Ohio State vs Purdue Odds, Picks, and Predictions: SuperMarv Carves Up Boilermakers Secondary

After playing around with Maryland last week, Ohio State finally woke up in the second half and ate the Terrapins for lunch. Now Ryan Day’s program has what should be considered a walk in the park this week as they head to West Lafayette to take on Purdue.

The Boilermakers have struggled under new head coach Ryan Walters, particularly on his side of the ball with the defense being one of the worst in the Big Ten and the Buckeyes should be able to take advantage of it early and often — the college football odds certainly think so. 

Find out where my best bets lie in my free college football picks for Ohio State vs. Purdue on Saturday, October 14.

Ohio State vs Purdue best odds

Ohio State vs Purdue picks and predictions

While it hasn’t felt like the Ohio State Buckeyes have been as dominant on offense this season under Ryan Day, they still rank 14th in EPA per play with new quarterback Kyle McCord under center.

The problem for Ohio State has been an inability to run the ball and with TreVeyon Henderson dealing with an undisclosed injury that caused him to be a late scratch against Maryland. The Buckeyes are going to need to lean on the arm of McCord and the hands of his old high school teammate to put up big numbers in this game.

Marvin Harrison Jr. single-handedly reignited Ohio State’s offense last week against Maryland with 163 yards and a score on eight catches. He would have had more too if McCord was more consistent with his ball placement.

But at the end of the day, McCord — who played with Harrison Jr. at St. Joseph’s Preparatory School — clearly trusts Harrison Jr. to go up and get the ball to make him look good. The entire passing attack went through Harrison Jr. last week, especially after fellow potential first-round receiver Emeka Egbuka left the game with an injury. 

Given the Buckeyes' love for throwing the ball, inability to run the rock, and with Egbuka potentially out, Harrison Jr. should clear his 88.5-yard receiving line with ease against a Purdue secondary that’s giving up the ninth-most passing yards in the Big Ten (226.5).

Even with McCord having some hiccups in his first season starting for Ohio State, Day’s offense remains seventh in EPA per pass, and having one of the most talented receivers college football has ever seen is a huge reason why.

Since Harrison Jr. became a full-time starter last season as a true sophomore, he’s gone over 88.5 receiving yards 10 times in 18 games, including in three of five games this season. Over those 18 games, he’s averaged 97.8 receiving yards per game and has been flat-out dominant with his combination of ball skills, body control, and explosiveness. 

He can exploit Walter’s defense which sits 58th in EPA per pass and 63rd in EPA per play, and is expected to start multiple freshmen and transfers against the Buckeyes due to injury.

The Boilermakers have allowed a pass catcher to go over 88.5 receiving yards in three of six games, but haven’t faced an offense nearly as explosive as Ohio State’s yet.

My best bet: Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 88.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Ohio State vs Purdue same-game parlay

Marvin Harrison Jr. Over 88.5 receiving yards (-115)

Ohio State TT Over 34.5 (-125)

Purdue TT Under 16.5 (-185)

Ohio State -19.5 (-110)

+400 at bet365

It’s time for the Buckeyes to flex their muscles and use all that talent to blow out a middling Big Ten program. 

With an offense that’s 14th in EPA per play and a defense that’s 24th in EPA per play, Ohio State should be able to shut down the Purdue offense and score enough points to cover the spread.

This season, Day’s offense is averaging a shade over 34.5 points per game — they’re scoring 35 per contest, the 30th-best in the country — and defensive coordinator Jim Knowles' unit has been borderline dominant holding teams to just 10.2 per game, third best in college football.

The Buckeyes have scored at least 35 points in three of five games this season and have held teams below 16.5 in four of five (Maryland scored 17).

Purdue, on the other hand, sits 89th in points per game and 87th in points allowed per game and is coming off a 20-14 loss to Iowa where the Hawkeyes quarterback completed just 28.6% of his passes.

If the Boilermakers couldn’t keep up against an inept passing attack, why should you expect anything different against the Buckeyes?

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Ohio State vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis

Most books opened with the Buckeyes as 20- to 20.5-point road favorites and have slowly come down to between 18.5 and 19.5.

This season, Day’s program is 2-2-1 against the spread with an even 0-point differential against it. They covered last week against Maryland and earlier in the season against Western Kentucky while pushing against Notre Dame. The 19.5-point spread against Purdue is their second-lowest of the season.

As for the Boilermakers, they’ve struggled to cover this season with a 2-4 ATS record. They’ve covered in their two wins (Virginia Tech and Illinois) in which they were +1 in both, but have failed to cover in each loss. A 39-35 loss to Fresno State was the lone time they were the favorite this season.

With some expected rain in West Lafayette Saturday afternoon, the game total has dropped to around 49 after opening as high as 52.5.

While the Buckeyes offense is explosive, they’re only 1-4 this season when betting the Over, in part due to their defensive dominance. This is the first game of the season for Ohio State in which the total is below 50.

Purdue is an even 3-3 when betting the Over this season, cashing it in two of its three Big Ten games so far against Wisconsin and Illinois. They failed to go Over 38.5 in their other Big Ten game against Iowa.

Ohio State vs Purdue betting trend to know

Ohio State has gone Over the total in seven of its last 12 games (+1.50 units / 11% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Ohio State vs Purdue.

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