Florida State will look to improve on a middling Week 0 performance as they host SMU to close out the Week 1 college football slate.
The Mustangs should find plenty of offensive success against a Seminoles defense that struggled against quality opponents last season, while I like both running games to exceed expectations in my SMU vs. Florida State combos. Read on to see my college football picks for Monday, Sept. 7.
Best SMU vs Florida State combos for Week 1
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SMU vs Florida State combo #1: Seminoles fall flat
SMU -2.5- ⬇️ Under 53.5
- SMU team total Over 27.5
The Florida State Seminoles looked decidedly underwhelming in their 34-17 win over New Mexico State in Week 0. The Florida State offense still has a lot to prove against an SMU Mustangs team that finished 25th defensively in SP+ last season.
The Seminoles will struggle against a Power Four team in SMU. Ashton Daniels threw a pick against the Aggies, giving him 23 interceptions against 25 touchdown passes for his career. He’ll have trouble cleaning that up against an SMU defense that totaled 18 interceptions last season. That has me backing SMU and the Under in tonight’s game.
The Mustangs also boast an offense that put up 31.4 ppg last year. SMU returns a talented offensive line, a proven quarterback in Kevin Jennings, and a tough runner in Kendrick Raphael. That will give the Mustangs the gas to hit their team total.
SMU vs Florida State combo #2: Winning with Jennings
- SMU -2.5
- Kevin Jennings Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Kevin Jennings Over 264.5 passing yards
Kevin Jennings returns for his senior year at SMU after setting career highs in both passing yardage (3,641) and touchdowns thrown (26), and will be looking to build on that success in his final collegiate season. Jennings doesn’t contribute much with his legs — he totaled just 54 yards on the ground in 2025 — so if he’s going to be a significant part of this Mustangs attack, it’ll come through the air.
It may be early in the season, but we’ve already seen Florida State show some weakness against the passing game. The Seminoles allowed 272 yards and two touchdowns to New Mexico State’s Trey Hedden, a Furman transfer with little pedigree and far less talent surrounding him than Jennings enjoys at SMU.
Jennings threw for multiple scores nine times in 13 games last season, and also surpassed tonight’s yardage total on nine occasions. Florida State was 60th in defensive EPA per dropback last year (0.06), and Jennings will carve up this vulnerable secondary.
SMU vs Florida State combo #3: Slow and steady
- ⬇️ Under 53.5
- Kendrick Raphael Over 65.6 rushing yards
Ousmane Kromah Over 56.5 rushing yards
Florida State should find some success running the ball with Ousmane Kromah, who put up 115 yards on 14 carries against New Mexico State. SMU proved stiff against the run last year (-0.04 EPA per rush), but Kromah’s total is easily manageable for a back who averaged 5.7 yards per carry as a freshman last year.
The Mustangs have a proven running threat in Kendrick Raphael, who scored 13 times and averaged 4.1 yards per carry for the California Golden Bears in the 2025 season. Florida State allowed 141.1 yards per game on the ground last year. While the Seminoles were able to slow that Aggies running attack, this SMU offensive line is a much bigger challenge.
If both running games find the success I’m expecting, that should keep the clock running. I’m backing both primary running options to hit their yardage Overs while the game plays to the Under on the scoreboard.
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