North Carolina State vs Stanford Picks & Props
NCST vs STAN Picks
NCAAF PicksIn four of Stanford's last five FBS games, it has allowed 35+ points. NC State's offense is a little sporadic, so I'd only play its team total Over up to 32.5, but it has an opportunity to light up the Cardinal. QB CJ Bailey has put up a 72+ QBR in four of his last five games and has the Wolfpack ranked top 40 in pass success rate (47.6%).
These teams are combined 9-4 to the Over this season, but I'd only take the Over at 55.5 or better. Stanford's defense is one of the worst in the country, ranking 127th nationally in success rate (50.1%). NC State has the talent to take advantage, especially with its passing attack. But the Wolfpack defense is similarly terrible (124th in net EPA per play) and should help the Over hit.
NC State is flawed, but at least it's competitive, and coming off a bye, I like the Wolfpack to cover up to -8.5. The Cardinal have lost their last two FBS games 115-10 and four of their last five FBS games by at least 28 points. NC State QB CJ Bailey should be able to expose a Stanford defense that's 127th nationally in success rate (50.1%).
Stanford's defense ranks outside the top 115 in EPA per pass, EPA per rush, and available yards percentage (57.3%). The Cardinal are going to get into a hole early against a solid NC State passing attack. That should lead to Stanford going to the air plenty to try and push a shaky Wolfpack defense that's allowing 27.7 points per game.
NCST vs STAN Consensus Picks
NCST vs STAN Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
D. Warren
(QB)
o224.5 Passing Yards
236.78 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.3
DIFFERENCE
20.46%
EV
|
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|
RUSHING YARDS
NCST
D. Gause
(RB)
o61.5 Rushing Yards
73.44 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.9
DIFFERENCE
25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
STAN
M. Ford
(RB)
o79.5 Rushing Yards
84.53 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.0
DIFFERENCE
18.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
STAN
B. Blackburn
(TE)
o28.5 Receiving Yards
36.85 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.3
DIFFERENCE
24.52%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
STAN
J. Onovughe
(WR)
o24.5 Receiving Yards
31.21 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.7
DIFFERENCE
23.49%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
STAN
C. High
(WR)
o39.5 Receiving Yards
46.17 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.7
DIFFERENCE
22.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
STAN
N. Brown
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
54.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.7
DIFFERENCE
18.73%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Over is 6-0 in Cardinal last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Cardinal last 4 games following a straight up win.
Over is 8-1 in Wolfpack last 9 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 6-1 in Wolfpack last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 in Wolfpack last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Wolfpack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 5-1 in Cardinal last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 5-1 in Cardinal last 6 games following a ATS win.