The Chicago Bears are a 52% road favorite in Week 6 against the Atlanta Falcons today, with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on FOX from Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Caleb Williams will return after a three-week absence for Chicago, but Atlanta still boasts the better offense, and my Bears vs. Falcons predictions are backing the hosts.
Read more in my NFL picks for Sunday, Oct. 18.
TOP Pick
Bears vs Falcons prediction today: Falcons moneyline
Play up to 55%.
The Atlanta Falcons will have Michael Penix Jr. back under center Sunday after he exited Week 5 with a rib injury. Penix has practiced fully this week, and Atlanta has averaged 34.3 points per game across his three starts.
The Falcons have also leaned on an excellent rushing attack, ranking second in the NFL with Bijan Robinson leading the league at 580 yards.
Caleb Williams will start too after being cleared from a hamstring injury that sidelined him for three games. Even in his return, Williams could be somewhat limited.
The Chicago Bears are also missing key defensive pieces in T.J. Edwards and Montez Sweat. With Penix trending toward a return and Atlanta's ground game rolling, I prefer the Falcons at 49%.
COVERS INTEL: Atlanta’s defensive front owns a 44.3% pressure rate, third-highest in the NFL, while generating pressure on 44.5% of dropbacks without blitzing. That consistent disruption gives the Falcons a defensive edge against Chicago.
Bears vs Falcons combo
I'm targeting a Falcons win at home, but I’m also leaning Under 53.5, with both quarterbacks carrying injury-related uncertainty and Atlanta likely leaning heavily on Robinson and the ground game.
That should help shorten the contest, while Chicago’s offense may also be more conservative if Williams returns at less than 100%.
If Tyson Bagent does start, that strengthens the under narrative immensely, as he's yet to throw for a touchdown in 64 pass attempts.
I'll round out this combo with Kyle Pitts Sr. to make just three catches. Chicago is allowing 3.6 receptions per game to opposing tight ends, while Pitts has caught eight passes over his last two contests. With his target volume also trending upward, he has a reasonable path to three grabs.
Bears vs Falcons combo
- Falcons moneyline
- Under 53.5
- Kyle Pitts Sr. Over 2.5 receptions
Bears vs Falcons touchdown scorer: Brian Robinson Jr.
Play up to 35%.
I'm looking to Bijan's backfield partner, Brian Robinson Jr., to find paydirt on Sunday. The former Alabama standout has already rushed for four touchdowns this season on only 51 carries, showing just how efficient he's been in scoring situations.
Those four scores came on only five red-zone carries, and while that touchdown rate is obviously unsustainable, it also shows Atlanta is willing to use Robinson near the goal line.
With Chicago missing key pieces up front and the Falcons expected to lean on the run, Robinson should have another chance to cash in from close range.
Bears vs Falcons player prop: Bijan Robinson Over 89.5 rushing yards
Play up to 58%.
As I previously discussed, Robinson has been one of the best running backs in the league. He's averaging 116 rushing yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. The Bears haven't been horrible against the run by traditional metrics, but they rank 24th in EPA allowed per rush, and without some important defensive pieces, slowing Robinson becomes that much harder.
He's cleared this number in two of his last three outings and finished just four yards shy of 90 in Week 5 against Baltimore. With Atlanta leaning heavily on its ground game, Robinson should see enough volume to make another run at 90+ yards.
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- Top picks: 2-5, -2.08 units
- Combos: 0-5, -5.00
Bears vs Falcons odds today
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Bears -1.5 (48%) | Falcons +1.5 (53%)
- Over/Under: Over 53.5 (46%) | Under 53.5 (55%)
- Moneyline: Bears 52% | Falcons 49%
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Bears vs Falcons trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Bears' last four games overall. Find more NFL betting trends for Bears vs. Falcons.
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How to watch Bears vs Falcons
| Location | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Ga. |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 18, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Bears vs Falcons latest injuries
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