New Mexico State vs Hawaii Picks and Predictions: Is Hawaii Offense Ready for War?

The Rainbow Warriors return in front of their home crowd here but will do so with a depleted offense. Find out how their injuries will impact their fortunes with our New Mexico State vs. Hawaii picks.

Last Updated: Oct 23, 2021 7:59 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Chevan Cordeiro Hawaii Rainbow Warriors college football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

For the second time in the last month, the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors will face off against the New Mexico State Aggies in a rare Mountain West double-dip. 

Hawaii won in Las Cruces in September and now will welcome fans in to watch for the first time this season. 

Find out how it will play out the second time with our free college football betting picks and predictions for New Mexico State vs. Hawaii on Saturday, October 23.

New Mexico State vs Hawaii odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Hawaii opened -18.5, but the line has moved to -18 across most books at the time of this writing.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

New Mexico State vs Hawaii picks

Picks made on 10/21/2021 at 10:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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New Mexico State vs Hawaii game info

Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
Date: Saturday, October 23, 2021
Time: 11:59 p.m. ET
TV: Comcast NM, Bally Sports AZ, FloFootball

New Mexico State vs Hawaii betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

New Mexico State: Robert Downs III WR (Questionable), Dominic Gicinto WR (Out), Weston Eget QB (Out)
Hawaii: Chevan Cordeiro (Probable), Dae Dae Hunter RB (Questionable)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog. Find more NCAA betting trends for New Mexico State vs. Hawaii.

New Mexico State vs Hawaii predictions

It’s not often that two teams face each other twice in the same regular season in college football. This rare situation makes for an intriguing handicap, but it’s certainly of importance to examine the prior matchup to glean insights for Saturday’s matchup.

Although Hawaii won 41-21 in the prior meeting only 28 days ago and posted 492 yards of total offense, it wasn’t as flawless of a victory as it might initially seem. The Rainbow Warriors held a narrow 17-13 halftime lead and benefited from a slew of Aggies turnovers in the second half to pull away. New Mexico State managed over 400 yards of offense, an encouraging sign that the offense will be able to move the ball yet again against a Hawaii defense that has allowed 1,383 total yards in its past three games.

Things aren’t going perfectly health-wise for Hawaii. Quarterback Chevan Cordeiro hasn’t started since injuring his shoulder in the previous matchup (although he was peculiarly used as a punter last week), and true freshman Brayden Schager has been uninspiring in limited reps, throwing four interceptions against Nevada last week and averaging only 4.8 yards per attempt overall. 

Running back Dae Dae Hunter’s status is also in doubt after leaving the Nevada game with a hip injury — concerning news considering he scored both the team’s touchdowns in that game and compiled 174 yards on only eight carries. 

It’s easy to look at the prior matchup and expect the same outcome, but that’s certainly not a given considering Hawaii’s health concerns. The Rainbow Warriors also narrowly covered this spread in September despite three New Mexico State turnovers. Any change in the turnover margin or regression for Hawaii’s offense could lead to a New Mexico State cover.

As an added comfort, the road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. We’ll take the points with the Aggies. 

These two combined for exactly 62 points the last time out and both offenses moved the ball effectively. With Hawaii injured at both the quarterback and running back positions, it’s reasonable to expect a step back offensively. If Cordeiro can’t go yet again, the coaching staff may opt for a more conservative approach.

Hawaii has been trending aggressively to the Under, cashing in each of its last four games overall and sitting at 2-5 O/U on the year.

Playing in front of their home crowd hasn’t energized this Rainbow Warriors offense, as they’re 5-1 to the Under in their last six home games. 

Neither team has had much success at quarterback. New Mexico State’s Jonah Johnson is averaging only 6.0 yards per attempt while fill-in Hawaii starter Schager is sporting a minuscule 4.8 yards per attempt. Even if Cordeiro is cleared to start, he may be limited as a dual-threat while playing through his shoulder injury.

We’re taking the Under.

College football parlays

Did you know that if you parlayed our New Mexico State vs. Hawaii picks, you could win $25.84 on a $10 bet?

Use our college football parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

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