It’s time for Championship Week as there are nine enticing title games spread across Friday and Saturday, bringing along a bevvy of college football player props in the market.
Starting with Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen on Friday and concluding with Virginia wide receiver Trell Harris on Saturday, here are my five college football picks this weekend.
Best college football player props for Conference Championship Week
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Maddux Madsen |
Under 236.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Broc Lowry |
Over 118.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Bear Bachmeier |
Under 31.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Nate Frazier |
Over 61.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Trell Harris |
Over 62.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Prop bet #1: Maddux Madsen Under 236.5 passing yards
Let’s kick things off with a lone Friday night player prop for the Mountain West Championship game between the UNLV Rebels and the Boise State Broncos. Although there's expected to be a lot of offense in this game — the total is 59.5 points — I’m siding with the Under on Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen’s passing yards. Allow me to explain.
There are three main factors influencing this handicap: rust, matchup, and weather.
Madsen hasn’t appeared in a game since November 1, when he attempted just four passes and looked very hampered by an ankle injury before departing early. He’ll be playing with an insole in his cleat, and this is his first game action in over a month, so it’d be natural to see some rust.
Boise should attempt to lean into its ground game against a UNLV defense that simply cannot stop the run (132nd in EPA per rush allowed). The Rebels have surrendered over 2,100 rushing yards this season, and the Broncos have really gotten the ground game going lately, averaging 46.3 rushing attempts over their last three games.
They’ll be content to take whatever UNLV will allow, so another ground-heavy approach could be in a store on a cold and rainy Friday night at Albertsons Stadium.
- Matchup: UNLV vs. Boise State
- Date/Time: Friday, December 5 at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID
- TV: FOX
Prop bet #2: Broc Lowry Over 118.5 passing yards
There isn’t expected to be much offense in the MAC Championship Game, as the total is set at 42.5. Still, the reaction has gone too far, and I’m buying back on Broc Lowry’s passing yardage prop at a measly price of 118.5 yards.
The Western Michigan Broncos don’t throw the ball a ton, but they may be forced to the air a bit more than usual against a tough Miami (OH) RedHawks defense, allowing just 3.6 yards per rush. Chuck Martin’s squad hasn’t allowed 150 rushing yards in a game since September 20, and the advanced metrics support such dominance: 21st in front seven havoc, 23rd in line yards, 24th in stuff rate.
Lowry’s prop is deflated after he barely used his arm in the final two games of the season, throwing for just 32 yards against Northern Illinois and 100 against Eastern Michigan. Those games were both decided by double-digit margins in relatively easy WMU wins, however, and Saturday’s Championship sees a spread of just 1.5 points in the Broncos’ favor.
In what’s expected to be a tight game where Miami (OH) shuts down the run better than most of WMU’s previous opponents, Lowry’s arm will be needed to move the ball.
The sophomore quarterback has surpassed this number in seven of his last nine contests. This number is an overreaction to his last two games, which bear little resemblance to this matchup, and he averaged 170.9 passing yards in the seven games prior.
- Matchup: Miami (OH) vs. Western Michigan
- Date/Time: Saturday, December 6 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
- TV: ESPN
Prop bet #3: Bear Bachmeier Under 31 rushing yards
We made Bear Bachmeier’s rushing yardage Under a best bet the first time that the BYU Cougars met the Texas Tech Red Raiders, and it came through as he rushed 11 times for 12 yards in a humbling defeat. Let’s go right back to the well in the Big 12 Championship Game in what remains a remarkably difficult matchup.
The Red Raiders are a dominant defensive group, surrendering just 258.9 total yards per game and 4.0 yards per play. They’ve been especially strong at stopping the run, allowing just 68.9 rushing yards per game on 2.3 yards per carry.
The defensive front is led by ends David Bailey (16 TFL) and Romello Height (nine sacks), and tackles Lee Hunter and Anthony Holmes Jr. (combined 15.5 TFL). They live in opposing backfields, ranking fourth in front seven havoc and third in line yards while paving the way for the nation’s top-ranked rush defense in terms of EPA and success rate.
The Cougars will find it difficult to move the ball on the ground, so traditional rushing yards are in doubt for Bachmeier. Negative sack yardage counts against a quarterback’s rushing yardage in college football, and Bachmeier will be in danger of that against a defense averaging 3.0 sacks per game.
- Matchup: BYU vs. Texas Tech
- Date/Time: Saturday, December 6 at 12:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Yulman Stadium, New Orleans, LA
- TV: ABC
Prop bet #4: Nate Frazier Over 61.5 rushing yards
Nate Frazier has taken on a bigger part of the offense for the Georgia Bulldogs as the season has progressed, averaging 86.7 rushing yards across the final six games of the year. He’s the most reliable and effective part of the offense, so here’s betting he continues churning out yardage in the SEC Championship.
The Alabama Crimson Tide field a fine defense, but they aren’t perfect at defending the ground game (68th in EPA per rush allowed). There have been tackling and gap assignment issues, leading to a propensity to allow big rushes, which explains why they’re ranked 111th in rushing explosiveness.
Frazier has been a man possessed lately, forcing at least four missed tackles in each of his last four games. He didn’t force that many missed tackles in any of the first eight games, so it’s evident that he’s on a heater, and this matchup doesn’t scare me away.
- Matchup: Georgia vs. Alabama
- Date/Time: Saturday, December 6 at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
- TV: ABC
Prop bet #5: Trell Harris Over 62.5 receiving yards
Death, taxes, and fading this Duke Blue Devils defense.
Manny Diaz’s squad has collapsed on that side of the ball this season, surrendering 414.7 total yards per game and 6.2 yards per play. Miraculously, they’ve managed to reach the ACC Championship despite these numbers — but the 10-2 Virginia Cavaliers are ready to capitalize.
The Hoos will look to attack a porous secondary ranked 131st in EPA per pass allowed. Duke has been bad against the pass both on a per-play basis (120th in success rate) and in allowing big plays (118th in explosiveness), creating a perfect scenario for opposing wideouts to get open.
Trell Harris has been the go-to wideout for Virginia, leading the team in targets (78), receptions (56), receiving yards (809), and receiving scores (5). He’s been a reliable member of the offense to close the year, handling at least seven targets in each of his last five games (and at least nine targets in the final three).
Harris dominated this matchup just a few weeks ago, catching eight passes for 161 yards and a score in Week 12. He’s ready for another big game against a defense checking in at 113th in coverage grade (per PFF).
- Matchup: Duke vs. Virginia
- Date/Time: Saturday, December 6 at 8:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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