Tennessee vs LSU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Vols Give Tigers the Hook

LSU's defense looks great on paper, but is it enough to hold Tennessee down? The Vols' offense will be tough to topple, and our college football picks find us wondering if the Tigers have the teeth to keep this game so close.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Oct 6, 2022 • 09:11 ET • 4 min read
Hendon Hooker Tennessee Volunteers college football picks
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We have SEC football on a Saturday afternoon when the No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers (4-0) meet the No. 25 LSU Tigers (4-1). 

Tennessee enters this matchup nearly two weeks removed from a 38-33 home victory over No. 20-ranked Florida, while LSU snuck past host Auburn 21-17.

Who will win this battle of SEC elites? Find out in my free best college football picks and predictions for this Week 6 showdown between Tennessee vs LSU this Saturday, October 8.

Tennessee vs LSU best odds

Tennessee vs LSU picks and predictions

The game hit the board at three points, moved to 3.5, back down to 2.5, and now resides at Tennessee -3. That’s our best bet for this game.

This Volunteers offense is loaded with talent, led by senior signal-caller Hendon Hooker. The senior QB has slung it 1193 yards, posting eight scoring strikes without an interception. Hooker has an additional 175 rushing yards with three TDs — he’s a threat by land and by air.

Hooker has a stable of wideouts to throw to and junior WR Jalin Hyatt is the main man, hauling in 23 balls for 323 yards with a team-high three receiving TDs. The senior signal-caller also has three other wide receivers with over 100 receiving yards, and his top four targets each have big plays of over 57 yards.

The LSU defense has been very good thus far and allows a TD on just 17% of their opponents’ offensive drives — good for 20th in the country. The Tigers allow only 14 points and 293.8 yards per contest, but they haven’t seen an offense even remotely close to what Tennessee is going to bring to Baton Rouge this Saturday.

The Tigers offense has been good, but not really great. Junior QB Jayden Daniels has been as good as advertised, throwing for over 900 yards with six scoring strikes without an interception. 

Daniels is also their leading ground-gainer, scampering for 321 yards with five TDs. The Tennessee defense surrenders less than 100 rushing yards per contest. It will be difficult for Daniels to outdo what he’s done thus far — and he’ll need to in order to win this clash. 

This should be a good ballgame between two nationally ranked sides. The Volunteers have beaten two Top-25 teams, but the Tigers lost to the only good football team they played when Florida State snuck past them by one point in their home opener.

Finally, laying three points on the road for a potentially great college football team with a 2-0 record against nationally ranked schools isn’t a bad idea. I’m not all that certain LSU hasn’t taken advantage of a soft schedule with probably-inflated defensive stats. Daniels will get his against a soft Vols passing defense, but Hooker and his offensive machine will roll this LSU football team in Baton Rouge and absolutely cover the spread. 

My best bet: Tennessee -3.0 (-101 at Pinnacle)

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Tennessee vs LSU spread analysis

I’ve given you quite a few reasons why I believe Tennessee will cover the spread, but here are a couple additional angles:

Tennessee is 95th in total defense and does allow over 400 yards per game, but keep in mind it’s faced two nationally ranked sides. LSU had a difficult time scoring against Florida State, and the Seminoles defense is less than stout. Daniels is coming off a horrible game against Auburn, and he’ll need to be nearly perfect to score with the likes of Tennessee.  

The Volunteers haven’t played a game in two weeks and are 3-0 ATS since 2021 when they have a rest advantage. Two weeks to prepare is quite a bit for a successful coach like Josh Huepel, and I expect him to have his defense ready. 

Tennessee vs LSU Over/Under analysis

65 points is probably too many for this matchup. The total opened at 62 and has gradually ascended to where it is now.

The LSU defense may or may not have inflated stats, but it’s playing with confidence and looks like a world-beater on paper. The Tigers defense can get total-reducing stops, especially early if Tennessee’s in fact rusty from the two-week layoff.

The Tigers offense scores a TD on 32% of its offensive drives, which ranks 44th in the country, up against a Tennessee defense allowing TDs on 20% of their opponents’ drives. I think Tennessee will get more stops than what the talking heads want us to believe, and that will keep the score down. 

Finally, the Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings, and I expect this game to follow that trend. 

Tennessee vs LSU betting trend to know

Road team is 6-0-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Tennessee vs. LSU.

Tennessee vs LSU game info

Location: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Date: Saturday, October 8, 2022
Kickoff: Noon ET

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