Oklahoma State vs TCU Odds, Picks and Predictions: Undefeated Foes Exchange Offensive Blows

Between two explosive offenses and two questionable defenses, all signs point to this undefeated matchup being an absolute shootout. We break it all down in our Oklahoma State vs. TCU betting picks and predictions below.

JD Yonke - Contributor at Covers.com
JD Yonke • Contributor
Oct 15, 2022 • 07:48 ET • 4 min read
Spencer Sanders Oklahoma State Cowboys Big 12 college football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

One of the top games of Week 7 sees Spencer Sanders and the No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys travel to Fort Worth to battle the No. 13 TCU Horned Frogs.

TCU is off to a 5-0 start for the first time since 2017. Sonny Dykes has immediately brought optimism to a program that has lacked positive results for a few years.

Mike Gundy remains a steady presence at the top of the Big 12 standings and hopes to hand Dykes his first loss as coach of the Horned Frogs. 

Check out our college football picks and predictions for Oklahoma State vs. TCU.

Oklahoma State vs TCU best odds

Oklahoma State vs TCU picks and predictions

Both of these offenses have been among the best in the entire nation. There will be two Top-5 units seeking to find the end zone, as Oklahoma State and TCU are tied for third nationally with exactly 46.4 points per game. There’s every reason to expect a shootout between these two teams in Week 7.

TCU also ranks third nationally in total offense, racking up 530 yards per game. Sonny Dykes’ offense has flicked immediately in Fort Worth and the Frogs have consistently put points on the scoreboard, scoring at least 38 points in each of their five games this season.

It should come as no surprise that TCU has been exceeding their point totals this year, going 3-2 to the Over while over half of their games have seen a total Over 70. This total of 68 isn’t out of the ordinary and is actually the lowest total in a Horned Frogs game since September 10.

Quarterback Max Duggan has looked fantastic since his insertion into the starting lineup, completing 73.2% of his passes for 14 touchdowns and one interception while averaging a robust 10.3 yards per attempt. Quentin Johnston has an opportunity to be a first-round NFL Draft pick at receiver and is fresh off a massive game with 14 receptions for 206 yards and a touchdown against Kansas.

Oklahoma State had one of the best defenses in the country a year ago, but the Cowboys have taken a step back on that side of the ball in 2022. Through five games, they rank 106th in total yards allowed. The passing defense ranks 126th nationally, allowing 304 yards per game, which is concerning in this matchup.

When the Pokes have the ball, Spencer Sanders & Co. should find success against a Horned Frogs defense that ranks 94th in total defense (402.8 yards per game) and 110th in passing defense (268.8 passing yards per game). Sanders has thrown for 12 touchdowns with only two interceptions this year, adding another 241 yards and six scores on the ground. The Pokes are also 4-1 to the Over this season.

We have two explosive, Top-5 offenses, two veteran quarterbacks, and two suspect defenses. Give me the Over.

My best bet: Over 68 (-109 at BetRivers)

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Oklahoma State vs TCU spread analysis

The line for this game currently sits at TCU -4. Let’s take a look at how both teams arrived at a 5-0 record.

Oklahoma State walked over three bad teams to start the year in Central Michigan, Arizona State, and Arkansas Pine-Bluff. They then beat Baylor 36-25 despite being outgained 457-379 in total yardage, and last week defeated Texas Tech 41-31 despite being outgained 527-434 by a third-string quarterback.

TCU started with two scrimmages against Colorado and Tarleton State, then beat SMU 42-34 in a close game against a Mustangs team that has now lost three straight games in unimpressive fashion. They walloped Oklahoma 55-24, but the Sooners now look like they may be the worst team in the Big 12 until further notice, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel was knocked out early on a dirty, illegal hit.

Still, the Horned Frogs were undeniably impressive in that contest, scoring 41 first-half points. Most recently, TCU beat a previously undefeated Kansas team 38-31 despite being outgained 540-452 while facing a backup quarterback for most of the game.

All in all, both of these teams haven’t been perfect. They’ve still found a way to get the job done and keep the perfect record intact. 

The Cowboys are 22-7-1 ATS against a team with a winning record and 15-5-1 in their last 21 games overall. They’ve been a fantastic bet in both conference play (10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 Big 12 games) and the month of October (38-17-1 ATS run).

Oklahoma State vs TCU Over/Under analysis

Let’s take a look at what some of the advanced statistics say about these two teams.

TCU has undoubtedly been fantastic offensively to start the year. The Horned Frogs rank second in predicted points added (PPA) and first in explosiveness. They’re a threat to either take the top off the defense or move the chains efficiently, ranking 19th in success rate.

The rushing attack has been fantastic behind a veteran offensive line and future NFL running back Kendre Miller, ranking fourth in rushing PPA and third in rushing explosiveness.

Oklahoma State’s defense has been nothing special after losing plenty of talent to the NFL. The Cowboys rank 86th in PPA and 118th in explosiveness defensively. Those big plays should be there early and often for TCU. Most concerning about the Pokes defensively is a leaky secondary that ranks 97th in PPA and 101st in explosiveness against the pass.

On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma State ranks 31st in passing PPA and 21st in passing success rate. Sanders & Co. should find success against a Horned Frogs secondary that ranks 91st in passing PPA and 127th in passing explosiveness. Most recently, Kansas’ backup quarterback came into the game and threw for four touchdowns with big play after big play.

Oklahoma State vs TCU betting trend to know

Oklahoma State is 5-1 to the Over in its last six games overall. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oklahoma State vs. TCU.

Oklahoma State vs TCU game info

Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Date: Saturday, October 15, 2022
Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. ET

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