Week 4 is shaping up to be a goldmine for NFL touchdown props, with injuries shaking up depth charts, red-zone roles becoming clearer, and soft matchups creating serious value.
Whether it’s a backup running back stepping into goal-line work or a WR1 flying under the radar, the board is loaded with opportunity. From early lines to sneaky longshots, now’s the time to lock in the best numbers before they move—and there’s no shortage of spots worth firing on with your NFL picks.
Best Week 4 TD props
| Matchup | TD Pick |
|---|---|
 Vikings vs  Steelers |
Warren +140 |
 Commanders vs  Falcons |
McCaffrey +700 |
 Saints vs  Bills |
Johnson +550 |
 Browns vs  Lions |
St. Brown +125 |
 Panthers vs  Patriots |
Henderson +160 |
 Chargers vs  Giants |
D/ST +500 |
 Eagles vs  Buccaneers |
Godwin +290 |
 Titans vs  Texans |
Chubb +155 |
 Colts vs  Rams |
Adams +130 |
 Jaguars vs  49ers |
Robinson +600 |
 Ravens vs  Chiefs |
Thornton +390 |
 Bears vs  Raiders |
Tucker +225 |
 Packers vs  Cowboys |
Doubs +195 |
 Jets vs  Dolphins |
Gordon +300 |
 Bengals vs  Broncos |
Franklin +245 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Vikings vs Steelers
Jaylen Warren (+140 at DraftKings) 5⭐
Jordan Addison is set to return for the Minnesota Vikings, which could complicate things, and Jordan Mason, who had all four red-zone carries last week, looks like a better option for a touchdown parlay at -135.
That said, Jaylen Warren at +140 presents great value. He currently ranks fourth in the league with seven carries inside the 10-yard line. While Kenneth Gainwell stole the tight touchdown last week, Warren has been handling most of the work in that area, with seven of Pittsburgh’s nine carries inside the 10.
Warren is also coming off his best usage week in Week 3, playing 78% of the snaps, running routes on 61% of dropbacks, and accounting for 83% of the team’s RB opportunities. At this price, he's offering solid value, much like Travis Etienne, who’s been excellent all season.
Commanders vs Falcons
Luke McCaffrey ( +750 at DraftKings) 4⭐
The Washington Commanders went heavy last week, using six offensive linemen on 35% of their snaps, per Jerry Donabedian. That approach could shift in Week 4 with Jayden Daniels returning to limited practice on Wednesday. There's optimism that he suits up on Sunday.
Terry McLaurin, however, didn’t practice after exiting last week with a quad injury. If he's out, there’s room for other receivers to step up — especially with Deebo Samuel playing just 39% of the snaps.
Luke McCaffrey matched Samuel’s route share and turned his three targets into 56 yards and a touchdown last week. With the Atlanta Falcons struggling on offense, Washington’s backfield in flux, and McLaurin potentially sidelined, taking a shot on a lower-tier Commanders WR in this indoor matchup makes sense.
If Daniels starts and McLaurin sits, you could see this move closer to +300.
Saints vs Bills
Ty Johnson (+550 at DraftKings) 3⭐
Juwan Johnson ( +265 at DraftKings) 3⭐
The New Orleans Saints are likely to be throwing early and often as 15-point road underdogs, and while the Buffalo Bills’ TD prices are at season lows, there could be value in the backup RBs with potential garbage time work. I’m double-dipping in this game.
Ty Johnson has been getting more looks behind James Cook. He played 26% of snaps last week compared to just 7% for Ray Davis, and saw three carries along with two targets. On the season, Johnson has matched Davis in red-zone opportunities despite less hype. In a game where the Bills could be up big, Johnson may get closing work, and at +550, I prefer his price over Davis at +320. I’m in for 0.75 units.
On the Saints side, I’m backing Juwan Johnson at +265 (would buy down to +230). He’s second in the target pecking order behind Chris Olave and has just as many red-zone targets as the WR1. Only three tight ends in the league have more red-zone targets than Johnson. Another 0.75 units here.
