The Buffalo Bills’ five-year rule at the top of the AFC East could end on Sunday, but don’t expect Josh Allen and Co. to give up the crown to the New England Patriots without a fight.
While the Patriots announced themselves with a 23-20 victory in Buffalo in early October, buckle up for more scoring in this second meeting, and that sets up some tasty wagers in the NFL player props market.
It’s set to be a chilly afternoon at Foxborough for this December 13 clash, so my top Bills vs. Patriots player props lean into the running game.
For more NFL picks, make sure to check out our full Bills vs. Patriots predictions!
Bills vs Patriots props
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 James Cook |
Over 80.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Rhamondre Stevenson |
Anytime touchdown | +190 |
| Hunter Henry |
Over 3.5 receptions | -106 |
Prop bet #1: James Cook Over 80.5 rushing yards
The Buffalo Bills didn’t pony up the trade assets to land a top-tier receiver at the deadline, and they’ve given every indication that the ground game is going to be their ticket to a deep playoff run.
Now is the time to prove it by riding James Cook against a New England Patriots run defense that’s looked a little creakier lately.
Cook has rushed for 340 yards across his last three outings, including 32 carries for 144 yards in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, and Buffalo will surely have reflected that he didn’t get enough touches in the Week 5 loss to the Patriots.
The threat of Allen using his legs, as he did last weekend with a 40-yard TD run against the Cincinnati Bengals, always buys Cook a little extra time in the backfield, and the Bills lead the NFL with 157.8 rushing yards per contest.
New England ranks third in rushing yards allowed — 89.5 per game — but the hosts haven’t held any of their past four opponents to less than 100 yards on the ground.
Cook finished strong last season with 100+ rushing yards in Weeks 15 and 16, and it’s tough to see Buffalo staying in the division race without similar production here.
Prop bet #2: Rhamondre Stevenson anytime touchdown
TreVeyon Henderson had some big plays while Rhamondre Stevenson was sidelined, but Mike Vrabel seems content to rely on a backfield committee as long as both running backs are healthy.
It was a true split workload in Week 13, before the Patriots’ bye, and yet Stevenson is almost +200 for a touchdown while Henderson is odds-on to score.
Even if that reflects Henderson emerging as the top goal-line option, there will be opportunities for Stevenson in the red zone to add to his touchdown tally. He gained minimal yardage last time out against Buffalo, but thundered in for two TDs that night.
With freezing temperatures expected, we could see New England lean a little further towards its rushing attack here, and it’s no secret that the Bills have had their struggles stopping the run. Only four teams are giving up more rushing yards per game than the visitors.
Whether it’s a short-yardage run or a catch leaking out of the backfield, Stevenson’s touchdown threat comes at a nice price.
Prop bet #3: Hunter Henry Over 3.5 receptions
Stefon Diggs was the difference-maker back in October against his old team, hauling in 10 catches for 146 yards. But I see Hunter Henry being another of Drake Maye’s go-to guys on Sunday in such a pivotal matchup for New England’s hopes of the AFC East title — and the AFC No.1 seed.
Henry has finished with 4+ receptions in three straight outings, and he’s had 22 targets in that span. When the Patriots need a third-down completion, he’s a proven option, and I like the idea of taking the yardage out of the equation with this prop. Some of these grabs could be on short checkdowns, but that doesn’t matter.
Henry ranks second on the team with 45 catches this season, and only Kayshon Boutte has more receiving TDs. That connection with Maye could tilt the scales in New England’s favor as the hosts try to keep pace with a Buffalo offense that scored 39 points last weekend.
This prop has been a winner in five of Henry’s past seven contests, and the tight end should have another busy afternoon here.
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