Virginia vs Georgia Tech Odds, Picks and Predictions: ACC Bottom-Feeders Start Slow

Virginia meets Georgia Tech in an ACC matchup that only a sports bettor could love. However, it’s getting the primetime treatment on ESPN this Thursday night, so I’ll give it the full breakdown and give you my best bet.

The 2022 season has been a disaster for the Cavaliers, as quarterback Brennan Armstrong has taken a step back this season while the defense is getting trampled over by opposing running backs.

While the Yellow Jackets are only one win better than UVA at 3-3, consecutive victories over Pittsburgh and Duke have this team feeling good about itself heading into this matchup.

I break this, um, interesting ACC matchup and give you my best bet in our college football picks and predictions for Virginia vs. Georgia Tech.

Virginia vs Georgia Tech best odds

Virginia vs Georgia Tech picks and predictions

Tony Elliot’s first year at Virginia definitely has not gone as planned. The team is just 2-4, has lost three in a row, and QB Brennan Armstrong and the offense have taken a huge step backward.

This is a Cavaliers team that ranked ninth in the country a season ago when it came to yards per play when facing FBS opponents. So far this year, they rank 104th, and a lot of that blame falls on Armstrong.

A year after he threw for a ridiculous 4,449 yards while completing 65.2% of his passes at 8.9 yards per attempt with 31 touchdowns compared to just 10 interceptions, Armstrong is now completing just 55% at 6.5 yards per attempt and has thrown more picks (seven) than touchdowns (five).

Georgia Tech, on the other hand, has seemingly turned things around since firing head coach Geoff Collins following a loss to UCF at the end of September. The Yellow Jackets have responded by upsetting solid teams in Pittsburgh and Duke in back-to-back weeks.

Unfortunately, starting quarterback Jeff Sims is being called “day-to-day” after suffering an injury during the win vs. Duke. If Sims is unable to go, that isn’t great for a Georgia Tech offense that is already struggling to score, averaging just 17.3 points per game. 

And no matter who is under center for the Yellow Jackets, one of the few things the Cavs have done well this season is defend the pass, ranking 43rd in passing yards allowed per game.

So, with the QB play in this game likely leaving viewers wanting more, expect both teams to try and establish the run early. The thing is both teams have done — at the very least — an OK job at stopping the run. UVA gives up 3.9 yards per carry vs. FBS opponents while Tech comes in at 4.4. This could get ugly.

There are 131 teams in the FBS. Virginia ranks 127th in first-half scoring, putting up an average of six points in the opening half. Georgia Tech is worse, ranking 130th at 5.2 points per first half. 

You guessed it... I'm going Under the 23.5-point first-half total.

My best bet: First-half Under 23.5 (-110 at bet365)

Virginia vs Georgia Tech spread analysis

Georgia Tech has looked great the last two weeks under interim head coach Todd Stansbury. The win over Pitt as 21.5-point underdogs was shocking and while the win over Duke was less so, it's still impressive getting 3.5 points. That said, this line looks like an over-adjustment. 

Now, the Yellow Jackets are laying 3.5 points at home, and will potentially be without their starting quarterback... that’s a big deal. Sims had put together arguably the best two-game stretch of the season, throwing for 329 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks, while adding another 176 yards and a score on the ground. 

And even if Sims does play, this line is still probably a bit of an overreaction. The Jackets scored just one touchdown prior to the final minute of the game against Pitt and needed overtime to take out Duke, and still averaged just 24.5 points per game.

Not that you can trust this Virginia team either. Their only wins have come against Richmond and Old Dominion. I would probably stay away from the side here and just cheer for our anti-shootout in the first half.

Virginia vs Georgia Tech Over/Under analysis

As you can probably tell by now, I’m not too keen on a whole lot of points being scored in this one. Georgia Tech averages 17.3 points per game, and Virginia averages 14.3 when facing Power 5 opponents... not great. So, I’d lean toward the full-game Under as well.

My only trepidation when it comes to that bet is that after Virginia gets frustrated by its inability to consistently move the ball, starts pushing the ball down the field more later in the game. That’s not a good thing when you consider the Cavs rank 128th in giveaways when facing FBS opponents while the Jackets rank 46th in takeaways. 

Some short fields could sink the full-game number.

Virginia vs Georgia Tech betting trend to know

The Under is 5-1-1 in Virginia's last seven games overall, and 7-1 in Georgia Tech's last eight. Find more NCAA betting trends for Virginia vs. Georgia Tech.

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