There are several precious things that I hold dear in this world, and one of those is college football player props.
The expanding market brings some intriguing options in Week 7, so I’ve combed through them and have selected the three best plays for the night slate.
Here are my three favorite player props and college football picks for the evening games on Saturday, October 11.
Best college football player props for Week 7 late games
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jaden Baugh |
Over 12.5 receiving yards | -114 |
 Antonio Williams |
Over 50.5 receiving yards | -114 |
 LaNorris Sellers |
Over 29.5 rushing yards | -114 |
Prop bet #1: Jaden Baugh Over 12.5 receiving yards
Florida Gators running back Jadan Baugh is a sight to behold. The weight room warrior uses his sheer strength to bulldoze through defenders and leave arm tacklers in his rearview, and the staff has rewarded him for his efforts with a healthy workload.
The sophomore has 89 touches through five games, 68 more than any other Florida skill player. He should be utilized heavily again in Week 7 in a tough matchup on the road against the No. 5 Texas A&M Aggies.
The staff has emphasized getting Baugh looks in the passing game lately as he’s hauled in 13 passes for 84 yards across the last three games alone. Getting this 6-foot-1, 231-pound monster the ball in any way seems like a good idea, and so expect several more looks on Saturday.
Baugh’s receiving yardage prop of 12.5 is too low considering his trusted workload (15+ touches in four consecutive games) and elite talent. Florida is a 7.5-point underdog according to FanDuel Sportsbook, so the game script dictates that the Gators will likely be playing from behind.
- Matchup: Florida vs. Texas A&M
- Date/Time: Saturday, October 11 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Kyle Field
- TV: ESPN
Prop bet #2: Antonio Williams Over 50.5 receiving yards
It’s been a tough year for the Clemson Tigers, but Dabo Swinney’s squad appears to be finding its footing on offense. They’ve averaged at least 6.1 yards per play in three straight games, headlined by a 38-point showing against North Carolina last week.
One reason for the improvement is the return of go-to receiver Antonio Williams, who led the team with 904 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns a season ago. He was banged up early in the opening game but returned two games ago, catching five passes in each of his ensuing two appearances.
Week 7 brings a favorable matchup against the Boston College Eagles, who are surrendering 31.6 ppg. They don’t cover well (99th in EPA per pass, 95th in PFF’s coverage grade) or rush the passer (115th in front seven havoc), so quarterback Cade Klubnik should have plenty of time to slice and dice this secondary.
Expect Williams to be a primary beneficiary of this soft matchup, returning to form with a banner week.
- Matchup: Clemson vs. Boston College
- Date/Time: Saturday, October 11 at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Alumni Stadium
- TV: ACC Network
Prop bet #3: LaNorris Sellers Over 29.5 rushing yards
The South Carolina Gamecocks are going to need quarterback LaNorris Sellers to be at his best in a tough night game against the LSU Tigers in Death Valley. He’s an extremely talented young signal caller, so I’m looking for him to answer the bell.
South Carolina doesn’t have much of a traditional ground game, averaging just 99.8 rushing yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry while ranking 131st in rushing success rate. Part of that is due to a struggling offensive line (128th in front-seven havoc allowed) and part is due to the lack of a go-to running back.
How do the Gamecocks plan on moving the ball against a tough LSU defense that allows only 12.2 ppg? Rely on Sellers. He hasn’t truly unlocked his rushing prowess yet this year, but there were glimpses against Kentucky (14 rushes for 81 yards) in the last game, and he’s no longer banged up following the bye week.
The redshirt sophomore ran for 88 yards and two scores in a single half of action against LSU a year ago. He eclipsed 29.5 rushing yards in eight of 12 games a year ago, and one should expect similar numbers once he returns to form. There will be designed runs and scrambling opportunities alike for Sellers to have rushing volume.
LSU’s metrics aren’t as favorable as its surface-level stats, either, so this may not be as tough of a matchup as it looks like on the surface. The Tigers rank 56th in pass rush grade (per PFF) and 78th in tackling, and perhaps Sellers can exploit those deficiencies.
- Matchup: South Carolina vs. LSU
- Date/Time: Saturday, October 11 at 7:45 p.m. ET
- Location: Tiger Stadium
- TV: SEC Network
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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