Have we finally reached the point in the history of the Wisconsin Badgers football program where there's nowhere to go but up?
Wisconsin went 4-8 in 2025 (its worst regular-season record since 1990) to finish well short of a 5.5-win total and extend an Under streak that now runs five consecutive seasons under Luke Fickell and his predecessor Paul Chryst.
The market has responded by resetting the 2026 total at 6.5, pricing the Over at nearly even money as books expect a bounce-back from a program that was a Big Ten contender as recently as 2017.
Here’s a look at the recent history of Wisconsin win totals, along with predictions on whether the Badgers will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 6.5:
Wisconsin 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 6.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
UNDER 6.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 6.5 | 🟡 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
I think the Badgers will be much improved. It starts with transfer quarterback Colton Joseph from Old Dominion (1,007 yards rushing last year). The schedule is also much more favorable than recent seasons. There’s no Indiana, Ohio State or Oregon. My numbers are close to market.
Rob Paul
It’s a shock to see Luke Fickell back at Wisconsin for another season, after he failed to get the Badgers bowl-eligible for a second straight year. And while bowl eligibility seems attainable this year with a schedule that’s the easiest in the conference based on SOS (.466), winning more than six games seems unlikely.
While adding dual-threat QB Colton Joseph (Old Dominion) and running back Abu Sama III (Iowa State) should help the run game, the Badgers’ offense has next to no proven pass catchers. And the offensive line lost its two best from last season.
Colby Marchio
Luke Fickell has the luxury of avoiding Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State, while also drawing one of the easiest schedules in the conference. That alone is a big reason why I lean toward the Over.
After winning just four games in 2025 while navigating one of the toughest schedules in the sport, the Badgers should have a much better opportunity to turn things around in 2026.
This feels like a bounce back year for Wisconsin.
Wisconsin win totals, odds and results (2006-25)
(Wisconsin historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.5 | +125 | -150 | 4 | Under |
| 2024 | 6.5 | -150 | +125 | 5 | Under |
| 2023 | 8.5 | -155 | +130 | 7 | Under |
| 2022 | 8.5 | -140 | +120 | 6 | Under |
| 2021 | 9.5 | -125 | +105 | 8 | Under |
| 2019 | 8 | -130 | +110 | 10 | Over |
| 2018 | 10 | +100 | -120 | 7 | Under |
| 2017 | 10.5 | +140 | -160 | 12 | Over |
| 2016 | 7 | +100 | -120 | 10 | Over |
| 2015 | 9.5 | -110 | -110 | 9 | Under |
| 2014 | 9.5 | -150 | +130 | 10 | Over |
| 2013 | 9 | -120 | -110 | 9 | Push |
| 2012 | 9 | -190 | +150 | 7 | Under |
| 2011 | 9 | -180 | +140 | 11 | Over |
| 2010 | 9 | -135 | +105 | 11 | Over |
| 2009 | 8 | -110 | -120 | 9 | Over |
| 2008 | 8.5 | NA | NA | 7 | Under |
| 2006 | 8 | +150 | -170 | 11 | Over |
🔑 Key takeaways
- An ever-so-slight Under lean overall: Wisconsin has gone Under its win total nine times in 18 graded seasons, against eight Overs and one push, a modest lean toward the Under across two decades of data.
- Five consecutive Unders from 2021-25: The Badgers have failed to clear their win total in five straight seasons, the longest active streak among Big Ten programs with sustained market attention. The totals over that span ranged from 9.5 all the way down to 5.5, meaning the market chased the program downward each year and still came up short.
- Pre-2021, the Over was the play: In the 12 graded seasons from 2006 through 2019, Wisconsin posted eight Overs and four Unders, consistently outperforming expectations during the Bret Bielema and Paul Chryst peak years. The inflection point in 2021 marks a genuine shift in how the Badgers have performed relative to market expectations.
How Wisconsin win totals are priced
It will be interesting to see how many bettors decide to pull the chute on Wisconsin win total Unders and lean toward a long-awaited turnaround.
Sportsbooks have stopped moving the total down, setting the 2026 target one win higher than last year's number. And the schedule might be one of the biggest reasons why: The Badgers will avoid four of the top five teams in last year's Big Ten standings, including the three programs that won 12+ games (Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State).
Granted, this schedule is no gimme, between a season opener vs. Notre Dame and a challenging back-to-back stretch against 9-win teams USC and Iowa. But it's less daunting than most, and also features a couple of presumed non-conference gimmes vs. Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan.
If you're considering a play on Wisconsin's Big Ten win total, that sits at 4.5 for 2026, with the Over at +120 and the Under at -146.
Wisconsin’s 2018 season produced the largest single-season Under miss in this dataset; set at 10 wins, the Badgers finished 7-6, falling three wins short of the total.
Wisconsin win total FAQs
Will Wisconsin make the CFP?
Wisconsin is a long shot to reach the 2026-27 playoff, priced at +3000.
What is Wisconsin's projected win total?
The Badgers’ win total sits at 6.5 for 2026, with the Over at -105 and the Under at -115.
Who is Wisconsin's starting QB?
Old Dominion transfer Colton Joseph is expected to be Wisconsin's QB1; he threw for 2,624 yards and 21 touchdowns last season.
What is the most notable Wisconsin win total trend?
Wisconsin has gone Under its win total in five consecutive seasons from 2021 through 2025, a stretch that saw oddsmakers lower the total from 9.5 all the way to 5.5.
What’s the best bet for Wisconsin this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the UNDER on Wisconsin's win total is preferred, though Colby Marchio stands on the Over side.
