Why are the Nebraska Cornhuskers and the Cincinnati Bearcats meeting in Kansas City? Money, mostly. But there are worse ways to ring in a holiday weekend than a few days along a river.
My Nebraska vs. Cincinnati props and college football picks do not expect a particularly entertaining game, focusing on the Cornhuskers’ ground habits and some Bearcats’ Unders.
Nebraska vs Cincinnati props for Week 1
Johnson o74.5 rush yds (-114)
Sorsby u23.5 rush yds (-114)- Sorsby u215.5 pass yds (-114)
Prop bet #1: Emmett Johnson Over 74.5 rushing yards
Both raw stats and advanced metrics recognize the improvement in the Nebraska Cornhuskers' offense after Dana Holgorson took over playcalling last November.
In the 10 games without Holgorson at the helm, the Cornhuskers put together just one quality rushing performance. In the next two games, they had what would have been one of the best rushing attacks in the country, averaging 0.273 and 0.364 expected points added per rush, a way of saying Nebraska ended up better off for running the ball, distinctly better off.
Emmett Johnson was the biggest beneficiary. In nine games without Holgorson, Johnson averaged 6.4 carries per game, 4.9 yards per carry, and 31.6 yards per game. In four games with Holgorson calling plays, Johnson averaged 14.8 carries per game, 5.3 yards per carry, and 78.5 yards per game.
Holgorson had a clear preference among Nebraska’s crowded running back room.
That crowd cost a prop bet in this exact space in Week 2 last year, taking Johnson to have Over 38.5 rushing yards against Colorado. Incensed readers were in the DMs as Johnson was not used all game, and then that frustration amplified when he took one late carry for three yards, thus turning hopefully voided bets into losing bets.
That crowd is not a concern anymore. Holgorson leans on Johnson.
Prop bet #2: Brendon Sorsby Under 23.5 rushing yards
The Cincinnati Bearcats return just one starting offensive lineman. More concerning, Scott Satterfield is staking his employment on transfer linemen from Ball State and South Dakota.
At some point, more coaches need to realize that offensive lines cannot be imported via the transfer portal. There is simply not enough talent there. Offensive lines need to be developed.
Nebraska’s defensive line should expose that weakness, and Bearcats quarterback Brendon Sorsby may turn some pressures into sacks, getting hauled down 19 times in 12 games last year.
Every yard lost on a sack pulls from Sorsby’s rushing totals, an idiotic fact about college football but one that can still yield us profits.
Prop bet #3: Brendon Sorsby Under 215.5 passing yards
Returning only one starting offensive lineman will rush some of Sorsby’s passes, and returning all of three catches from last year’s receivers raises worries about who those rushed throws will find.
Sorsby has a strong arm, but Cincinnati’s offense should simply be broken to start this season. The best bet with the Bearcats is to take Unders early in the season, as their defense returns three veterans in the front-six that should set a solid tone.
Under 51.5 should be a breeze if Sorsby fails to throw for 200 yards.
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