A cursory look would argue that a game featuring the UTEP Miners and the Sam Houston Bearkats should be described as a matchup between the two worst teams in Conference USA.
But that would be disingenuous. The Bearkats are that much worse than the Miners.
There are not two teams known as the worst teams in Conference USA. There is only the worst team in Conference USA.
My UTEP vs. Sam Houston predictions trust the 2025 axiom of always fading Phil Longo and the Bearkats’ passing defense.
Find out more in my college football picks for Wednesday, October 15.
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UTEP vs Sam Houston prediction
UTEP vs Sam Houston best bet: UTEP -2.5 (-115)
Death, taxes, and throwing the ball against Sam Houston.
The Bearkats have been gashed by passing attacks five times in six games this season, slowing down only Jacksonville State’s aerial approach, hardly difficult against one of the 10 worst passing offenses in the country, in terms of expected points added (EPA) per dropback.
There is a reason the Gamecocks throw the ball 12.1% less often than an average team would in a given game state, per CFB-graphs.com.
And yet, Jacksonville State completed 13 of 17 passes for 129 yards, season highs in both completion percentage (76.5%) and yards per pass attempt (7.6).
UTEP is far from a quality passing team, but the Miners are more comfortable throwing the ball than the Gamecocks are, so at some point, success will come for Malachi Nelson.
Nelson threw for seven touchdowns and 9.47 yards per attempt against UT-Martin and Louisiana-Monroe. The three scores and 404 yards against the Warhawks stand out, in particular, given UL-Monroe ranks No. 116 in defensive passing EPA, a full 20 spots ahead of Sam Houston State.
Yes, the Bearkats have the worst passing defense in the country, No. 136 out of 136 FBS teams.
Any amount of success for Nelson and the Miners will be enough for a win as a short favorite; the only unit in this game that warrants the backhanded compliment of “somewhat respectable” is UTEP’s defense.
That combination will be enough on Wednesday.
UTEP vs Sam Houston same-game parlay
Taking the Under in this matchup despite betting on UTEP to gash Sam Houston’s passing defense is a bet that those gashes will be only so many.
By no means is Miners' quarterback Malachi Nelson having a strong season. He simply has enough talent to find the holes in the Bearkats’ defense. Then again, so might you.
Despite being favored or one-score underdogs in three of six games this season, Sam Houston has yet to lead at halftime. Really, just fade the Bearkats anyway you can ponder.
UTEP vs Sam Houston SGP
- UTEP -2.5
- Under 47.5
- UTEP first-half moneyline
UTEP vs Sam Houston odds
- Spread: UTEP -2.5 (-110) | Sam Houston +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: UTEP -138 | Sam Houston +118
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 (-110) | Under 47.5 (-110)
UTEP vs Sam Houston trend to know
Five of Sam Houston’s six opponents have cleared their team totals, those six foes doing so by an average of 6.25 points per game even when including that one exception. Find more college football betting trends for UTEP vs Sam Houston.
How to watch UTEP vs Sam Houston
| Location | Shell Energy Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date | Wednesday, October 15, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBSSN |
UTEP vs Sam Houston latest injuries
UTEP vs Sam Houston weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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