It may have been a week devoid of massive upsets, with none of the Top 14 teams in the College Football Playoff rankings losing, but there was still plenty of college football nonsense this week.
In fact, the nonsense was ripe all week, particularly from one source in the Southeast. The noise out of Mississippi will be only louder this week, so these early Week 14 thoughts need to start with the most comical rivalry in the country, the Egg Bowl.
CFB Week 13 overreactions to make
Do overreact to Lane Kiffin’s waffling as LSU and Florida try to woo him away from Mississippi. Kiffin even considering those offers is foolish and nearly unprecedented.
Mississippi is a win away from the College Football Playoff. FanDuel lists the Rebels at +2200 to win the National Championship, the ninth-shortest odds in the country.
A cynic might say Mississippi has no genuine chance at winning the title, that the implied chance of +2200 odds is just 4.3%, and that is even before factoring in the sportsbooks’ hold.
But do you know what is just as true? That is a 4.3% implied chance at winning the national title. The Rebels are effectively a five-game winning streak from winning the National Championship, a dream they have not been able to genuinely consider in 60 years.
This is what sports are supposed to be about, chances at titles, once-in-a-lifetime chances at titles.
No one can genuinely fault Kiffin for pondering a reported $90 million from LSU, comical as it may be that Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry insisted the state’s flagship university would not give its next head football coach a contract similar to Brian Kelly’s. If you offered me $90 million, I would willingly lop off a favorite body part, provided some heavy antibiotics came with the cash.
But there are also reports Mississippi has made a similar offer to Kiffin. Even if it is not $90 million, any new offer should alter the perception of the LSU offer. Kiffin would not be turning down $90 million. He would be turning down the difference between the offers.
That difference should be worth a title shot. This is what sports are supposed to be about, once-in-a-lifetime chances at titles.
Kiffin likes the attention. He adores the drama. An armchair psychologist might assume the chaos validates Kiffin’s early-career decisions, the ones that led him from being a 32-year-old NFL head coach to Tennessee to the tarmac outside the USC team plane.
But the attention, the drama and the chaos do not justify being the first coach in history to voluntarily walk away from a title chance. Go ahead, spend some time thinking of a coach who chose to leave his team while an active and genuine title chance existed.
The only name that qualifies is Brian Kelly leaving Notre Dame for LSU in 2021 before conference championship weekend.
Look how that ended.
Mississippi athletic director Keith Carter issued a statement on Friday, “An announcement on Coach Kiffin’s future is expected the Saturday following [the Egg Bowl at Mississippi State].”
It sure sounds like Kiffin might not want to make this decision while the Rebels have a genuine title chance. There is one sure way to remove those chances.
Douglas’s advice: Rivalry week demands more deference to intangibles. Kiffin’s selfishness is one such intangible. The Rebels must be distracted. Just as pertinently, Mississippi State has a worthwhile rushing attack, the exact area Mississippi’s defense most struggles. Expect the Bulldogs to shorten this game and continue to capitalize where it matters most, ranking No. 19 in the country entering the weekend in points per quality drive at 4.14, per CFB-graphs.com.
The Egg Bowl is a more unpredictable Thanksgiving tradition than anything any family stressors may concoct. This year, sprinkle on Mississippi State on the moneyline while grabbing a full unit of +8.5. A shortened game with strong finishes to drives should put all the pressure on Kiffin’s soon-to-be former team.
Do overreact to Georgia Tech’s ramblin’ wreck of a rush defense. It has fallen beyond redemption.
When Pittsburgh — who throws the ball at the second-highest relative rate in the country — runs for 247 yards on 34 carries, sacks adjusted, then you no longer have any claim of physicality.
Georgia Tech’s last four opponents — Syracuse, North Carolina State, Boston College and now Pittsburgh — rushed for a combined 847 yards on 6.42 yards per carry, adjusting for sacks. Entering the weekend, those rushing attacks ranked Nos. 13, 6, 17 and 10 in expected points added (EPA) per rush in the ACC.
Imagine thinking Pittsburgh would not run the ball on Georgia Tech.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 23, 2025
Georgia Tech has worn down this season, in a dramatic way.
There is an instinct to bet on the Yellow Jackets next weekend. Rivalry weekend demands someone throw a wrench in a rival’s dream season. Georgia Tech lasted seven overtimes at Georgia last year. This could be a chance to finish that job.
Not with this rush defense.
Douglas’s advice: Georgia prefers to throw the ball, but its rushing attack is plenty worthwhile. And that is enough to trust the Bulldogs past two touchdowns. If uncomfortable with a spread of -14.5 already, then wait until halftime on Friday. Georgia Tech may hang around for a half, particularly given Georgia’s repeated struggles out of the gates this season.
