The Denver Broncos and Buffalo Bills will kick off the Sunday Wildcard games at Highmark Stadium in what should be some decent weather for this time of year in Buffalo.
My Broncos vs. Bills player props and NFL picks for January 12 believe we will see both good and bad Bo Nix in northern New York.
Broncos vs Bills props
- Bo Nix Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+135 at BetMGM)
- Bo Nix Over 0.5 interceptions (-155 at BetMGM)
- Khalil Shakir Under 5.5 receptions (-155 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Broncos vs Bills props
Prop bet #1: Bo Nix Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
After getting off to a very slow start, rookie quarterback Bo Nix has really turned things around and become a legit playoff team quarterback. He has averaged 258.1 passing yards and 2.7 touchdowns per game over the last seven contests. Good Bo Nix has been much more prevalent lately in important games.
Since Week 5, Nix has thrown 10 touchdowns against split-safety coverage shells, which is second most in the NFL. The Buffalo Bills ran a split-safety coverage at the fifth highest rate in the NFL at 51.0%. This is a great matchup for him to find the endzone through the air.
Another great matchup reason to like this prop comes from the fact that Nix threw eight touchdowns this season while on the run this season. The Bills allowed 10 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks on the run this season, which is tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for the most in the NFL. This will also likely be a trailing game script and Nix will be needed to find the endzone.
Prop bet #2: Bo Nix Over 0.5 interceptions
While we will see good Bo Nix, we will also likely see bad Bo Nix on at least one pass. He has thrown 12 interceptions this season, which is tied for fourth most in the league. He even threw six of those during that great seven game stretch we talked about to end the season.
The Bills defense ranked fifth in the NFL with 16 interceptions this season. They were shockingly good at forcing interceptions on passes thrown behind the line of scrimmage. They had a league-leading four interceptions on passes targeted behind the line of scrimmage.
Meanwhile, Nix targeted wide receivers behind the line of scrimmage at the third highest rate in the NFL – 26.1% of his total attempts this season. Once again, the likely trailing game script will force Nix to make some tough passes and bad decisions.
Prop bet #3: Khalil Shakir Under 5.5 receptions
Khalil Shakir has been the clear favorite target for Josh Allen this season with a team leading 76 catches on 100 targets in 15 games. However, the addition of Amari Cooper and the return of Dalton Kincaid has certainly lowered his volume recently. He had 20 catches on 34 targets over his final five games.
Shakir typically will run his routes from the slot and that is where the Denver Broncos defense thrives. He aligned in the slot on 60.7% of his snaps and 63.3% of his routes. JaQuan McMillian aligned as a slot corner on a team-high 73.7% of his defensive snaps. He led the NFL with eight passes defensed and two interceptions without allowing a single touchdown while lined up in the slot.
Allen is not going to try and force passes to Shakir in a tough matchup when there are positive matchups elsewhere. This could be one of Shakir’s lowest volume games of the season. Especially if the Bills are playing with the lead and can rely on the run game and passes to the backs and tight ends.
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