Steve Sarkisian’s tenure in Austin isn’t off to a fantastic start. With a 13-11 record through two regular seasons, his Texas Longhorns (8-4) will look to finish the season with a confidence-boosting bowl win.
Their opponent will be the Washington Huskies, who rattled off 10 wins in their first year under head coach Kalen DeBoer.
Bowl game odds suggest these two teams will put on an offensive show, but just how many points can they score?
Check out my free college football picks and predictions for the Alamo Bowl between the Texas Longhorns and Washington Huskies on December 29 to find out.
Texas vs Washington best odds
Texas vs Washington picks and predictions
The unfortunate reality of bowl season in 2022 is that opt-outs, transfer, and motivation dominate the headlines. Rather than waste time bemoaning the reality of our situation, let’s dive into those factors first.
Texas has been hit hard by opt-outs. The Longhorns will be without star running back Bijan Robinson, backup RB Roschon Johnson, second-leading tackler Demarvion Overshown, and several depth pieces.
Sarkisian’s first two seasons in Austin have not gone according to plan, and he’ll certainly be motivated to end this season with a victory. However, there’s at least a question mark on how fired up the rest of the team will be to play in this game, considering the number of big names not appearing in this contest.
Washington, on the other hand, will be close to full strength — only four Huskies have entered their names into the transfer portal at the time of this writing, and none saw significant playing time in 2022. Quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is fired up to be playing in his first bowl game, and the team seems motivated, considering the lack of opt-outs and transfer portal departures.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers struggled mightily in his first year as the Longhorns' starter. While that’s to be expected for such a young QB, no one expected just 7.3 yards per attempt and a 56.6% completion percentage with a roster loaded at the skill positions.
The Alamo Bowl will be a test for Ewers, as the team is without its top two running backs and may rely on its passing game more than usual. With ballyhooed recruit Arch Manning arriving this offseason, one can consider this game to be a part of Ewers’ tryout for the starting job next season.
Ewers couldn’t expect a much better matchup if he hopes to strut his stuff. Washington’s defense is dreadful, ranking 101st in EPA per play and 97th in Success Rate.
A program prided for its excellent job churning out NFL talent in the secondary, the Huskies haven’t retooled as usual in 2022. This season they rank just 110th in EPA per pass and 109th in Passing Explosiveness.
While the big plays have been hard to come by for the Longhorns due to Ewers’ accuracy issues, Xavier Worthy (1,657 yards and 21 touchdowns in his first 22 career games) is one of the most explosive players in the country, and the Longhorns still have weapons to make this defense pay.
Washington’s been a machine on offense, ranking second in total yards per game (521.7) and fourth in points per game (40.8). Both teams should be able to find the end zone repeatedly, and my best bet will be on the Over.
My best bet: Over 67 (-110 at DraftKings)
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Texas vs Washington spread analysis
Texas opened as high as -6, but the line has moved down to -4 at most books. -3.5 is also still available, and it's possible the line drops to -3 in wake of all the opt-outs and transfer portal news.
The Longhorns were a profitable 8-4 against the spread this season, and they've been dominant against the Pac-12 recently — going 4-0 ATS in their last four conference matchups.
Non-conference games, in general, have also been a money-making machine, as the Longhorns are 18-6 ATS in their last 24. Texas is also 6-2 ATS in its last eight neutral site games and 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games.
The Huskies were 7-5 ATS this season, although the trends are split in this matchup. On one hand, they went 4-0 ATS in non-conference games this year, but they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against the Big 12.
I ultimately still lean toward the underdog in this spot. Washington's offense has been too dominant this season to count them out of any deficit it finds itself in, so getting the Huskies at +4 is too good to pass up.
Kalen DeBoer has had a tremendously successful first season for UW, and the Huskies rattled off six straight victories to end the season. With few opt-outs or transfers, this team is motivated to end the season on a high note.
Texas vs Washington Over/Under analysis
Expect there to be many touchdowns in the Alamo Bowl. How good has this Washington offense been in 2022? The Huskies check in at fourth in both EPA per play and Success Rate.
They don’t run the ball often, but they do so well when opting to keep the ball on the ground, ranking ninth in EPA per rush and 11th in Rushing Success Rate while averaging 4.7 yards per attempt. The passing attack is the star of the show, averaging 376.7 yards per game while coming in at sixth in EPA per pass and fourth in Passing Success Rate.
The Huskies have two 1,000-yard receivers in Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan, who combined for 15 receiving touchdowns. Texas has been solid on defense but is not spectacular, ranking 33rd in EPA per play and 22nd in Success Rate. A concern is their secondary, which is troubling in this matchup.
The Longhorns rank 50th in EPA per pass, 51st in Passing Success Rate, and 79th in Passing Explosiveness. The Pac-12 had some woeful defenses this season, and Washington is certainly among those.
While the loss of Bijan Robinson certainly hurts, this team still has talent at the position in hyped recruits Jonathon Brooks (7.5 yards per rush), Keilan Robinson (7.7 yards per touch), and Jaydon Blue.
The Huskies are bad everywhere on defense, ranking 100th in Rushing Success Rate and 83rd in Passing Success Rate. Texas should dominate the trenches in this spot and contribute to the Over.
I noted in my preseason Pac-12 Conference Preview that Washington would be a team to target on Overs this season. That mark currently sits at 8-3-1, and I’ll be betting on one more high-scoring shootout to end the season.
In-play microbetting trends for Texas vs Washington
The best betting sites for microbetting college football (with their odds powered by Simplebet):
Here are the next drive results when each team started at the 25-yard line (for all drives available to bet) for both the two-way betting market and the four-way betting market:
Texas
Offensive score Yes: 17/35 (48.6%)
Offensive score No: 18/35 (51.4%)
Punts: 15/35 (42.9%)
TDs: 10/35 (28.6%)
FG attempts: 7/35 (20%)
TOs: 3/35 (8.6%)
Texas had one drive that started at the 25 that did not have betting markets.
Washington
Offensive score Yes: 22/31 (70.9%)
Offensive score No: 9/31 (29%)
Punts: 4/31 (12.9%)
TDs: 16/31 (51.6%)
FG attempts: 7/31 (22.6%)
TOs: 4/31 (12.9%)
Texas vs Washington betting trend to know
The Over is 9-3-1 ATS in the Huskies’ last 13 games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Texas vs. Washington.
Texas vs Washington game info
| Location: | Alamodome, San Antonio, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, December 29, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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