But both halftime adjustments and fatigue from taking it on the chin defending the run should work against Georgia Tech in the second half. Bet the Bulldogs live at the break.
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CFB Week 13 reactions to avoid
Don’t overreact to losses that kept Florida State, Kansas State, Kentucky, Washington State and Delaware from bowl eligibility. Those simply create value for us all in the final week of the regular season.
Four of those five now face teams that cannot reach bowl games. This is their final week, and focus strays. Kentucky heads to Louisville, aggressively fading into the ACC’s oblivion.
- Start with Kentucky. Louisville has gone 0-3 against the spread in its last three games, also losing all three outright. The Cardinals have fallen short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 17.7 points in those three games. Miller Moss is likely done for the season, possibly in some part because of his criticisms of Louisville’s locker room. If Mark Stoops wants to reach a bowl game, this is a great chance to also knock down a rival in doing so.
- Much like Louisville, Florida has checked out this season. As much as some claimed the Gators were persevering through the firing of Billy Napier, their pride showing through, it has to be acknowledged that the Gators are 2-7-1 ATS vs. FBS competition this year, including going 1-4-1 in their last six. They fell short of bookmakers’ expectations by 9.8 points per game in those six, even including both the single ATS win and the push. Florida State is far from good, but this is Mike Norvell’s best chance to hold onto his job with some control this offseason.
- Kansas State lost to Utah’s altitude and physicality late on Saturday. Manhattan does not have that altitude, and Colorado has none of that physicality. Reaching a bowl game should further Chris Klieman’s hold on his job as some Wildcats fans express frustrations. Assuredly, Kansas State knows the book on the Buffaloes: Blitz all day.
- Washington State went on the road against a motivated James Madison team and nearly pulled off an upset as a two-touchdown underdog. Lean into the Cougars, particularly this week as they seek revenge on Oregon State. The Beavers pulled off a surprising upset in the first of the two legs that are the entirety of the Pac-12 schedule. Revenge is best served when it comes with the reward of more football.
Halftime score of note: Wazzu 17, James Madison 10.
— Bryan Fischer (@BryanDFischer) November 22, 2025
- Delaware has only hope of a bowl game even if it beats UTEP this weekend. The Blue Hens are not eligible for a bowl game yet as they transition into the FBS level, but if not enough teams reach six wins, then Delaware will be on deck.
Douglas’s advice: Be bold. Bet each of those five on the moneyline. Only Kentucky should be an underdog. The other four should go 4-0, very sincerely. And then the Wildcats may spring an upset to further your delight.
Don’t overreact to the unusual kickoff time in Massachusetts on Tuesday. Consider it an appetizer to bowl season, even if that seems odd given UMass’s involvement.
Why is Bowling Green playing at UMass at 4:30 ET on the Tuesday before Thanksgiving? That is an excellent question.
Anybody know why Bowling Green at UMass is at 4:30 ET on Tuesday?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 23, 2025
On ESPNU
I am all for it, a bowl season appetizer (that'll taste like 0-11 UMass football ...).
Just odd.
Does it matter?
The Minutemen have the worst offense in the country by EPA metrics. As well as the worst defense. Among common “advanced” stats, UMass ranks outside the bottom 10 in exactly one: EPA per rush against, where the Minutemen rank 11th from the bottom.
Douglas’s advice: Bowling Green is not knocking on the door of any major breakthrough. The Falcons’ offense has struggled mightily to close the season. But against UMass? Bet Bowling Green blindly. Let it pay for your tab on Tuesday night; only amateurs go out the night before Thanksgiving.
Rapid fire: More Week 14 bets to target
- Louisiana is also playing for its bowl eligibility against an opponent wrapping up its season. But the Ragin’ Cajuns won last week, so they did not fit the above section. They should still find their sixth win against UL-Monroe. Take Louisiana up to -12.5.
- That same paragraph all applies to Texas State hosting South Alabama, including the -12.5.
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The only rushing defense that might make Georgia Tech’s ramblin’ wreck look good would be Baylor’s. Arizona ran for 174 yards on 34 attempts, adjusting for sacks, a 5.1 yards per rush average. Oh, and four touchdowns. The Wildcats were the fourth opponent in five games to average more than five yards per rush against the Bears. Only two winning Power Four teams run the ball more often than Houston does: Utah and Iowa. This is who the Cougars are. And they should grind through the Bears. Bet Houston up to -6.5. And if that game is within a field goal at halftime, go bet the Cougars again.
Alabama next week ... https://t.co/eQBZldbjlF
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 22, 2025
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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