College football returns for Week 2, and there’s a full slate of games for bettors to sift through to find valuable plays.
I’m turning my attention to the player prop market, where I have three top plays for the afternoon games.
My favorite player props and college football picks for Saturday, September 6 tell you why it will be tough sledding for Rocco Becht, Seth McGowan, and Sesi Vailahi.
Best college football player props for Week 2
Becht u236.5 pass yds (-114)
McGowan u60.5 rush yds (-114)
Vailahi u27.5 rush yds (-114)
Prop bet #1: Rocco Becht Under 236.5 passing yards
The Cy-Hawk Series returns as the No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones and Iowa Hawkeyes renew one of college football’s greatest rivalries at Jack Trice Stadium.
Although the Cyclones are 2-0 and are the 16th-ranked team in the nation, they’ve dropped six straight games to the Hawkeyes in this venue and are 8-22 against their rival all-time in Ames.
Offense may be hard to come by, per usual in this matchup.
Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht stands a tall task of generating a passing offense in a difficult matchup without two NFL receivers from a year ago, Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. The two combined for 167 receptions for 2,377 yards and 17 touchdowns.
Becht threw for 272 yards in this matchup a year ago, but Noel and Higgins combined for 201 of them on the receiving end. This year’s team is still searching for a top option at wideout, as no wide receiver has seen more than six total targets through two games, a measly number.
They may find those answers eventually, but they haven’t found them yet, and now face a tough Phil Parker defense.
Both teams will run the ball plenty and keep the clock moving, limiting possessions and thereby opportunities for offensive output. Sign me up for Becht’s Under.
- Matchup: Iowa vs. Iowa State
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 6 at Noon ET
- Location: Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA
- TV: FOX
Prop bet #2: Seth McGowan Under 60.5 rushing yards
In case you haven’t heard, there’s bad blood between the No. 20 Mississippi Rebels and the Kentucky Wildcats. Lane Kiffin said that he put a ton of prep work into facing Kentucky this offseason, and I believe him.
Kentucky has a shaky passing attack this season as starting quarterback Zach Calzada went just 10-for-23 passing for 85 yards in the opener. The running game is naturally expected to carry the workload, and that was true in the opener when the Wildcats ran 43 times for 220 yards and three scores against Toledo.
That sort of offensive attack shouldn’t require too much prep work.
Seth McGowan ran 18 times for 78 yards and a score, but split the workload with Dante Dowdell, who ran 14 times for 129 yards and a score of his own.
That leads us to Week 2, where we can expect a split workload along with diminished efficiency.
The best part of Mississippi’s team lately has been its defensive front. The Rebels suffocated opposing ground attacks last year, allowing 2.3 yards per rush. While they lost a lot of NFL talent off the front, it’s still expected to be a team strength.
Kentucky’s one-dimensional offense shouldn’t pose many fits, and the Mississippi staff will be reliant upon stopping the run.
- Matchup: Mississippi vs. Kentucky
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 6 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
- TV: ABC
Prop bet #3: Sesi Vailahi Under 27.5 rushing yards
It’s an interesting decision by the bookmakers to post a prop for a backup running back for the Oklahoma State Cowboys, who are 28.5-point underdogs in Eugene against the No. 6 Oregon Ducks. The Cowboys struggled in the opener against an FCS school, managing 359 total yards against UT Martin, and now will be on backup quarterback Zane Flores.
The ground game failed to materialize, managing 127 yards on 42 carries, “good” for just 3.0 yards per tote.
Now-injured quarterback Hauss Hejny led the way with four carries for 27 yards and a score, but his absence creates uncertainty about the effectiveness of the ground game for Mike Gundy’s squad.
Kalib Hicks was the clear RB1, handling 21 carries to Sesi Vailahi’s nine. Vailahi forced just a single missed tackle and averaged a lowly 1.9 yards after contact per attempt.
His effectiveness is in question — as it is with this entire offense — and the game script is expected to be a poor one for rushing contributions given the massive spread.
- Matchup: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon
- Date/Time: Saturday, September 6 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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