The tide has been turning recently in this ACC rivalry, but things could change again when the Wake Forest Demon Deacons travel to Tallahassee to face the Florida State Seminoles on Saturday afternoon.
Each team has an experienced leader at the quarterback position with lots of wins under their belts. Wake Forest just had a tough home loss in overtime to Clemson, while Florida State is undefeated. Can Wake Forest win at Florida State for the first time since 2008?
Find out in our free college football betting picks and predictions for Wake Forest vs. Florida State on Saturday, October 1.
Wake Forest vs Florida State best odds
Wake Forest vs Florida State picks and predictions
Florida State head coach Mike Norvell is in his third season in Tallahassee, and it looks like he may finally have his team set up the way he wants it. He went 38-16 in his four years at Memphis and went to the Cotton Bowl in his final season. After two mediocre years with the Seminoles, he has this team sitting at 4-0.
Florida State has a solid balance of offense and defense. Third-year starting quarterback Jordan Travis has the Seminoles ranked 29th in the nation in passing offense, while the balanced backfield attack has them ranked 50th in rushing yards per game.
Meanwhile, a mix of veterans and transfers on the defensive side has them ranked 33rd in points allowed and 46th in yards allowed per game. Two key transfers on the defensive side are Jared Verse, who transferred in from Albany and has three sacks, and Tatum Bethune, who is from UCF and is the leading tackler.
Verse is listed as questionable for this game, but there is some optimism around his return. If he is a go, this Florida State defense that records 3.0 sacks per game will have a nice mismatch against a Wake Forest offensive line that allows an average of 2.7 per contest.
While the Wake Forest offense is ranked 17th in the country in passing yards per game and 14th in points scored per game behind fifth-year quarterback Sam Hartman, they will have a tough time against this Seminoles' defense. Florida State allowed some yards and points against dual-threat quarterbacks with LSU and Louisville, but they shut down passing quarterbacks at Duquesne and Boston College.
The Wake Forest defense has struggled mightily in the secondary after losing many of their starters from last year. They allowed an inconsistent D.J. Uiagelelei to throw for 371 yards and five touchdowns last week. Travis should have no problem picking them apart again this week with balanced options at receiver.
If Florida State is at its expected full strength, they are going to be able to take advantage of some mismatches on both sides of the ball. They may not be able to completely shut down the Wake Forest offense, but they will contain them enough to allow their offense to score enough to cover the spread.
My best bet: Florida State -6.5 (-118 at FanDuel)
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Wake Forest vs Florida State spread analysis
If you need even more reasons outside of those mismatches to back Florida State, then you can look at some recent trends. Wake Forest is 1-4 against the spread in their last five games following a win against the spread.
Meanwhile, Florida State has covered four consecutive ACC games and five consecutive games following a straight up victory. The Seminoles have covered four of the last five meetings with Wake Forest at home. Both teams are 3-1 against the spread thus far this season.
This may not be a typical home crowd in Tallahassee with Hurricane Ian hitting South Florida this week, but fortunately, Tallahassee was slightly out of the path.
Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson was quoted saying, "I don't know if it is going to be packed. Who knows? There could be fewer people here than Vanderbilt. We are preparing for that. I would be very surprised."
However, since there was no postponement or movement of the game time or venue, there may still be a strong crowd there. The Seminoles should still get their true home-field advantage, and they will take advantage of it.
Wake Forest vs Florida State Over/Under analysis
Both teams’ strengths and weaknesses seem to match up outside of the mentioned mismatches in Florida State’s favor. This makes for a tough decision on the total.
This is especially the case, given that Florida State has won in both a shootout and a grind-it-out style against quality opponents. Special teams could play a big role as Florida State brought in running back Trey Benson from Oregon as its new return man. He already has returned one kick for a touchdown this season.
However, FSU's kicking game is not great, as the Seminoles have already three of their seven field goal attempts.
This makes it vital for Florida State to convert drives into touchdowns for Over bettors. I also believe that the Florida State defense will get after Hartman and prevent him from lighting up the scoreboard. This total is a large number, and the Under is 8-2 in the last 10 games that Florida State has played against a team with a winning record.
I have it as a slight lean.
Wake Forest vs Florida State betting trend to know
The Seminoles are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games following a SU win. Find more NCAA betting trends for Wake Forest vs. Florida State.
Wake Forest vs Florida State game info
|Location:||Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL|
|Date:||Saturday, October 1, 2022|
|Kickoff:||3:30 p.m. ET|
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