TCU vs Texas Odds, Picks and Predictions: Robinson Runs Over Horned Frogs

Poor TCU. The undefeated Horned Frogs must feel like Rodney Dangerfield, they “don’t get no respect.” 

A week after getting slighted by the College Football Playoff (which was remedied this week), the Horned Frogs had to look at the college football betting board and see that they were touchdown underdogs for this week’s game against the three-loss Texas Longhorns.

But, it’s pretty simple for Max Duggan and the explosive TCU offense. Win and keep your CFP hopes alive. It won’t be easy against a Texas team with a dynamic offense of its own and one that has its sights set on a return to the Big 12 title game.

So, what’s the best bet in this massive Big 12 matchup? I break it all down in my college football picks and predictions for TCU vs. Texas.

TCU vs Texas best odds

TCU vs Texas picks and predictions

When it comes to the side, this game is really hard to figure out. TCU has a never say die mentality and an offense that is good enough to keep up with Texas. The Longhorns have a dynamic duo in Quinn Ewers and Bijan Robinson and are improving quickly, but they play too inconsistently at times — hence the handful of losses.

So, I’m looking somewhere else for my best bet. Something more consistent. And the most consistent aspect of play in this game belongs to Robinson.

The star Texas running back has been outstanding this season. Robinson has rushed for 1,129 yards at a clip of nearly 6.0 yards per carry and has scored 12 touchdowns. It feels like he is getting harder to bring down each and every week. In his last four games, he has rushed for 130, 135, 140, and finally, last week, for 209 yards against Kansas State.

Robinson has eclipsed 100 yards rushing in seven straight games, which includes big games against solid rushing defenses like Iowa State and K-State. So, he shouldn't have too much trouble racking up the yards against a TCU defense that has given up some healthy yardage to teams like Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Kansas.

Robinson also has the help of a quarterback with a live arm. The Horned Frogs won’t just be able to stack the box against Robinson because then Ewers will be able to take advantage of a pass defense that ranks 94^th in yards allowed per game.

It’s hard to think TCU will be the team to slow Robinson down, so the Over on his modest rushing yard prop looks like a solid bet in this one. 

My best bet: Bijan Robinson Over 124.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

TCU vs Texas spread analysis

This matchup between TCU and Texas is really intriguing for so many reasons: the College Football Playoff implications, the Big 12 title race, and particularly, the spread. 

While the Horned Frogs may feel disrespected as touchdown underdogs, it makes sense. Despite the fact TCU has one of the best offenses in the country led by quarterback Max Duggan, the team has played with fire for a while, trailing in the second half in nearly half of its games. The Frogs have gotten pretty lucky when it comes to opposing quarterback play, facing multiple backup quarterbacks during this run. 

On top of that, the TCU defense is a little suspect, ranking 87th in total yards allowed and that could be a problem against this dynamic Texas offense.

The Longhorns are arguably one of the most underrated offenses in the nation. Quarterback Quinn Ewers’ arm talent is for real but what makes the offense truly dangerous is the balance it gets from having maybe the best back in college football in Robinson.

However, they too have had their issues maintaining leads. The Longhorns held double-digit leads in both of their Big 12 losses. Texas is likely the more talented team overall, and being at home is a significant advantage in this matchup, but TCU has a never give up mentality.

Duggan’s ability to extend plays and find his elite wide receivers downfield makes this Horned Frogs team very dangerous. And, if wide receiver Quinton Johnston is healthy, they will be able to push the ball down the field at times. 

All this means is that the range of outcomes is still too wide for this matchup. Could TCU pull off the upset? Of course. Could Texas cover the 7-point spread? Also, of course. So, that means I’m staying away from the spread, and sitting back and enjoying what should be an exciting game.

TCU vs Texas Over/Under analysis

The total for this game hit the board at 65 and has been bet up slightly to 65.5 but it just feels a bit too low for this Big 12 matchup.

TCU is where it is thanks to an offense that ranks fourth in total yards and third in scoring offense, putting up 43.1 points per contest. Duggan will certainly have a chance to attack a Texas defense that ranks 105th in passing yards allowed per game. 

Texas has put up 34 or more points in six of its seven Big 12 games and goes against a Horned Frogs defense that ranks 87th in total yards and has given up 29.7 points per game in Big 12 play. 

This game feels like it will be a back-and-forth affair, with plenty of fireworks. I would lean toward the Over.

TCU vs Texas betting trend to know

The Over is 8-1 in TCU's last nine games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NCAA betting trends for TCU vs. Texas.

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