Western Michigan vs Central Michigan Odds, Picks and Predictions: Chippewas Win Big

The Western Michigan Broncos travel to meet the Central Michigan Chippewas on Wednesday night at Kelly/Shorts Stadium for a little MACtion.

Central Michigan picked up the 42-30 win last season in Kalamazoo, so Western Michigan will head north with revenge on its mind. The Broncos, already eliminated from bowl eligibility, would also like to deal the Chips a seventh loss on the season, so they have company on the couch in front of the TV during bowl season.

Can the Chippewas stay alive for a bowl bid, or will the Broncos be able to ride into Mount Pleasant and put out their fire? We’ll discuss in our college football betting picks and predictions for Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan.

Western Michigan vs Central Michigan best odds

Western Michigan vs Central Michigan picks and predictions

Things haven’t exactly gone according to plan in Kalamazoo this season. 

The Broncos have used a number of quarterbacks this season, struggling to replace the departed QB Kaleb Eleby. None of the replacements have held a candle to his production. QB Jack Salopek has been the best of the lot, completing 50.8% of his passes for 1,231 yards, seven touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, while also running for a score — and QB Treyson Bourguet has also shown some flashes.

Holdover WR Corey Crooms has been a steadying force on offense, going for 50 receptions, 725 yards, and five touchdowns — good for an average of 14.5 yards per reception — but he is the only player with multiple touchdown grabs this season, and Western Michigan will need secondary and tertiary receivers to step up heading into 2023.

The run game is a two-headed monster with RBs Sean Tyler and La’Darius Jefferson leading the charge. Tyler is the main workhorse with 719 yards and 4.4 yards per tote, while Jefferson has managed 235 yards and 4.2 yards per attempt. Each of the backs have pierced the end zone five times, and that’s really what Western Michigan does slightly better on offense than anything else.

Central Michigan started out a dismal 2-6 on the season, and payday trips to Oklahoma State and Penn State early on didn’t exactly help. While those games are great for the coffers, it really makes it imperative you get off to a quick start in conference play. That didn’t happen, as the Chips fell in three of the first four in the MAC, sans for a win over lowly Akron.

Instead of waving the white flag, however, the Chips have fired up, topping Northern Illinois 35-22 on the road on Nov. 2, and home against Buffalo on 31-27 as a 3-point favorite. The offense is playing better, the defense is playing better, and CMU is still alive for a bowl bid when it seems against all odds as October was winding down.

Statistically, Central Michigan is much better than Western Michigan in nearly every facet. The Chips average 159.0 rushing yards per game to rank No. 62 in the nation while racking up a respectable 26.8 ppg. Defensively, it’s a bad matchup for Western Michigan, because Central is hardest against the run on defense — allowing just 138.3 yards per game — good for No. 53 in the country.

CMU can be had on defense, however, as it has yielded 28.8 ppg, but that’s slightly pumped up after blowout losses to Penn State and Oklahoma State, and it has been much better lately against teams of equal talent. Central allowed just 191 passing yards against Buffalo last week, and outgained the Bulls 303 to 240 on the ground despite losing the time of possession game at a 38:27 to 21:33 clip.

While stats and common sense point to a Central Michigan win, it’s hard not to at least pay some mind to the recent trends. The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in the past five trips to Mount Pleasant, and the road team has cashed in nine of the past 10 meetings.

Still, Central Michigan is playing much better lately, and all Western Michigan has left to play for is the spoiler role. The Chips can still qualify for a bowl and will do so, winning here, and next week against Eastern Michigan.

My best bet: Central Michigan -11 (-110 at BetMGM)

Western Michigan vs Central Michigan spread analysis

Western Michigan has covered the past two games on the road, which is the good news. The bad news is that the offense stunk in those two games. It will need to be much better here. Western topped Miami (OH) 16-10 on Oct. 22, and it was edged 13-9 by Bowling Green in its most recent road outing on November 2. 

In that cover at BGSU, Western managed just 127 rushing yards and 191 passing yards, and it had the benefit of three fumble recoveries. Central won’t be nearly as sloppy as the Falcons were.

Overall, the Broncos are still just 2-3 ATS in the past five games overall, and 4-6 ATS in 10 games on the season. It also has failed to cover in both games when entering as an underdog of eight or more points.

Central has covered two in a row, and looks for its first three-game cover streak since closing out last season on a 5-0 ATS run — including a Sun Bowl win over Washington State. It started that five-game streak with a 42-30 win at Western Michigan as a 9-point underdog.

There is a little concern, as the Chips are just 1-3-1 ATS in five home games this season, but the offense has played with a lot of confidence lately, and Central will be motivated by a possible trip to the Bahamas Bowl or somewhere warm for the holidays.

Western Michigan vs Central Michigan Over/Under analysis

The Chips enter on a 3-0 Over run, picking up the pace offensively in the past two outings. The offense has posted 31 and 35 points in the past two contests, with the 35-point performance at Northern Illinois on Nov. 2 serving as the high-water mark for CMU during conference play. The defense has still allowed 21 or more points in those two wins, and six of the past seven games overall.

For the Broncos, the Under is on a 4-0 run thanks to their anemic offensive production of late. WMU was rather efficient putting up 21 points against NIU at home, but prior to that, the Broncos were averaging just 13 ppg in three outings. Western actually started with a pair of Over results in conference play, both September 10 and October 8, but that seems like a lifetime ago.

With CMU hitting Overs, and WMU hitting Unders lately, the best course of action for bettors is to either shy away from the total, or play the Under at a half unit or less. The money is to be made playing the line instead.

Western Michigan vs Central Michigan betting trend to know

Central Michigan is an impressive 15-1-1 ATS in the past 17 appearances on a Wednesday night, while Western Michigan has cashed at a 6-2 ATS clip in the past eight games on Wednesdays. Find more NCAA betting trends for Western Michigan vs. Central Michigan.

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