It's the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs, and postseason football tends to see teams emphasize defense and low-risk throws on offense.
That's a big reason why my NFL player props and NFL picks are betting on security-blanket pass catchers and defensive players to step up.
NFL Divisional Round prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Dawson Knox |
Over 21.5 receiving yards | -114 |
 Christian McCaffrey |
Over 49.5 receiving yards | -114 |
 Danielle Hunter |
Over 0.25 sacks | -130 |
 Colston Loveland |
Over 4.5 receptions | -140 |
 Matthew Stafford |
Over 0.5 interceptions | -108 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Divisional Round
Prop pick: Dawson Knox Over 21.5 receiving yards
The Buffalo Bills will have to shorten their passing game and rely on underneath throws with their WR corps decimated by injuries. That should lead to plenty of work for tight end Dawson Knox.
The Denver Broncos have a strong pass defense, but are vulnerable to tight ends, allowing the ninth-most receiving yards per game (59.7) to the position.
Knox has logged 24+ receiving yards in six of his last seven contests, averaging 36 yards per game over that span. He could get even more targets than usual with fellow TE Dalton Kincaid banged up.
Prop pick: Christian McCaffrey Over 49.5 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey is one of the best receiving running backs in NFL history and logged 924 receiving yards in the regular season before adding another 66 yards in the Wild Card Round.
He was routinely cranking out games of 50+ receiving yards before Pro Bowl tight end George Kittle got healthy and cut into his target share. Kittle tore his Achilles tendon last week, which should lead to heavy usage for C-Mac in a contest where the San Francisco 49ers have a projected passing game script as 7-point dogs.
The Seattle Seahawks have been getting gashed by pass-catching backs, ranking 27th in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to opposing RBs.
Prop pick: Danielle Hunter Over 0.25 sacks
The New England Patriots beat the tar out of Justin Herbert last week, but Drake Maye also got clobbered with five sacks.
Maye was sacked 47 times during the regular season and tends to hold on to the ball too long since his mediocre receivers struggle to separate from DBs. That will make Maye a sitting duck against the Houston Texans, who have a strong secondary and elite pass rushers off the edge.
Danielle Hunter finished the regular season third in the league in sacks (15) and fourth in pressures (89). He's picked up a sack in eight of his last 10 games, including last week's clash at Pittsburgh.
Prop pick: Colston Loveland Over 4.5 receptions
Colston Loveland had lofty expectations after the Chicago Bears selected him with the 10th pick in the 2025 draft. The rookie tight end took a couple of months to earn the trust of his coaches, but became a go-to target for Caleb Williams down the stretch.
Loveland has racked up at least six catches with more than 90 receiving yards in three straight games. He reeled in eight of 15 targets for 137 yards in last week's win against Green Bay.
With Bears wideouts Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore hindered by lower-body injuries, Williams will once again rely on his big-bodied tight end on a cold and windy night at Soldier Field.
Prop pick: Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 interceptions
Matthew Stafford is the MVP front-runner, but he won't find it easy to play mistake-free football on Sunday against an opportunistic Chicago defense.
Stafford has thrown just nine picks in the regular season and playoffs, but eight of those have come on the road. Meanwhile, this Bears defense is filled with ballhawks who helped them lead the NFL with 23 interceptions.
The weather will also make it tough for Stafford, who is used to playing indoors and will be throwing into heavy wind with gusts approaching 30 mph. He also has a sprained index finger on his throwing hand, which could lead to issues gripping the football in 20-degree temps.
NFL Divisional Round prop betting card
- Knox o21.5 receiving yards (-114)
- McCaffrey o49.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Danielle Hunter o0.25 sacks (-130)
- Loveland o4.5 receptions (-140)
- Stafford o0.5 interceptions (-108)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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