If trusting college football odds, the Sun Belt should be boring this season. Do not trust those odds. The Sun Belt is never boring.
In fact, it could conjure up the two best storylines in college football this season. Somehow, last year’s worst team winning the Sun Belt this year would not be the more absurd of those storylines. That honor goes to the thought of Clay Helton and Georgia Southern upsetting Helton’s former employer in Week 2, although USC should be a three-score favorite on Sept. 6.
Those thoughts are largely overlooked as everyone readies for James Madison’s overdue coronation. Behold, our college football Sun Belt preview for the 2025 season.
Sun Belt best bets for 2025
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
| Southern Miss to win the Sun Belt | +2200 |
| Marshall Under 4.5 Wins | +118 |
| Appalachian State Under 5.5 Wins | +130 |
Read on for our full analysis and Sun Belt breakdown!
Odds to win the Sun Belt
| Team | Odds to win | Win total O/U |
|---|---|---|
 James Madison |
+270 | 8.5 |
 Texas State |
+700 | 7.5 |
 Louisiana |
+700 | 7.5 |
 South Alabama |
+750 | 6.5 |
 Georgia Southern |
+850 | 7.5 |
 Old Dominion |
+1000 | 5.5 |
 Appalachian State |
+1400 | 5.5 |
 Troy |
+1400 | 5.5 |
 Coastal Carolina |
+1600 | 5.5 |
 Arkansas State |
+2000 | 5.5 |
 Southern Miss |
+2200 | 5.5 |
 Marshall |
+2500 | 4.5 |
 UL-Monroe |
+3500 | 4.5 |
 Georgia State |
+3500 | 3.5 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Sun Belt preview: A New Sun Belt Rising
The first six Sun Belt championship games featured just four programs filling those 12 spots (2018-2023, including the 2020 game that was scrapped due to a COVID outbreak), as Louisiana, Appalachian State, Coastal Carolina, and Troy were the clear class of the conference.
And now, all four are fighting through transitions, their driving forces of coaches all elsewhere, albeit for some different reasons. Three matriculated to stronger programs while the Mountaineers fired Shawn Clark after their first losing season in more than a decade.
With those four in flux, a question develops while looking around the Sun Belt. Can Louisiana and head coach Michael Desormeaux make their second consecutive title game after he regained his footing following Billy Napier’s departure for Florida? If not, then the Western Division champion should provide notable odds on winning the Sun Belt.
Yes, this conference still abides by divisions.
The favorites
An argument can be made that this subhead should be singular: “The favorite.” James Madison is that heavily favored in the Sun Belt. Across the major sportsbooks, no one else is listed as shorter than +550 to win the conference, while the Dukes are routinely shorter than +300.
Analytics agree, as ESPN’s SP+ ratings consider James Madison to be six points better than the next team in the Sun Belt, Louisiana. Even with notable turnover, the Dukes return 58% of their 2024 production, the second-highest rate in the conference behind only Georgia Southern. It should not be a surprise that James Madison could be favored in 11 of 12 games, the exception coming at Louisville on Sept. 5.
But the Dukes are getting a ton of credit for bringing in UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka, reuniting him with James Madison head coach Bob Chesney from their days at Holy Cross. That credit overlooks the reality that UNLV improved after Sluka left the team over an NIL dispute.
Sluka is emblematic of a massive roster reload. Since Curt Cignetti left for Indiana after the 2023 season, James Madison has effectively rotated through its lineup twice. Entering 2024, the Dukes returned just five starters. Entering 2025, that is up to only seven.
A high-profile coaching change can yield that churn. This is not an indictment of anyone, but at some point, it becomes costly.
The rest of the field
Depending on which batch of advanced metrics you prefer, either three or four other teams warrant genuine Sun Belt title consideration. Per the gambling odds, those are Texas State (+700 at FanDuel), Louisiana (+700), South Alabama (+750), and Georgia Southern (+850).
But a flaw can be quickly found in every one of those contenders, a flaw worrying enough to scare prospective bettors away from those odds.
Texas State’s offense will likely regress, as the roster returns only 36% of its production. Head coach G.J. Kinne may set the offense’s terms, but replacing both an offensive coordinator and a quarterback should lead to some early missteps, particularly with both Troy and James Madison visiting in October.
Louisiana may welcome high-profile quarterback transfer Walker Howard, but the Ragin’ Cajuns need to replace too many receivers and defensive backs to be granted a hefty ceiling, particularly given their two toughest Sun Belt games will be on the road at James Madison and South Alabama.
