While we only hit one upset play last week, it was a big one, as UCLA’s win at Michigan State carried us to a profit in Week 7.
Both Washington and SMU are getting more than five points on the road, but I break down why I’m backing them to win in my college football picks for Week 8.
CFB Week 8 upset picks
Washington moneyline
UConn moneyline
SMU moneylineWashingon moneyline
What do Oklahoma, Nebraska, and USC have in common? Well, besides having a shade of red as their primary color.
They all had field days against Michigan's pass defense. Jayden Maiava completed a season-high 78.1% of his throws last week, picking up 265 yards and two touchdowns in USC’s 31-13 victory.
While the Huskers didn’t get the victory, Dylan Raiola did his best. He completed 30 of 41 passes for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Meanwhile, John Mateer led the Huskers to victory behind 270 yards and a touchdown while completing 21 of 34 attempts.
Washington quarterback Demond Williams Jr. finished with 402 passing yards on just 21 completions against Rutgers last week, and now he'll face a Michigan secondary ranked 97th in success rate versus the pass.
The Huskies can run the ball as well, ranking inside the Top 20 in rushing success and sixth in EPA/rush. USC picked up more than 200 yards on the ground last week, averaging over six yards a pop.
Although the Huskies aren’t the greatest on defense, stopping the run hasn’t been their problem. And while Bryce Underwood has shown some improvement, he’s not the one to hurt this Washington defense.
Just like the Trojans, the Huskies will punish Michigan’s defense in both facets. Williams will post big numbers and lead the road underdogs to victory.
UConn moneyline
I’ve been struggling all week to figure out how Boston College is favored in this game, and I was worried the line would flip before I got to write this column.
Thankfully, UConn is still the underdog, and I’m happy to grab the Huskies at plus-odds to win — even if it’s barely above even money.
The Eagles have just one win this season, an opening-week victory over Fordham. They’ve yet to get a win over an FBS school, and the closest they came was the following week. They lost at Michigan State — the only victory all season for Sparty— in double overtime by two points.
Last week, Boston College was defeated 41-10 at home by Clemson, and it has now lost each of its last two games by 31 points. Now the Eagles face a UConn offense that is extremely well-balanced and clicking.
UConn has had two weeks to prepare for this game after a 51-10 win over FIU. Joe Fagnano leads a passing attack that ranks 13th in EPA/pass, and an offense that is Top 20 in EPA/play when adjusted for schedule and situation.
BC’s offense is utterly bad when forced to throw the ball, and the run game isn’t great. UConn will load the box and force Dylan Lonergan to beat them.
Lonergan won’t be able to do so enough to counter the Huskies and their balanced attack, and UConn will give BC its sixth loss of the season.
SMU moneyline
Reports on Thursday have indicated that Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik’s status for Saturday’s game against SMU is in serious doubt. However, that’s only one reason why I am all over SMU to pull the upset in Death Valley.
Somehow, people forgot just how bad this Clemson team is. The Tigers are suddenly right because they beat two of the worst Power 4 teams around? Yeah, right.
Sorry, but I don’t put much faith in beating a North Carolina team that is flirting with “worst ACC team ever” status, or the Boston College team we discussed earlier. The two ACC teams with a pulse both beat the Tigers and held them to 21 points.
The Tigers are still allowing an early-down EPA mark that ranks 88th defensively, while operating an offense that sits 101st in EPA/rush, 88th in quality drive rate, and 96th in early down EPA.
If Klubnik plays, his mobility will be severely limited. If he doesn’t, backup Christopher Vizzina has thrown zero meaningful passes in his two years at Clemson.
Vizzina has also thrown zero touchdowns in 48 career pass attempts, while averaging less than five yards an attempt. SMU’s defense isn’t elite, but it ranks 47th in EPA/DB and 38th in third-down success against.
SMU is Top 30 in passing success rate, and Kevin Jennings has put together two strong performances in a row. That includes 285 yards and four touchdowns against the same Syracuse defense that beat Clemson.
I’ll take the proven quarterback and steady offense over… whatever Clemson decides to roll out under center on Saturday.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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