Browns vs Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown (+125 at DraftKings) 4⭐
You can’t run on the Cleveland Browns, and the Detroit Lions RB touchdown prices just aren’t good enough to take the shot. Cleveland has allowed only one rushing touchdown all season and is giving up a league-best 57 rushing yards per game.
However, they have been vulnerable through the air, giving up six passing scores.
Inside the 10-yard line, Amon-Ra St. Brown is the only Lions receiver consistently getting looks. He has four targets there and has converted three into touchdowns. His +125 price isn’t great in what could be a lower-scoring game, but he's clearly the go-to option near the goal line. I wouldn’t take it below +120, but it’s still the best value among Detroit options this week.
Brock Wright is an interesting long shot at +1300. He already has an 8-yard TD this year and could get involved if Detroit uses heavy sets near the goal line. I could see them getting creative in close against this Browns front.
Panthers vs Patriots
TreVeyon Henderson (+160 at DraftKings) 5⭐
Week 4 marks the real start of TreVeyon Henderson’s season. The rookie RB took over the lead role after Rhamondre Stevenson lost two fumbles and Antonio Gibson added another. With the New England Patriots committing five turnovers last week, holding onto the ball is a key focus heading into Week 4.
Henderson handled all RB opportunities after the fumbles and was the first RB to take drills at practice on Wednesday. This offense has zero reliable WRs, so Henderson at +160 is a solid look if he officially claims the No. 1 role. With other books offering +130, this price is moving fast.
Inside the red zone, the Patriots have had seven carries, and right now, Henderson is the most trusted option. Hunter Henry at +200 for a touchdown is another potential play. Only the Cowboys allowed more rushing TDs than the Carolina Panthers last season.
Chargers vs Giants
Chargers D/ST(+500 at DraftKings) 3⭐
Last week, I was kicking myself for not betting on defensive scores against weak quarterbacks. Cam Ward, Jake Browning, Tyrod Taylor, and Michael Penix all threw pick-sixes, and we could see a couple more this week.
Jaxson Dart is the starter moving forward for the New York Giants, and Malik Nabers was a DNP at practice on Wednesday. It’s shaping up to be a tough debut for the rookie QB against one of the best secondaries in football. The Los Angeles Chargers don’t blitz much, which will leave Dart with plenty to read on his dropbacks — they rank first in non-blitz EPA/play.
Defensive or special teams scoring is priced at +500, so while Omarion Hampton is too short for my taste and the trio of Chargers WRs are all at +170, let’s bet on an ugly debut from the Giants’ starter.
Eagles vs Buccaneers
Chris Godwin ( +290 at DraftKings) 5⭐
Mike Evans is expected to miss Week 4, and Puka Nacua and Davante Adams just lit up the Philadelphia Eagles' secondary for a combined 14 catches on 23 targets, 168 yards, and a touchdown. Chris Godwin wasn’t placed on PUP because he was always expected to return for Week 4.
All signs point to him playing, and this price is way too long. If he’s ruled out, the bet voids, but he’s likely suiting up. Even if he's on a snap count, his red-zone role should remain intact.
The Bucs went just 1-for-5 in the red zone last week. Injuries along the offensive line and the use of a smaller back like Bucky Irving have made short-yardage situations tough. Godwin has been a red-zone weapon, catching all five of his red-zone targets from Weeks 1–5 for two scores. Evans had the other six.
Emeka Egbuka is coming off a season-low in usage due to a hip injury, so Godwin could immediately step into a WR1-type role. I'd play this down to +180.
Titans vs Texans
Nick Chubb (+155 at DraftKings) 5⭐
There’s still nothing to like about the Tennessee Titans offense, and Brian Callahan could be canned before Mike McDaniel. The Houston Texans offense has looked rough, but the Titans, fresh off allowing three touchdowns to Jonathan Taylor, are the ultimate slump-busters.
