One of the week’s biggest and most meaningful college football matchups kicks off in Tuscaloosa, where Ty Simpson and the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide host John Mateer and the No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners.
A win would all but lock Alabama into the SEC title game, while Oklahoma enters in must-win mode to keep its hopes of making the 12-team College Football Playoff alive.
My Oklahoma vs. Alabama predictions and college football picks break down who will come out on top in this pivotal SEC matchup set to kick off on Saturday, November 15.
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Oklahoma vs Alabama prediction
Oklahoma vs Alabama best bet: Oklahoma moneyline (+180)
The Alabama Crimson Tide stunned the college football world with its season-opening loss to Florida State. But Kalen DeBoer and his team have done a remarkable job of putting that behind them.
The Crimson Tide is rolling, having won eight games in a row.
QB Ty Simpson has a chance to be in New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony and leads an Alabama offense that ranks sixth in the country in EPA per dropback and 13th in success rate on dropbacks.
While Simpson is playing great, the Tide have become one-dimensional. The run game ranks 110th in success rate against the rush. And being one-dimensional against what is arguably the best defense in the country is not a recipe for success.
Now, the Oklahoma Sooners need to win this game. A third loss will almost certainly knock them out of the College Football Playoff picture.
But the Sooners can succeed in this matchup.
This is an elite Brent Venables defense. The Sooners lead the nation in defensive success rate and are fourth in opponent EPA per play. They are fifth in EPA per dropback and ninth in success rate on dropbacks.
If Alabama can’t run the ball, this defense, which ranks second in the country in sack rate, will come after Simpson with exotic blitz packages that he hasn’t seen much of this season.
Meanwhile, the Sooners will need a big performance out of John Mateer and the run game. Mateer is coming off his best rushing game since his thumb injury, going for 80 yards and a score on 16 carries against Tennessee.
Alabama ranks 60th in success rate vs. the rush.
Defending and controlling the tempo of the game by running the football gives the Sooners a path to victory in a must-win game.
Oklahoma vs Alabama same-game parlay
As I mentioned, running the football will be crucial if the Sooners want to win this game. And that means also running the ball with John Mateer.
He looked as good as he has all season last time out and certainly the best since he injured his thumb. He looked confident and strong on the ball. Which he needs to be against this good Alabama team.
His rushing total for this game is sitting at 35.5. In recent games against running QBs, Alabama has surrendered 67 yards to South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and 56 to Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia.
Mateer should get Over this number on Saturday.
Meanwhile, I also like Ty Simpson to go Over his passing yards prop of 268.5. Passing against this Oklahoma defense isn’t easy, but it’s all Alabama can really do.
Plus, the Tide might be forced into more throwing situations in what should be a tight matchup. Not to mention Oklahoma gave up over 300 yards passing in a recent loss to Mississippi.
On top of that, Simpson has gone Over this number in four of his last seven games.
Oklahoma vs Alabama SGP
- Oklahoma moneyline
- John Mateer Over 35.5 rushing yards
- Ty Simpson Over 268.5 passing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Wily Williams!
I believe that Alabama's touchdowns will come through the air in this game, and not only does Ryan Williams have value, but he's the Tide's most explosive receiver.
Oklahoma vs Alabama SGP
- Oklahoma moneyline
- John Mateer Over 35.5 rushing yards
- Ty Simpson Over 268.5 passing yards
- Ryan Williams anytime touchdown
Oklahoma vs Alabama game predictions
Oklahoma vs Alabama moneyline prediction
It feels like a lifetime ago, but Oklahoma can give Alabama the same problems Florida State did in that season-opening stunner. On offense, John Mateer and Co. can control the tempo with the run game. And the defense can make life tough on Alabama, knowing it can key on the pass. Oklahoma pulls off the upset on Saturday.
Oklahoma vs Alabama spread prediction
It's no surprise that I'll back Oklahoma on the spread, since I'm taking the Sooners to win as outright underdogs. I would prefer the spread with the Sooners if it were six, and that's one of the reasons why my best bet is the moneyline.
Oklahoma vs Alabama Over/Under prediction
I don't have a strong feeling for the total here. Maybe a slight lean to the Under. Oklahoma's defense is elite, while its offense relies heavily on the run game. However, I would not be surprised if we saw some explosive plays as well, which could send this slightly above the number.
Oklahoma vs Alabama odds
- Spread: Oklahoma +5.5 | Alabama -5.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma +180 | Alabama -220
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 | Under 45.5
Oklahoma vs Alabama trend to know
Alabama has hit the Team Total Under in five of its last six games, earning +4.05 Units and a 60% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma vs Alabama.
How to watch Oklahoma vs Alabama
| Location | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date | Saturday, November 15, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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