It’s the Third Saturday in October, which means one thing in college football. It’s time for Alabama to take on Tennessee.
This year, the two SEC foes enter this pivotal game with matching 5-1 records and two quarterbacks who are slinging it. So, I’ve fired up an SGP that will have us lighting up cigars with the winners.
For even more college football picks for this epic rivalry game go check out my Tennessee vs. Alabama predictions.
Our best Tennessee vs Alabama SGP for Week 8
Alabama has done its best to make everyone forget about its embarrassing season-opening loss to Florida State.
The Crimson Tide have now won five games in a row, following last week’s win over Missouri, and Ty Simpson looks more and more like a legit Heisman candidate every time he takes the field.
Alabama ranks third in EPA per play and leads the nation in EPA per dropback, and I’m not sure if Tennessee is equipped to slow the Tide down.
Tennessee also enters this game at 5-1, with the lone loss coming to Georgia in overtime. A game the Vols probably should have won. But the underlying numbers are a little troubling.
Tennessee can’t stop anyone. The Vols rank 75th in defensive success rate and have surrendered at least 31 points in all three of their SEC games, and the other conference games they played were against Arkansas and Mississippi State. Hell, they allowed UAB with dead man walking head coach Trent Dilfer to put up 24 points.
Gunnar Stockton and Taylen Green threw it all over the yard against Tennessee, and now they have to try to slow down Simpson and his terrific trio of wideouts in Ryan Williams, Germie Bernard, and Isaiah Horton in Tuscaloosa?
Giving up points won’t be Tennessee’s only problem in this game. The Vols offense is predicated on QB Joey Aguilar pushing the football down the field through the air, and Alabama has really clamped down on defense lately.
The Tide have allowed just 18.3 points per game over the last four games and now rank fourth in the country in EPA per dropback and 15th in EPA per rush. Bama scoring and Tennessee sputtering means the Tide cover the spread as well.
Now, because I expect Tennessee to be trailing for much of this matchup, Joey Aguilar should be forced to throw here. He has thrown multiple touchdown passes in four of his six games this season, including four in the loss to Georgia. Round this SGP out with Aguilar to go Over 1.5 TD passes.
Note if there is an applicable parlay boost available.
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