The Michigan Wolverines are going for a third straight win when they welcome the Wisconsin Badgers to the Big House in Week 6.
The Wolverines have dusted themselves off and are starting to find their identity on offense following their loss to Oklahoma. That has meant running the football more with QB Bryce Underwood, so you know he’s going to highlight my favorite player prop picks in this Big Ten battle.
Meanwhile, the Badgers are in a bad place. Their starting QB is still hurt and are coming off tough back-to-back losses to Alabama and Maryland. Can they find any offense?
Check out my Wisconsin vs. Michigan props and free college football picks to find out.
Wisconsin vs Michigan props for Week 6
Bryce Underwood anytime TD (+115)- Donaven McCulley o45.5 receiving yards (-114)
Lance Mason o30.5 receiving yards (-114)
Prop bet #1: Bryce Underwood anytime TD
Since the loss to Oklahoma, Michigan has made a concerted effort to start running the ball more with Bryce Underwood.
The true freshman QB has carried the ball 17 times in the last two games, carrying it nine times for 114 yards and two touchdowns against Central Michigan, and followed that up with eight carries for 61 yards and a score against Nebraska.
I don’t expect that to change this week against a struggling Wisconsin team.
That said, I don’t like the Over on his rushing yards prop here. The Badgers' one strength this season is their rushing defense. But once you get close to the goal line, they lighten up a bit. Wisconsin has allowed opponents to score in 100% of their red zone visits this season.
So, I prefer Underwood to take matters into his own hands once the Wolverines get close to finding paydirt and score an anytime touchdown for the third straight game.
Prop bet #2: Donaven McCulley Over 45.5 receiving yards
While I like Underwood to score in this game, I also like Michigan to take this opportunity to try and open things up for him in the passing game.
Wisconsin has really struggled to contain passing attacks in the last two games. Ty Simpson of Alabama went 24-for-29 for 382 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions, and they followed that up by letting Maryland’s Malik Washington throw for 265 yards with two scores and no picks.
Now, once again, I don’t love Underwood’s passing yards prop, but I think the biggest beneficiary will be wideout Donaven McCulley.
McCulley is a big-bodied receiver at 6-foot-5 and 215 lbs, and has shown some big-play ability. He also leads the Wolverines in targets by a large margin. He just hasn’t always converted those targets into catches. I think that changes vs. a Badgers secondary that ranks 62nd in defensive success rate on dropbacks and 90th in EPA per dropback.
I like McCulley to go Over his modest receiving yards total of 45.5.
Prop bet #3: Lance Mason Over 30.5 receiving yards
The fact that starting quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has been injured for most of this season has not helped the Badgers at all this season. So, Wisconsin has had to rely on backup Danny O’Neil.
But there’s a reason he’s the backup, throwing as many interceptions as touchdowns (five) with a yards per attempt sitting just below 7.0.
That said, O’Neil has found his security blanket in tight end Lance Mason. He has been targeted 19 times over the last three games, catching 14 of those passes for 177 yards and two scores.
I’m betting O’Neil keeps leaning on Mason in a matchup against what can be a very aggressive Michigan defense.
That aggressive play means opponents have been able to pass on the Wolverines a bit, ranking 61st in offensive success rate on drops and 81st in EPA per dropback. He’s gone Over that number in two of his last three games and had at least 30 in all three.
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