Week 18 is always the trickiest slate of the season, and NFL touchdown props are no exception.
With playoff seeding, incentives, injuries, and surprise rest spots all in play, there’s a lot to navigate in the final week.
Some teams are all-in, others are emptying the bench, and the best TD bets live in that gray area. Finding motivation, usage, and price is everything as we close the regular season.
Let's dive into my latest NFL picks for Week 18.
| Matchup | TD Pick |
|---|---|
 CAR vs  TB |
Dowdle +120 |
 SEA vs  SF |
Charbonnet +130 |
 NO vs  ATL |
Pettis +325 |
 CLE vs  CIN |
Jeudy +300 |
 DAL vs  NYG |
Robinson +170 |
 GB vs  MIN |
Currently OTB |
 IND vs  HOU |
Collins +160 |
 TEN vs  JAC |
Ayomanor +450 |
 KC vs  LV |
Mayer +380 |
 DET vs  CHI |
Zaccheaus +260 |
 LAC vs  DEN |
Engram +400 |
 MIA vs  NE |
Chism +450 |
 WAS vs  PHI |
Currently OTB |
 ARI vs  LAR |
McBride +160 |
 NYJ vs  BUF |
Shakir +260 |
 BAL vs  PIT |
Heyward +850 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Panthers vs Buccaneers TD pick
Rico Dowdle (+120 at DraftKings) B+
In one of the few games where both teams have everything on the line, I’m backing the running back who controls 66% of the backfield workload and stands to earn an additional $250,000 with one more touchdown.
This isn’t a longshot play, but with the Carolina Panthers in must-win mode, Rico Dowdle has clearly been the more effective back and should push past 20 opportunities. In a game plan built around him, the volume and motivation line up well for another trip to the end zone.
Seahawks vs 49ers
Zach Charbonnet (+130 at DraftKings) A-
With everything on the line, the Seattle Seahawks aren’t going to get creative, especially near the goal line, where Zach Charbonnet has taken over. I’d be interested in Kenneth Walker at 30 cents longer, but the reality is Charbonnet is matching him in overall touches while completely dominating the red-zone work.
Last week, Charbonnet handled six of the seven red-zone carries, and over the last three games, he has taken 10 of the team’s 11 red-zone rushes. He’s turned that volume into three touchdowns and 23 yards, while Walker has just two yards and no scores on his opportunities.
At this usage, Charbonnet is playable up to +110.
Saints vs Falcons
Dante Pettis (+325 at DraftKings) B
Tyler Shough is in the Rookie of the Year conversation and could be asked to throw more than usual on Sunday. Chris Olave is out with a blood clot, Mason Tipton missed last week and is questionable, which leaves Kevin Austin and Dante Pettis to lead the pass catchers.
With the New Orleans Saints still shorthanded at running back and leaning into the passing game, the volume should remain there.
It's not a big name, but opportunity and price are indeed here. The last three QBs to play the Atlanta Falcons have totaled seven TDs and almost 1,000 yards.
Browns vs Bengals
Jerry Jeudy (+300 at DraftKings) A
Shedeur Sanders and this Cleveland Browns offense should be motivated to put a stamp on this game against a Bengals defense that has been getting carved up. Harold Fannin Jr. has been the preferred option to back, but he exited Week 17 with a groin injury, which opened the door for Jerry Jeudy to step up. Jeudy led the team with seven targets and ran a route on 100% of the dropbacks.
He isn’t facing real competition from the wideout depth behind him, and if Fannin is limited or out, Jeudy becomes the clear focal point of this offense. At +300, it’s a strong number that I’d play down to +220, especially for a team that can’t run the ball right now.
Cowboys vs Giants
Wan'Dale Robinson (+170 at DraftKings) B+
The New York Giants finally got the passing game going last week, and Wan’Dale Robinson was the clear focal point. He caught 11 passes on 14 targets, while no other New York receiver saw more than two looks. Robinson now sits at 92 catches and nine touchdowns on the season, and even with a rib injury, the usage is impossible to ignore.
With milestones within reach and a favorable matchup against the Dallas Cowboys defense, this price is too generous. I’m buying Robinson down to +150/+155.
Packers vs Vikings
Check back soon when more markets are available!
Colts vs Texans
Nico Collins (+160 at DraftKings) B+
The Houston Texans still have plenty to play for. The Texans remain alive in the division race, and even if that falls short, holding onto the five seed is important to avoid a first-round matchup against a 12-win team.
While Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel scored last week, their usage has been volatile and unreliable. Nico Collins remains the clear focal point of this offense and now draws a favorable setup against an Indianapolis Colts team starting a late-round rookie quarterback and playing for nothing. That opens the door for short fields and extra scoring chances.
Collins has been priced much shorter than this at points throughout the season, making this number attractive. I’d buy him to +140.
Titans vs Jaguars
Elic Ayomanor (+450 at DraftKings) A
It’s a good time to back the Tennessee Titans’ offense, which has scored more than 110 points over its last four games and gets favorable weather to close out the season. The Jacksonville Jaguars can be competitive, but there’s also a real chance the Jaguars limit or pull starters in this spot.
This is an excellent price on a true WR1. Rookie Elic Ayomanor led the team last week in routes, snap share, and targets, and cashed a red-zone TD at +400. Cam Ward has taken a clear step forward in December, and this number is being priced like a WR4 in a mediocre offense. I’d buy this to +300 or +330.
