As much as the 2025 college football season will be remembered by the big names deposited onto the unemployment line, it should not be forgotten those coaches lost their jobs because national title contenders fell flat.
There are other national title contenders that have fallen flat, too. Neither Dabo Swinney nor Mario Cristobal is in jeopardy of losing his job, but the vacuum in the ACC created by Clemson’s and Miami’s failures this season is one to study as we gain speed going into Week 11.
CFB Week 10 overreactions to avoid
Don’t overreact to Miami’s loss at SMU this weekend. The Hurricanes were already on the outside of the ACC title picture. Instead, do overreact to Georgia Tech’s loss to North Carolina State. The Yellow Jackets may now need some help.
With Virginia 5-0 in ACC play and five teams with one loss, the conference tiebreaker scenarios remain rather murky. The most likely scenario is Virginia, Georgia Tech, Louisville, and Duke all finish 7-1.
The tiebreaker would then be based on combined winning percentage of all conference opponents, and this is where Louisville may emerge. The Cardinals already entered Week 10 with the best SP+ rating among these four. They also face only one of the ACC’s four worst teams (Boston College, Syracuse, Florida State and North Carolina). Louisville should emerge from that tiebreaker.
Thus, there is value in Louisville at +320 to win the ACC at FanDuel, trailing only Georgia Tech’s +290 on the odds board. The Yellow Jackets sit so only because they have just two remaining conference games, at Boston College and against Pittsburgh.
That is where Georgia Tech’s true misery actually comes from, though. The Yellow Jackets still need to face Georgia.
Losing to NC State this weekend assures Georgia Tech would miss the Playoff at 10-2. If the Jackets fall to the Bulldogs, their College Football Playoff hopes will fall with them barring help in the ACC.
Douglas’s advice: Bet Louisville to win the ACC. As much as it pains to put that faith in Jeff Brohm, the Cardinals are best positioned to reach the conference championship.
Don’t overreact to Tulane’s loss to UTSA on Thursday. That was embarrassing, but the Green Wave’s AAC fate was always going to be most determined this coming week. That did not change.
Six teams in the American have one conference loss, now led by Navy at 5-1, with Memphis and North Texas both at 4-1.
The Tigers host the Green Wave on Friday, and a Tulane win would immediately put the Green Wave back into the American title race. In that regard, Tulane never left the American title race.
But with Memphis opening as more than a touchdown favorite, grant the Tigers the win for this exercise. At that point, the most likely scenario is Memphis, North Texas and South Florida all finish 7-1.
Don't love that this is our only Thanksgiving game, but I do love that Navy vs Memphis could carry Playoff implications, both currently with one American loss to date.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 2, 2025
(Navy vs USF before then; Memphis vs Tulane & at East Carolina)
(via @statsowar; Week 10 stats not included) pic.twitter.com/0GsllLNTti
The American multi-team tiebreakers get wonky, though, based first on the College Football Playoff selection committee rankings and then on a handful of advanced metrics. In either regard, logic insists Memphis and South Florida would reach the conference championship game.
Douglas’s advice: Prepare to back North Texas at some absurdly high numbers. The Mean Green assuredly know their conference title hopes, and some Playoff hopes, hinge on advanced analytics. North Texas should run up the score on overmatched opponents, beginning at UAB in two weeks.
CFB Week 10 reactions to make
Do overreact to Boise State’s no-show at home against Fresno State. That 30-7 failure shifted the Mountain West race.
Boise State remains a game ahead of Fresno State in the Mountain West standings, but the Broncos head to San Diego State in two weeks, where the Aztecs are likely to be favored. A second Boise State loss in conference competition would send Fresno State to the title game, almost certainly against San Diego State.
Yes, Sean Lewis should be nearing a conference championship in his second year in San Diego, just one season removed from going 3-9.
A 12-1 Mountain West champion San Diego State, with its most impressive win coming against Cal, still would presumably miss the College Football Playoff, but Lewis should still be praised.
