The Minnesota Vikings have found a bell-cow running back in Jordan Mason, and unsurprisingly, he has the best odds to score a touchdown at -135. I won’t be surprised if he hits paydirt against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but I’m looking at longer odds in Minnesota’s receiving corps.
Pittsburgh’s offense is banged up, with both Jaylen Warren and Jonnu Smith listed as questionable. They’ve been reception hogs for Aaron Rodgers, but with both operating at less than 100%, I’ll turn my attention elsewhere with my NFL picks.
Here are my best Vikings vs. Steelers anytime touchdown picks for Week 4’s international matchup in Dublin, featuring a pair of tight ends who should benefit from quick throws and checkdowns on Sunday, September 28.
Vikings anytime touchdown pick
Pat Freiermuth (+450 at FanDuel)
This is a long shot, but hear me out. Jonnu Smith leads the Pittsburgh Steelers in receptions at 12 on 13 targets, while Pat Freiermuth has seven catches on 10 targets. He’s played 97 snaps compared to Smith’s 116, but this isn’t a major gulf, and both players have seen the field a ton thus far.
The Minnesota Vikings rank in the Top 5 in pressure and quarterback knockdown percentage, and they’re Top-10 in sacks. The defense is elite, and Aaron Rodgers should be looking to get the ball out of his hands quickly. His 5.1 intended air yards per pass attempt ranks last among quarterbacks, so he’s already shown his penchant for short-yardage looks.
With Smith and Jaylen Warren ailing, I’m willing to take a shot on Freiermuth finding the end zone for the first time this season. He’s a reliable, big-bodied weapon who can serve as a safety valve for Rodgers, especially when the Steelers are looking for points in the red zone.
Steelers anytime touchdown pick
T.J. Hockenson (+290 at FanDuel)
T.J. Hockenson hauled in just four receptions for 27 yards over the first two weeks of the season before breaking out for a 5/49/1 line in Week 3. Carson Wentz made his first start in place of the injured JJ McCarthy, and Hockenson was a prime beneficiary.
Pittsburgh’s pass defense hasn’t been great, but the pass rush remains elite, and the return of DeShon Elliott and Joey Porter Jr. should bolster the secondary. That may mean more dumpoffs to Hockenson from a quarterback who already loves throwing to tight ends.
The return of Jordan Addison should open up more space for Hockenson across the middle of the field, too, and I’ll bank on another touchdown in Week 4. Pittsburgh got torched by Hunter Henry last week to the tune of 8-90-2.
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