A possible new interstate rivalry is forming in the Sunshine State. The South Florida Bulls will head to Gainesville to take on the Florida Gators in a second consecutive season meeting between the two schools. Each team is entering this matchup at 1-1 on the season but is coming from different ends of the spectrum.
South Florida took a beating from BYU before bouncing back to defeat Howard. Florida started with a huge win over Utah before falling at home to SEC East rival Kentucky. Will Florida be able to rebound quickly from a deflating loss?
Find out in our free college football betting picks and predictions for South Florida vs. Florida on Saturday, September 17.
South Florida vs Florida best odds
South Florida vs Florida picks and predictions
South Florida’s defense looked rough in Week 1 against BYU, especially against the run, as they allowed 574 total yards and 8.4 yards per carry. However, they did improve in Week 2 by only allowing 4.2 yards per attempt, granted that was against an FCS opponent in Howard.
The South Florida special teams is also much improved through two games this season. Brian Battie is always a return threat, as he had three returns for touchdowns last season. This year, Jimmy Horn Jr. has joined the return game with a kick return touchdown in Week 1 against BYU.
The gradual improvements will need to hit an extra gear this week as the Bulls take on Florida, who played the third toughest schedule in the nation to start the season. Florida has four players that are serious rushing threats, including quarterback Anthony Richardson. Richardson ran for 106 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1 against Utah to garner some Heisman hype. However, last week he was shut down by the Kentucky defense as he was held to just four yards on six attempts.
The tougher task for South Florida will be containing the three-headed backfield for the Gators of Nay’quan Wright, Montrell Johnson, and Trevor Etienne. Wright is listed as the starter, but he has been the least effective of the three, only averaging 3.5 yards per carry thus far. Meanwhile, Johnson and Etienne — yes, he is the brother of Travis Etienne Jr. — are averaging 7.2 and 7.9 yards per attempt.
However, Florida may use this opportunity as a get-right game for Richardson and Wright, and they will be without their starting tackle Michael Tarquin. Richardson has looked shaky at best in the passing game, with passing totals of 311 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs on a 52.5% completion percentage in two games.
He looked terribly inaccurate against Kentucky, and if he still has NFL aspirations, he will need to show off a better passing ability. This mindset leads me to like South Florida against the spread. As the Bulls’ defense continues to improve, they may give Richardson some more fits if Florida tries to get their passing game going.
I feel confident in Florida ML, but this spread is too high, and South Florida will keep it within three touchdowns.
My best bet: South Florida +24.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
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South Florida vs Florida betting preview
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•Spread analysis •Over/Under analysis •Game info •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know
Spread analysis
It has been a bit of a rough start for South Florida quarterback Gerry Bohanon, who transferred in from Baylor. He is 34/58 for 391 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs through two games. However, he has found a reliable target in Xavier Weaver. The redshirt Junior wideout has 12 catches for 170 yards thus far this season.
Florida's pass defense is not bad, but it is certainly not their typical NFL-level secondary. They allowed some big plays last week to Kentucky through the air, including a 55-yard touchdown pass to true Freshman wideout Dane Key. Bohanon and Weaver should be able to continue their strong connection this week.
Another big hit to the Gators' defense comes at the linebacker position. They will be without second-leading tackler Ventrell Miller. After his exit from last week’s game against Kentucky, the Wildcats were suddenly able to get their run game going. Without Miller, South Florida should be able to get some big runs with Battle, who is averaging 11.9 yards per carry this year.
While South Florida is a very different team from last year, the Bulls only lost by 22 points to the Gators. That was also a dominant game by Richardson, who threw for 152 yards and 2 TDs and ran for 115 yards and a touchdown. This year’s game should only be an improvement for South Florida, so they should be able to cover the spread.
Over/Under analysis
The total has moved a decent bit thus far as it opened at 58.5 and has moved as high as 61. I can understand why the Over seems like a good bet, as the Over is 5-0 in South Florida’s last five non-conference games.
Florida also typically bounces back from poor offensive performances as the Over is 5-1 in the Gators' last six games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. However, the game flow just does not scream high-scoring to me. I think Florida’s defense, while banged up, will still be able to hold South Florida to under their season average of 26 points per game.
I also believe that the Gators will want to try and get Richardson’s passing improved, and that will help the South Florida defense. While this isn’t my best bet in this game, I do still really like the Under here.
Florida will likely be slow to get their scoring started, and South Florida will be unlikely to light up the scoreboard. Give me the Under at any number of 60 or higher.
South Florida vs Florida game info
• Location: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
• Date: Saturday, September 17, 2022
• Kick-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: SEC Network
South Florida vs Florida key injuries
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South Florida vs Florida betting trend to know
Florida is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games against a non-conference opponent. Find more NCAA betting trends for South Florida vs. Florida.