This all comes down to price on the Texans' backfield. Nick Chubb is still the starter, but the split is shifting, and it's closer to a 60/40 share with rookie Woody Marks. I’m targeting a Chubb touchdown at +130 or better, and DraftKings has an early number at +155, while other books are as short as +105.
If that +155 is gone when you're ready to bet and Chubb drops to +115 or shorter, Marks becomes the value pick. His odds range from +180 to +375, but he’s a solid play at +200 or better if Chubb’s number tightens. Both are getting red-zone work, and there’s a realistic path for both to score on Sunday.
Colts vs Rams
Davante Adams (+130 at DraftKings) 4⭐
No wide receiver has more red-zone targets this season than Davante Adams. His current touchdown price of +130 isn’t ideal, but it's as short as even money at some books. After watching Matthew Stafford lock in on Adams inside the 20 last week, I’m comfortable betting this down to +115 in a strong matchup against the Indianapolis Colts.
Last week, the Los Angeles Rams went just 1-for-4 in the red zone, with Kyren Williams failing to convert any of his three red-zone carries. This week, they could catch a break with Colts starting corner Kenny Moore looking questionable due to an Achilles issue.
It’s an indoor game with a total pushing 50, and there will be scoring at SoFi on Sunday. Adams might have the most reliable red-zone role of any pass-catcher in the league.
Jaguars vs 49ers
Demarcus Robinson ( +600 at DraftKings) 3⭐
The San Francisco 49ers are dealing with a fresh wave of injuries. Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings didn’t practice on Wednesday, though Brock Purdy did. With Demarcus Robinson back from suspension, he could be in line for a significant role on Sunday. Kendrick Bourne hasn’t moved the needle, and neither Skyy Moore nor MVS has inspired much.
Robinson is a bit of a dart throw in a game clouded by injury uncertainty, so waiting for more clarity may be smart, but you'll need to move quickly if the opportunity opens. He scored seven touchdowns last season on just 31 receptions and had only three fewer red-zone targets than Puka Nacua in 2024. He converted five of his 20 targets into scores.
It’s a lower-confidence play early in the week, but at +600, it's worth a half-unit. There’s an outside shot Robinson ends up functioning as the WR1 with Purdy under center.
Ravens vs Chiefs
Tyquan Thornton (+390 at DraftKings) 4⭐
The Baltimore Ravens defense has been struggling, and the Kansas City Chiefs, who pass at a Top-10 rate because they can't run the ball, will be hucking it from start to finish Sunday afternoon. Xavier Worthy could be back this week, but Tyquan Thornton's role is hard to ignore.
Thornton leads the team in target share (21.4%) with Worthy out, per John Daigle, and also led all pass-catchers last week in route and snap share. He posted a nine-target game and scored from the 5-yard line.
Even if Worthy plays, Thornton at +390 for a touchdown is my favorite value in this game. If Worthy is out, this price will drop significantly. Worthy is priced into this number, so if you wait, make sure you get to it quick if Worthy is out.
I'll take +390 as the No.3 pass option in a spread-it-around offense in a high total game.
Bears vs Raiders
Tre Tucker (+225 at DraftKings) 3⭐
The Cowboys didn’t take advantage of a weak Chicago Bears secondary. This week, the Las Vegas Raiders face the Bears in an indoor game with Chicago missing starting CB Jaylon Johnson and potentially Kyler Gordon. LB TJ Edwards is also questionable.
The last time this defense was indoors, with both Edwards and Johnson playing, Detroit dropped 52 points and Jared Goff threw for five touchdowns.
Tre Tucker had a breakout game last week, and his TD price has adjusted, but maybe not by enough.
Neither tight end Michael Mayer, who suffered a concussion in Week 3, nor Brock Bowers, who’s underperformed, stands out at their respective prices. Jakobi Myers is +135 for a TD, but the best value on this offense might be the No. 2 WR at +225.
I might be chasing here, but Tucker ran a 97% route share last week, and this passing game has the potential for a big outing. For me, the best value is grabbing the longest price among Myers, Bowers, Ashton Jeanty, and Tucker.