Only one real hurdle remains: A trip to the island. If the Aztecs beat Hawai’i late this coming Saturday, they will be in a position where winning just one of their three remaining games — vs. Boise State, vs San Jose State and at already-bowl-eligible New Mexico — would propel them to the Mountain West title game.
San Diego St sits atop the Mountain West at 4-0.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 2, 2025
Remaining: at Hawaii, vs Boise St, vs San Jose St, at New Mexico.
Next week's Hawai'i Test is going to stress all our convictions in believing in the 'Bows at home.
(via @statsowar; Week 10 stats not included) pic.twitter.com/nHWd82C9Jl
Douglas’s advice: As much as it goes against the ethos of many college football bettors, fade Hawai’i’s offense next weekend. The most unexpected part of what Sean Lewis is doing right now is San Diego State’s defense, which entered this past weekend No. 19 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per dropback against, per CFB-graphs.com.
Do overreact to Colorado’s implosion. It would be improper to throw shade at Deion Sanders on what should be his exit from coaching, given the Buffaloes head coach is fighting a pile of medical worries. But Sanders does need to leave Boulder. This is getting ugly.
Colorado has lost its last two games by the combined score of 105-24. Remove the fourth quarters and those routs become 98-14.
Getting blown out by Utah was one thing. Being left in the dust by Arizona was another.
Arizona is leading Colorado 38-7… at halftime. Wildcats have 271 yards of offense in two quarters. Deion Sanders and the Buffs are on the way to dropping a fourth game in the last five.
— Ross Dellenger (@RossDellenger) November 2, 2025
Colorado’s quarterbacks combined to go 20-of-35 for 170 yards, 4.9 yards per attempt, while throwing three interceptions on Saturday night against Arizona. Everyone knows, blitz Colorado and good things will come.
Douglas’s advice: As bad as West Virginia is, and as much as it may be a letdown moment for the Mountaineers coming off an upset of Houston, bet West Virginia up to -6.5 as early as you can. The Mountaineers may be slowly building to something, while the Buffaloes just want to leave Deion’s herd.
Do overreact to Hugh Freeze and Auburn losing to Kentucky. No one in the SEC should lose to Kentucky this season. Logic expects Freeze to be fired on Sunday.
a “Fire Hugh” chant has broken out in the Auburn student section
— Justin Ferguson (@JFergusonAU) November 2, 2025
Regardless of Freeze’s immediate plight, Auburn’s offense is too far gone to put any faith in. The worst teams in the country would score more than three points against Kentucky.
Heading to Vanderbilt next weekend will not be the salve for Freeze or for a roster possibly soon to be lacking its leader.
Douglas’s advice: Take Vanderbilt up to -10.5 as soon as you can. The Commodores will find their way to two scores, and that should be all that is needed.
Rapid fire: More Week 11 bets to target
- Bet Ohio State up to -30.5 at Purdue. The Buckeyes refuse to think about not covering a spread, now 7-0-1 this season.
- Bet Alabama up to -13.5 against LSU. The Tide are 5-1-1 against the spread since that season-opening fluke in Tallahassee, and LSU’s roster has undoubtedly been looking around at options this week.
- Bet Texas Tech up to -13.5 against BYU. The Red Raiders are 7-2 against the spread this season, and head coach Joey Maguire will certainly make it clear to his players that a win against the Cougars, 5-0 in Big 12 play, would all but assure the Red Raiders an appearance in the conference championship game and thus a shot at a Playoff bid.
- Bet Eastern Michigan outright against Bowling Green. Even with Drew Pyne back in the lineup, the Falcons scored just three points, hampered a bit by Pyne going 7-of-16 for 52 yards before Hunter Najm took over. Eastern Michigan should put Bowling Green’s offense back in a box, and that creates value in the home underdog.
- Speaking of underdogs, grab the moneyline on Stanford’s trip to North Carolina. Frank Reich would like nothing more than to embarrass Bill Belichick, and this is a letdown moment for the Tar Heels after winning last week.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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