Week 14 is here, and NFL touchdown props are once again loaded with value — the kind sharp bettors can’t afford to miss.
I’m up over 30 units on the season, and this week’s slate brings another set of mispriced red-zone roles, emerging rookies, and soft defensive matchups worth attacking.
From overlooked goal-line vultures to ascending WR2s with growing target shares, Week 14 offers plenty of chances to keep building the bankroll with your NFL picks and anytime touchdown props.
| Matchup | TD Pick |
|---|---|
 PIT vs  BAL |
Warren +180 |
 SEA vs  ATL |
Sills +650 |
 TEN vs  CLE |
Fannin +300 |
 MIA vs  NYJ |
Mitchell +245 |
 NO vs  TB |
Vele +350 |
 IND vs  JAC |
Strange +330 |
 WAS vs  MIN |
McLaurin +220 |
 CIN vs  BUF |
Perine +310 |
 DEN vs  LV |
Engram +390 |
 CHI vs  GB |
Loveland +425 |
 LAR vs  ARI |
Knight +185 |
 HOU vs  KC |
Stover +1100 |
 PHI vs  LAC |
Brown +180 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
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Steelers vs Ravens TD pick:
Jaylen Warren ( +180 at DraftKings) A
The Pittsburgh Steelers leaned on Jaylen Warren more last week than they had in recent games, giving him the majority of the red-zone work. He had the team’s only carry inside the 5 — which he converted for a TD — and added two more red-zone targets.
Even though the Steelers alternated drives with Kenneth Gainwell, Warren consistently got the first crack and the valuable touches near the goal line.
I saw it firsthand while chasing a Gainwell TD at +220 and watching Warren outcarry him 2:1. The quarterback situation is shaky, but against a Baltimore Ravens defense that’s lost its edge and just gave up plenty of production to Bengals running backs, Warren should handle a heavy workload and finish drives.
He was -155 for a TD just four games ago.
Seahawks vs Falcons
David Sills (+650 at DraftKings) B
Another one with some risk, but the upside is strong at this number. Drake London still wasn’t practicing as of Wednesday and has already missed two games with a PCL injury. With the Atlanta Falcons sitting at 4-8 and out of the playoff race, there’s no reason to rush him back.
In London’s absence, David Sills has become Kirk Cousins’ preferred target, scoring in two straight games at +500 and +850. The matchup against Seattle isn’t easy, but it’s an indoor home game and likely a pass-heavy script.
If London is ruled out, this should be in the +300 to +350 range. Worth a half-unit flyer at this price.
Titans vs Browns
Harold Fannin Jr. (+300 at DraftKings) A
I don’t usually double-dip in back-to-back weeks, but Harold Fannin and Shedeur Sanders are clicking, and the rookie tight end cashed a +425 TD for me last week in brutal weather, so I’m going back in Week 14 despite the price drop.
Fannin has now led the Cleveland Browns in receptions and targets in two straight games and profiles as a potential No. 1 option against a weak Tennessee Titans defense.
Sanders looks comfortable, and he won’t be throwing in 30-mph winds. Fannin has fully taken over the TE1 role from David Njoku and has been more reliable than Jerry Jeudy. I’d play his TD down to +230.
Dolphins vs Jets
Adonai Mitchell (+245 at DraftKings) A
After posting an 8/102/1 line last week in just his third game with the offense, Adonai Mitchell looks like he’s settling into a suddenly competent New York Jets attack. Across his three games as a Jet, he’s racked up 457 air yards and 27 targets — production that should put his TD price below +200, yet the market still hasn’t adjusted.
John Metchie saw eight targets last week, but much of that came late. Mitchell is the one getting the deeper routes and the higher-value opportunities. The Jets may not score more than 20 points, but with the Miami Dolphins accounting for Breece Hall, Mitchell should see plenty of shots on Sunday.
Saints vs Buccaneers
Devaughn Vele (+350 at DraftKings) B+
The New Orleans Saints have a clear problem: they can’t run the ball. Alvin Kamara is questionable, and Devin Neal didn’t exactly take control of the backfield, managing just 47 yards on 14 carries against Miami. The real takeaway from that game was the emergence of Devaughn Vele, who’s starting to break out in his second season.
Vele has 11 catches on 15 targets over the last two weeks and found the end zone on one of his two red-zone looks. Now, he gets a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that is one of only eight teams allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, meaning the Saints will likely lean on the pass again — even if Kamara returns.
Vele is functioning as a true WR2 with WR1 upside and could easily lead this game in receiving yards if New Orleans is forced into a pass-heavy script. I’d play his number down to +270.
Colts vs Jaguars
Brenton Strange (+330 at DraftKings) A+
Brenton Strange found the end zone for the first time this season in his second game back, and the usage was no fluke — only Jakobi Meyers saw more targets. With the Indianapolis Colts on deck and no Sauce Gardner (a big shift from last week’s matchup vs. Tennessee), the passing volume should stay elevated.
Strange is emerging as a legitimate top receiving option in this Jacksonville Jaguars offense. Brian Thomas hasn’t looked like last year’s version of himself, Meyers offers limited upside, and Parker Washington left Week 13 with a hip injury and didn’t return.