Chiefs vs Raiders
Michael Mayer (+380 at DraftKings) B
This is a strong price in a game that could feature some of the lowest scoring on the Week 18 slate. It’s the Kenny Pickett version of a struggling Las Vegas Raiders offense, but Michael Mayer was heavily involved last week, with Brock Bowers shut down. He led the team with 10 targets, caught nine balls for 89 yards, and saw a red-zone look, even if it didn’t turn into a score.
The matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs is tough, but the game being indoors helps, and the price more than accounts for the risk. For what could be the most involved pass catcher in this offense, it’s worth a look.
Lions vs Bears
Olamide Zaccheaus (+260 at DraftKings) A-
Olamide Zaccheaus was a late scratch last week due to illness and should be good to go by Sunday. Jahdae Walker absorbed most of his work, running routes on 71% of dropbacks and finishing with 30 yards and a red-zone target. If Zaccheaus returns, he’s expected to reclaim a larger role, especially with Rome Odunze potentially missing his fifth straight game.
The Chicago Bears are still playing for the No. 2 seed, and Ben Johnson gets another shot at his former team. The Bears torched the Detroit Lions in Week 2, hanging 52 points while Chicago WRs piled up 234 yards and two TDs.
There’s some risk the illness lingers, but with touchdown prices already moving on Luther Burden and Coltson Loveland, this is a spot worth monitoring closely through the week.
Chargers vs Broncos
Evan Engram (+400 at DraftKings) B+
Evan Engram isn’t a throwaway piece in this offense, and while he hasn’t scored since Week 5, this is a strong spot to buy in at a big number given his usage.
The Los Angeles Chargers are expected to rest starters, giving the Denver Broncos a clean path to points. Engram draws targets on 22% of his routes, and while Adam Trautman is logging heavy snaps, it’s largely as a blocker with just one red-zone target all season.
Engram saw two red-zone targets last week, caught both, but failed to score. Still a great role at this price.
Dolphins vs Patriots
Efton Chism (+450 at DraftKings) A
The New England Patriots still have everything to play for, with outcomes ranging from the No. 1 seed to the No. 3 seed. That urgency sets up well for a focused offensive game plan against the Miami Dolphins in cold-weather conditions.
Efton Chism ran the second-most routes last week, played more than 90% of the snaps in the second half, and cashed a 10-yard touchdown in the third quarter. His snap share should remain high, and with Stefon Diggs dealing with legal issues and Kayshon Boutte still in the concussion protocol, Chism could be a featured wideout in Week 18.
At +450, I’d play it down to +300.
Commanders vs Eagles
Check back soon when more markets are available!
Cardinals vs Rams
Trey McBride (+160 at DraftKings) A
The Los Angeles Rams may not be playing for much by kickoff, but Trey McBride is still chasing history. Since Jacoby Brissett took over in Week 6, McBride has piled up 899 yards and 10 touchdowns, putting him on pace for one of the best tight end seasons ever.
There’s also a real chance the Arizona Cardinals aren’t facing Rams starters in this spot, which could push this number down toward the +120 range. He was priced at +110 last week and has returned +5.8 units over the past 10 weeks on anytime TD bets.
One more game to pad the stats, and the Cardinals have shown all year they’re happy to let Brissett feed him.
Jets vs Bills
Khalil Shakir (+260 at DraftKings) B+
The Buffalo Bills are still playing for seeding and will play their last game at Highmark Stadium, but there’s a real chance some starters get limited or rested, which makes TD props in this spot a bit risky, especially with a late kickoff.
That said, Khalil Shakir has plenty to play for. He’s one TD away from unlocking a $150,000 bonus and draws about as soft a matchup as it gets. The New York Jets have lost four straight games by 20-plus points, and Shakir remains Buffalo’s highest-volume pass catcher.
He should see enough run to contribute early or be given a chance to hit the bonus, even if Josh Allen is limited. There’s risk betting it early, but the angle makes sense.
Ravens vs Steelers
Connor Heyward (+850 at DraftKings) B
With the season on the line, the Pittsburgh Steelers may be forced to get creative, especially in the red zone, where a lack of imagination arguably cost them last week. Without DK Metcalf, the Steelers are thin on true scoring threats, which opens the door for Arthur Smith to involve Connor Heyward in short-yardage situations.
Heyward had two carries for 26 yards last week and could also see targets if Darnell Washington is limited. He scored in Week 15 on a goal-line carry and has six rushing attempts over the last three games. Since that week, he’s the only Steelers player to score on a rush from inside the five. It’s a long shot, but after how ugly this offense looked, a creative wrinkle wouldn’t be surprising.
Week 18 anytime touchdown parlay
Nico Collins
D'Andre Swift
Travis Etienne
Derrick Henry
There’s motivation all over this four-leg TD parlay. Houston should control the game at home against a rookie QB. The Bears need a win, and Ben Johnson will be motivated to pour it on against the Lions while they’re vulnerable.
Travis Etienne continues to dominate backfield touches for an offense scoring at a high clip and pushing for the division. Derrick Henry can close it out Sunday night against a Pittsburgh team that struggles to sustain offense.
My weekly NFL TD props column this season is up +15.92 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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