Rutgers football fans get to watch some of the best teams in the Big Ten on a yearly basis. They just don't get to see their Scarlet Knights beat any of them.
Rutgers went 5-7 overall and 2-7 in Big Ten play in 2025, missing its win total by half a game in what was otherwise a quietly mediocre season for a program still searching for consistent footing in the conference. The Scarlet Knights' 2026 number remains unchanged from the same total they just missed; can they meet the challenge this time around?
Here's a look at the recent history of Rutgers win totals, along with predictions on whether the Scarlet Knights will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 4.5*:
Rutgers 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
OVER 4.5 | ⚪ |
| Rob Paul | |
UNDER 4.5 | ⚪ |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 5.5* | 🟡 |
| Richard O'Leary | The Knight Report (On3) | OVER 4.5 | 🟢 |
*Win total opened at 5.5.
*Pick made on original win total.
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Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Despite the return of only seven starters, I think Rutgers could be better this year. The problem is a schedule that could see them underdogs in as many as eight games. This win total was bet down from 5.5. I lean over 4.5 wins at current.
Rob Paul
With one of the best offenses of the Greg Schiano era, led by a QB who was selected in the NFL Draft (Athan Kaliakmanis), Rutgers won just five games.
Without Kaliakmanis this season, Rutgers is expected to start either AJ Surace (two career passes against Power 4 opponents) or transfer Dylan Lonergan; Boston College was 0-7 in P4 games in which he threw double-digit passes last season.
So even with two of the best playmakers in the Big Ten (Antwan Raymond, KJ Duff), Rutgers’ offense will likely take a major step back. The defense doesn’t have high hopes either, ranking No. 88 in returning production (46%) and projected to start at least five transfers from the Group of Six/FCS level.
Colby Marchio
I may just have a soft spot for the birthplace of college football. Why? I think I just really like saying "RUT-GERS."
However, the Scarlet Knights avoid a lot of the conference's top teams. They do draw Indiana, Michigan, and USC, which I have as losses, but outside of those games, I think they should be able to keep the rest of the schedule competitive.
Rutgers went out and improved its defense from a year ago, while the offense should still be solid with the quarterback battle continuing. Their offensive line should be a major strength with three returning starters.
At +125 to win six games, I think this is worth the risk.
📰 Rutgers media win total predictions
Richard O'Leary, The Knight Report
When you look at the schedule for Rutgers, you pretty much can lock up three wins through the non-conference, especially given HC Greg Schiano hasn't lost a non-con game since returning to Rutgers.
Add in the fact that the offense has one of the best running backs and one of the best receivers in the country, they should be kicking on all cylinders once again. Factor in the fact that the defense has been reshaped with an entirely new staff and a lot of new personnel from the portal and it all makes me very confident in the over this year.
The real question is how many more game can they win; we could see the Scarlet Knights bowling in 2026.
Rutgers win totals, odds and results (2008-25)
(Rutgers historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.5 | -145 | +120 | 5 | Under |
| 2024 | 6.5 | -105 | -115 | 7 | Over |
| 2023 | 4.5 | +100 | -120 | 6 | Over |
| 2022 | 4 | -115 | -105 | 4 | Push |
| 2021 | 5 | -110 | -110 | 5 | Push |
| 2019 | 3 | -120 | +100 | 2 | Under |
| 2010 | 7 | -180 | +150 | 4 | Under |
| 2009 | 9 | +115 | -145 | 8 | Under |
| 2008 | 7.5 | NA | NA | 7 | Under |
🔑 Key takeaways
- Under is the dominant result: Rutgers has gone Under its win total five times in nine graded seasons, with two Overs and two pushes.
- Over doesn't return much value: The trends point to Rutgers as a strong Under option, but the preseason odds say otherwise. Only twice since 2008 have the Scarlet Knights returned plus odds on the Over option, and that stretch continues in 2026 now that the number has dipped from 5.5 to 4.5 (with the Over at -156).
- Nailed it: Rutgers pushed its win total exactly in both 2021 and 2022, and you can't say those came as a surprise. Both the Over and Under were either pure coin flips or as close to 50-50 as you can get; the only other near-flip the Scarlet Knights have seen came in 2024, when they beat their win total by just 0.5.
How Rutgers win totals are priced
After not seeing a total over five in 14 years, Rutgers has now produced a Vegas total of 5.5 or higher in three straight seasons.
But unlike last year, where the Over 5.5 at -145 suggested promising results for the program, pessimism abounds in 2026 with the O5.5 at +142. In addition to facing the gauntlet of Indiana, USC, Michigan, and Penn State, potential toss-ups vs. Maryland, Northwestern and Wisconsin are all road games, which doesn't help.
That grueling Big Ten docket has dampened expectations for Rutgers' conference win prognosis, with the Vegas total set at 2.5. The Over is -130, while the Under is +110.
The Scarlet Knights haven't beaten a ranked opponent in nearly 17 years, having lost 43 straight since toppling then-No. 23 USF 31-0 on Nov. 12, 2009.
Rutgers win total FAQs
Will Rutgers make the CFP?
Rutgers is a long shot to reach the 2026-27 playoff, priced at +25000.
What is Rutgers' projected win total?
The Scarlet Knights' win total sits at 4.5 at some sportsbooks and 5.5 at others for 2026. The Over is set at -156 and the Under at +130 on 4.5 wins, and the Over at +142 and the Under at -170 on 5.5 wins.
Who is Rutgers' starting QB?
Boston College transfer Dylan Lonergan won a late battle for the Scarlet Knights' QB1 role, besting AJ Surace for the job.
What is the most notable Rutgers win total trend?
Rutgers has gone Under its win total in five of nine graded seasons. The program's only two Overs came in back-to-back seasons (2023 and 2024), and 2025's Under suggests the market may have overcorrected upward after that two-year run.
What's the best bet for Rutgers this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the OVER is a slightly stronger play, with Rob Paul the only dissenter.
