For all of Lincoln Riley’s struggles in offseason messaging, the USC Trojans find themselves in vague position to make the College Football Playoff in Riley’s fourth season in Los Angeles.
The Trojans showed up at No. 19 in the initial rankings from the Playoff selection committee, needing some help to crack the postseason, but not an unfathomable amount of assistance.
Of course, they have to keep winning and winning convincingly for any of that to matter. A primetime chance against the Northwestern Wildcats would be a great moment to emphasize the “convincingly” half of that thought.
My Northwestern vs. USC props and college football picks expect the Trojans to put their trust in Jayden Maiava.
For full-game analysis, check out Andrew Caley's Northwestern vs. USC predictions.
Northwestern vs USC props for Week 11
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jayden Maiava |
Over 1.5 passing TDs | -188 |
| Jayden Maiava |
3+ TD passes | +194 |
 Preston Stone |
Under 162.5 passing yards | -114 |
Jayden Maiava Over 1.5 passing TDs
FanDuel lists Jayden Maiava to throw 2+ touchdown passes at -194 amid “alternate TD passes” props, but this Over/Under is at 1.5 with the Over at -188.
Those six cents may not seem like much, but attention to those kinds of details can turn a so-so season into a mildly profitable one, or vice versa.
At No. 19 in the Playoff rankings and 6-2 outright this season, the USC Trojans' postseason hopes are alive. The Trojans cannot risk getting dragged down by Northwestern’s defense, an ugliness that would diminish the argument for USC’s Playoff consideration.
Facing a decent defense, USC should trust what it does best, and that's throwing the ball.
Jayden Maiava struggled at Nebraska last week, an ugly 9-for-23, but otherwise he has thrown multiple touchdown passes in every game this season except at Purdue. Apparently, there is some Trojan hiccup on the road against the lesser half of the Big Ten, but fortunately, this tilt is at home.
Maiava has thrown multiple touchdowns in six of eight games. Making it seven of nine should come with a profit.
Jayden Maiava 3+ TD passes
Maiava may have thrown 3+ touchdown passes in only two games this season, but this payout would have expected it in three. Actually, to be precise, in 2.7 of USC’s eight games.
That may be somewhat dubious math, but it underscores the thought that this price is not an outlandishly low one.
If it nonetheless seems low, then relish the thought that USC ranks No. 3 in the country in quality drive rate, reaching scoring territory on 59.5% of non-garbage time possessions, per CFB-graphs.com. For all its strengths, the Northwestern Wildcats' defense is only middling in that regard, giving up quality drives on 40.3% of opposing possessions, No. 8 in the Big Ten.
The Wildcats’ defense has been a distinct liability in these terms against Nebraska, Penn State, and Oregon, teams more akin to USC than the rest of Northwestern’s schedule (Tulane, Western Illinois, UCLA, Louisiana-Monroe and Purdue).
If the Trojans reach scoring territory on half their possessions, as should very much be expected, then Maiava may have five or six looks at the end zone.
Preston Stone Under 162.5 passing yards
In his last three games, Northwestern quarterback Preston Stone has cleared this meager prop just once, by half a yard at Penn State. Including that relative success, Stone has cleared this line just twice in seven games against FBS opponents this season.
He has averaged 161 passing yards per FBS game, often nearing this number but so rarely clearing it.
Meanwhile, USC has held its last two opponents — Nebraska’s Dylan Railoa and Notre Dame’s CJ Carr — to 98 and 136 passing yards, respectively.
All due respect to Stone, but both Railoa and Carr are leaps and bounds better as quarterbacks, not to mention the Cornhuskers and the Irish having far superior offenses in totality.
Northwestern’s best approach on Friday night will be to shorten the game and hope its defense can hold up. Stone throwing incompletions will not mesh with that best hope. Instead, the Wildcats may take the ball out of his hands entirely.
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