Now, he draws a premium matchup: Indianapolis allows the second-most yards to opposing tight ends. Given the role, matchup, and red-zone involvement, a Strange anytime TD is playable down to +240.
Commanders vs Vikings
Terry McLaurin (+220 at DraftKings) A+
In his first game back after a four-week absence, Washington Commanders WR Terry McLaurin drew 14 targets — tied for the most of any player in Week 13. Even more impressive, he did it on just 49% of the snaps with Marcus Mariota under center while also scoring a +310 touchdown vs. a tough Denver defense.
Now, he steps into an indoor matchup against a Minnesota Vikings team that can’t generate much offense, and he could see a QB upgrade if Jayden Daniels returns.
Even if he doesn’t, getting a receiver at better than +200 who’s capable of 10+ targets is an easy play in Week 14. His snap share will only rise as he gets back to full form. With that Week 13 volume, he should be closer to +150.
Bengals vs Bills
Samaje Perine (+310 at DraftKings) A+
Samaje Perine is a sneaky +310 TD play this week against a Buffalo Bills defense I still don’t trust against the run. Only three teams have allowed more rushing yards than Buffalo, and their 15 rushing TDs allowed to RBs are the most in the league.
Perine returned last week and immediately carved into Chase Brown’s workload, even getting the only RB carry inside the 5. He finished with 14 carries—just one fewer than Brown—and logged a 40% snap share.
The Cincinnati Bengals may want to ease Brown’s workload after weeks of heavy usage, and Perine looks positioned to handle high-value touches near the goal line in a Joe Burrow offense with a 52.5-point total.
Broncos vs Raiders
Evan Engram (+390 at DraftKings) A+
The Denver Broncos can’t run the ball without J.K. Dobbins, and RJ Harvey has managed just 65 rushing yards on 24 carries over his last two games.
Meanwhile, Evan Engram led all pass-catchers on SNF with six receptions on nine targets for 79 yards. He’s averaging 5.8 targets per game since Week 4, putting him inside the top 10 among tight ends.
Denver could push toward 30 points indoors against this Las Vegas Raiders defense, and getting one of their most heavily targeted pass-catchers at this price makes Engram a strong TD play this week.
Bears vs Packers
Colston Loveland (+425 at DraftKings) A
I’m fully buying into this Chicago Bears offense. Kyle Monangai was the best value last week, but his number has moved too much for Week 14, so I’m turning to another rookie: Coltson Loveland at +425.
Loveland has two red-zone targets over his last three games and turned one into a touchdown. He’s contributing outside the red zone as well — he tied for the team lead with six targets against the Eagles and led all Bears pass catchers with 63 air yards.
Cole Kmet found the end zone last week, but at +425, I’m happy to back the tight end running 70% of the routes and lining up all over the formation. I’m riding Ben Johnson’s offense weekly from here on out.
Rams vs Cardinals
Bam Knight (+185 at DraftKings) B-
There’s some risk here with Trey Benson eligible to return now that his practice window is open, but he was a DNP on Wednesday. With Emari Demercado dealing with an ankle injury and Michael Carter operating as the pass-catching back, Bam Knight could be the Arizona Cardinals' RB1 again this week.
Knight has scored in three straight games and has been as short as +135 in the TD market. We saw last week that the Los Angeles Rams can be beaten on the ground, as Carolina moved the ball easily in Week 13. If Benson sits and Demercado is limited, this number could drop to around +140, which is closer to where the fair price should be.
Even if Benson suits up, Knight still has paths to cash as the likely preferred red-zone option.
Texans vs Chiefs
Cade Stover (+1100 at DraftKings) B-
Let’s take a swing at what could be a low-scoring game. Cade Stover played only 41% of the snaps last week against the Colts and finished with two catches for 16 yards, but he also logged four carries and has taken on a short-yardage role. Three of those four carries came in the red zone, and one of his two targets was inside the 10.
Coaches love showing off their creativity near the goal line, and Stover is exactly the type of player who can end up on the receiving end of a gadget look. This is a half-unit play for me, and I’d take it down to +800.
Eagles vs Chargers
AJ Brown (+180 at DraftKings) A-
AJ Brown’s production is fully back. He has six red-zone targets over his last three games. The Philadelphia Eagles offense hasn’t been lighting up the scoreboard, but Brown was one of the most heavily targeted players last week with 12 looks, converting them into 10 catches and two touchdowns, giving him three scores over his last two games.
He was +155 to score last week, and instead of adjusting his number down, the market has gone the other way. Now, he gets an indoor matchup with an offense looking to respond after a holiday letdown. His fair price should be around +150.
Week 14 anytime touchdown parlay
Chase Brown
Bucky Irving
De'Von Achane
Quinshon Judkins
Both backs for the Bengals can find the endzone vs. the Bills. Bucky Irving will get a bigger leash in his second game back after taking 17 carries last week to Rachaad White's two. De'Von Achane might be the least-celebrated player in football right now, and the Dolphins are running the ball. Quinshon Judkins could carry the ball 30 times this week, with Dylan Sampson possibly out with a calf injury.
My weekly NFL TD props column this season is +30.387 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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