Tucker is also the only WR with red-zone targets this season and has two touchdowns on two red-zone targets.
Packers vs Cowboys
Romeo Doubs (+195 at DraftKings) 5⭐
The last time the Dallas Cowboys played at home, they gave up 450 passing yards to Russell Wilson, who doesn’t even have a starting job now. This week, they’re dealing with major issues in the secondary: three defensive backs already ruled out and three more, including two starters, listed as questionable.
The Green Bay Packers offense looked rough last week, but that was against a Browns defense that’s made everyone look bad. Week 4 is a much better spot to buy in.
The WR rotation in Green Bay can be tricky, but Romeo Doubs at +195 is too good to pass up—especially with some books already down to +145. He’s running more routes and playing more snaps than anyone not named Jordan Love. He leads the WRs in both target share and air-yard share, and he’s clearly the go-to option in the red zone.
Doubs has three red-zone targets, the most among Packers receivers, and this same Dallas secondary gave up 309 receiving yards and three touchdowns to Malik Nabers and Wan'Dale Robinson in Week 2.
There’s nothing wrong with long shots like Tucker Kraft (+200) or Matthew Golden (+215), but getting the WR1 at +195 is a gift. I'd play it down to +170.
Jets vs Dolphins
Ollie Gordon (+300 at DraftKings) 5⭐
It’s not too early to jump on this Monday night price for Ollie Gordon. He had four of the six red-zone carries last week against the Bills on TNF, including a touchdown from the 2-yard line on the opening drive. On that drive, he totaled four carries from the 21-yard line. Gordon is the red-zone back, with De'Von Achane handling work between the 20s.
I’m not sold on the Miami Dolphins offense, but the New York Jets defense isn’t great either. They’re giving up over 30 points per game, ranking 28th in EPA/play but ninth in success rate, which means they’re prone to giving up big plays. They also have three defensive starters listed as questionable mid-week.
Jaylen Wright was back last week, but Gordon got the goal-line work (four of nine carries inside the 20 in Week 3). Achane will need breaks since he’s carrying much of the Miami offense, and Gordon showed he can execute when called upon in Week 3. That should build more trust in the rookie, especially in what looks like a close game on Monday night.
Bengals vs Broncos
Troy Franklin (+245 at DraftKings) 5⭐
This is another spot where betting on the Denver Broncos defense or special teams to score at +450 isn’t the worst idea, but Troy Franklin is the real value this week at +245 to find the end zone.
He leads the team in targets per route run at 24% and is running a 90% route share. Last week’s game was quiet, but it came against a strong Chargers secondary. This week’s home matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals is much more favorable.
Franklin also leads all Denver pass-catchers in red-zone targets with four, converting three into touchdowns. With Courtland Sutton drawing more attention after a 6-118-1 performance, Franklin should benefit from softer coverage.
Bengals starting corner Cam Taylor-Britt missed last week and may be out again. I’ve had Franklin circled since Week 2, and this is a good spot to buy. I'd play it down to +200.
Week 4 anytime touchdown parlay
Jordan Mason TD
Omarion Hampton TD
Nick Chubb TD
Ashton Jeanty TD
Let’s build a four-leg touchdown parlay featuring red-zone running backs, and add the 15% DraftKings boost. Don't be shy to use the DraftKings Ghost Leg promo if you got with the TNF offering,
Mason is now the guy in Minnesota, and gets a Steelers defense allowing 25.7 points per game and ranking 25th in rushing touchdowns allowed.
Hampton continues to dominate the RB work in a strong offense, and the Chargers are 6-point favorites against a rookie QB making his NFL debut — ideal game script for RB scoring.
Chubb boosts the parlay odds and draws a soft Titans matchup. Houston’s offense should bounce back in Week 4, and Chubb is still getting the majority of the work, including valuable red-zone touches.
Lastly, Jeanty faces the Bears at home in one of the higher-total games of the week. He’s a solid finisher in a spot that projects plenty of scoring.
Strong red-zone roles, favorable matchups, and a boost make this parlay worth the play.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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