Putting up big win totals hasn't been a problem for the USC Trojans.
Doing it consistently? That's another matter altogether.
USC went 9-3 overall with a 7-2 mark in its second Big Ten season in 2025, clearing its win total and offering the first genuine optimism for a program that had endured some turbulent years in the betting markets. Now the Trojans face a number that reflects that bounce-back, but given recent history, it might be premature to suggest that USC is back.
Here's a look at the recent history of USC win totals, along with predictions on whether the Trojans will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 8.5:
USC 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 8.5 | 🟡 |
| Rob Paul | |
OVER 8.5 | 🟡 |
| Colby Marchio | |
OVER 8.5 | ⚪ |
| Ben Bolch | California Post | OVER 8.5 | 🟢 |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
This is head coach Lincoln Riley’s most complete team at USC especially at the line of scrimmage. However, the Trojans have to play the three best teams in the Big Ten (Ohio State, Indiana and Oregon). They’ve also struggled traveling east. Since 2012, they are 2-16 straight up in the Central and Eastern time zones.
Rob Paul
Lincoln Riley returns QB Jayden Maiava, who was No. 2 nationally in QBR (89.9) and top 10 among Power 4 QBs in big-time throw rate (6.2%), from last year’s team that won nine regular season games.
Maiava leads an offense that’s No. 22 in returning production (67%) and has one of the best running back tandems in the conference (Waymond Jordan, King Miller). The Trojans also added Terrell Anderson (NC State) to complement budding star Tanook Hines. And the offensive line is among the most experienced (over 75 starts between them).
The offense will be one of the best in the country; however, the key to 9+ wins will be new defensive coordinator Gary Patterson. The TCU legend takes over a unit with an underrated defensive line led by Kameryn Crawford and a talented secondary that landed one of the top corners in the portal (Jontez Williams).
Colby Marchio
I mainly lean over because the Trojans have just one truly difficult road game, which comes Nov. 14 at Indiana. Outside of that, they get Oregon and Ohio State at home. If they can steal two of those three games, that would be massive.
Yes, I understand that is a tall ask, but head coach Lincoln Riley is extremely confident in this team heading into the season. I am hoping he is right, because if USC is ever going to make a real run under Riley, when else is it going to happen?
📰 USC media win total predictions
Ben Bolch, California Post
Expect a midseason breakthrough to put the Lincoln Riley hype train back on track before some familiar late-season disappointment once again ends hopes of a College Football Playoff berth.
USC win totals, odds and results (2005-25)
(USC historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.5 | -185 | +150 | 9 | Over |
| 2024 | 7.5 | -130 | +110 | 6 | Under |
| 2023 | 10 | -110 | -110 | 7 | Under |
| 2022 | 9.5 | +100 | -120 | 11 | Over |
| 2021 | 8.5 | -105 | -115 | 4 | Under |
| 2019 | 7 | -150 | +130 | 8 | Over |
| 2018 | 8.5 | -110 | -110 | 5 | Under |
| 2017 | 10.5 | +130 | -150 | 10 | Under |
| 2016 | 7.5 | -125 | +105 | 9 | Over |
| 2015 | 9 | -140 | +120 | 8 | Under |
| 2014 | 8.5 | -185 | +165 | 8 | Under |
| 2013 | 9.5 | +105 | -135 | 9 | Under |
| 2012 | 10.5 | -140 | +110 | 7 | Under |
| 2011 | 7.5 | -135 | +105 | 10 | Over |
| 2010 | 9.5 | -150 | +120 | 8 | Under |
| 2009 | 10 | -130 | +100 | 8 | Under |
| 2008 | 11 | NA | NA | 11 | Push |
| 2006 | 9.5 | -180 | +160 | 10 | Over |
| 2005 | 11 | -130 | +100 | 12 | Over |
🔑 Key takeaways
- A pronounced Under lean across two decades: USC has gone Under its win total 11 times in 19 graded seasons, against seven Overs and one push, marking one of the stronger Under profiles of any program in this series.
- High totals have been particularly dangerous: In the 10 seasons where USC's total was set at 9.5 or higher, the Trojans went Under six times, Over three times, and pushed once, a clear lean toward Under when expectations are elevated. The 2026 total of 8.5 sits just below that threshold.
- The four largest misses are all Unders: USC's biggest deviations from the total – 2021 (-4.5 wins), 2018 (-3.5), 2012 (-3.5), and 2023 (-3) – have all come on the Under side, pointing to a program that has struggled to sustain high expectations over a full regular season.
How USC win totals are priced
Are the Trojans for real? Or primed for yet another letdown following a big regular season?
That's the puzzle bettors face with this team, which has two double-digit win seasons in the past nine years and saw massive win drops the following year on both occasions. Now fresh off an impressive 9-3 showing in Year 2 of the Big Ten move, oddsmakers are optimistic of a repeat – but you couldn't blame bettors for being cautious.
Working in USC's favor is a non-conference schedule that shouldn't present much of a challenge, followed by a Big Ten opener against lowly Rutgers. But after that ... hoo boy. Four of the Trojans' next six games come against teams with 9+ victories last season, including unbeaten Indiana, 13-win Oregon and 12-win Ohio State.
USC's conference win total is locked in at 5.5 going into the season, with the Over at +105 and the Under at -125.
USC is one of only two programs in this dataset ever set at 11 wins or higher – and the only one to clear it. The Trojans were set at 11 wins in 2005 and finished 12-0 in the regular season; the same 11-win total in 2008 resulted in a push.
USC win total FAQs
Will USC make the CFP?
USC is a legitimate playoff contender, priced at +240 to reach the 2026-27 College Football Playoff.
What is USC's projected win total?
The Trojans' win total sits at 8.5 for 2026, with the Over at +115 and the Under at -136.
Who is USC's starting QB?
Jayden Maiava will look to improve on a sensational 2025 as USC's starting QB. He threw for more than 3,700 yards with 24 TDs last season.
What is the most notable USC win total trend?
USC has gone Under its win total 11 times in 19 graded seasons – and when the total has been set at 9.5 or higher, the Under has hit six times in 10 seasons. The 2026 number of 8.5 sits just below that threshold, but the program's history of missing elevated expectations is worth noting.
What's the best bet for USC this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the OVER on USC's 2026 win total is the preferred option, though Brad Powers is leaning toward the Under.