Speaking of South Alabama, losing quarterback Gio Lopez and running back Fluff Bothwell dampens any offensive enthusiasm, no matter the ethos deriving from head coach Major Applewhite. A revamped offensive line will also seek chemistry. If all pieces come together before a season-closing stretch at James Madison, vs. Southern Miss, and at Texas State, then perhaps the Jaguars can dream. But that is a hefty “if.”
And then Georgia Southern has the unfortunate task of being in the Eastern division, trying to leapfrog James Madison. Clay Helton should have an offense he can rely upon, and he will need that as he returns just one starter in his defensive front-seven. That front should be exposed in the Eagles’ first two Sun Belt games, opening the conference slate at James Madison and against Southern Miss.
Pick to win the Sun Belt: Southern Miss (+2200)
That schedule quirk dooms Georgia Southern. A new defensive front should struggle against James Madison’s running back room, quite possibly the best in the Sun Belt, as well as against Southern Miss dual-threat quarterback Braylon Braxton. The MVP of last year’s Sun Belt title game rushed for 697 yards and four touchdowns in his single season with Marshall, averaging 5.7 yards per rush (sacks adjusted).
Braxton is widely seen as the best quarterback in the Sun Belt, named the preseason Offensive Player of the Year. Why is he now at Southern Miss? Because Marshall could not part ways with head coach Charles Huff quickly enough, even as he won a conference title.
Huff brought more than 20 players with him from Marshall, highlighted by Braxton and five of the Herd’s top seven receivers. Half of Southern Miss’ defensive starters may well be from Marshall.
Effectively, Huff brought a title-worthy team with him to the program that finished last in the Sun Belt last year. He has found success leaning on the transfer portal before, seven Power Four transfers leading the way for his Marshall team that upset Notre Dame in 2022, the first year in which transfers had immediate eligibility. That Herd roster had two dozen transfers.
Huff has more to prove than a coach usually does fresh off a conference title. With Braxton directing on the field, this transition should go more smoothly than would typically be the case.
Louisiana’s schedule is more difficult. And the Golden Eagles will have added prep time before that matchup, just as they will before heading to Georgia Southern. If that prep time can yield either road win — or one just before Thanksgiving at South Alabama — then this 22-to-1 ticket should at least reach the Sun Belt title game.
Favorite win totals bet: Marshall Under 4.5 Wins (+118)
When 50 players leave and more than 60 come in, all while the school administration rather loudly proclaims football is a low priority, how much faith can be put into a program?
Marshall’s clash with Huff resonated across college football. He found enough success last season that any other frictions should have been overcome. Instead, he took over one of the poorest programs in the country. Read into that.
Marshall should be better than three non-conference opponents — FBS newcomer Missouri State, FCS-level Eastern Kentucky, and at Middle Tennessee State — but those two FBS games will not be sure things. Even if the Herd sweep that slate, though, their two most winnable Sun Belt games are both on the road.
That scheduling gripe provides excellent value in finding this Under 4.5 wins at plus money.
Bonus bet: Appalachian State Under 5.5 Wins (+130)
The 2024 calendar year could not have gone worse for Appalachian State. Starting offensive tackle Jack Murphy passed away in April, Hurricane Helene wrought disaster on significant areas surrounding Boone, N.C, and then the Mountaineers went 5-6 for their first losing season in more than a decade.
Off the field, let us all hope 2025 brings happier times for Appalachian State.
On the field, some bad news looms. That 5-6 record included a 4-1 mark in one-score games. This roster was worse than its record reflected. And now it is worse than that.
First-year head coach Dowell Loggains was not brought in for a quick fix. His tenures as offensive coordinator have often been fraught, but he has an impressive track record as a recruiter. That may yield benefits in years to come, but not in 2025.
Best Sun Belt player prop bet
Matthew Sluka, James Madison QB, rushing TD props
Sluka’s reunion with Bob Chesney can be both over-hyped and productive. Sluka is not the only quarterback in the country capable of being an added hat out of the backfield; Hajj-Malik Williams proved that.
But he is certainly capable of that. In 41 games spanning four seasons at Holy Cross under Chesney, Sluka ran for 3,583 yards and 38 touchdowns, averaging 6.0 yards per carry.
Nearing a touchdown per game should be the norm for Sluka again, if he is indeed the Dukes’ starter. Betting that prop regularly should thus yield profits.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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