A subset of four teams is pulling away from the field in the National Championship odds this season, not that there is an overwhelming favorite even among those four.
This will be the theme of 2025. There is still an elite class of teams, but they are not as removed from the rest of college football as usual. The Ohio State Buckeyes, Georgia Bulldogs, Penn State Nittany Lions, and Texas Longhorns will remain atop the title odds as long as they each avoid any second loss.
A second loss would obviously put each just one more loss away from possibly-to-likely missing the Playoffs. In many respects, that is the greatest determining factor in the national championship odds amid a 12-team Playoff, the viability of a path simply to the Playoff.
Latest College Football National Championship Odds: The Curious Second Tier
Then come the LSU Tigers, Oregon Ducks, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, and even still the Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama’s humbling loss at Florida State in Week 1 did not dash the Tide’s odds as you might have expected, despite a week to mull that defeat.
But perhaps it should have. Alabama sits at +1600 at FanDuel, odds that are simply too short for a team that should miss the Playoff altogether. With games against Georgia, South Carolina, LSU, and Oklahoma yet on the schedule, it is not hard to see the Tide finishing the season 9-3 with no wins over Top-10 opponents. Such a résumé should be left out of the Playoff.
Such conversations are natural when Alabama is one of the biggest risers from last Sunday to this, slipping up to +1600 from +1700. Yes, that is a small move, but it is still an unexpected shift in that direction, especially as LSU also ticked that way to +1000 from +1100.
Let's update my @Covers projected bracket.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) September 7, 2025
After two weeks of results, my best guess at what will come our way by December: https://t.co/okjqriva4l pic.twitter.com/sLbymNt8Tr
Looking at odds from last Sunday morning, Aug. 31, compared to ones before the sun comes up on Sept. 7, Ohio State moved to +550 from +600, Texas from +700 to +750, and Oregon from +1100 to +1200.
The Ducks’ demolition of Oklahoma State on Saturday was rather predictable. Mike Gundy should have had the common sense not to antagonize Dan Lanning. But it was still a testament to the pure talent on Oregon’s roster, the kind that could develop through the season and be a force in the winter.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame dropped to +1500 from +1200, and Clemson plummeted to +2200 from +1600. That should be expected when struggling for a full half against Troy.
Those are the most notable moves in a week where no Top-10 team lost.
No. 12 Arizona State already had diminished title odds because of the chaos that will be the Big 12 regular season. Until a clear conference favorite emerges in the Big 12, that uncertainty will drag down the national championship odds of every team in the conference. Currently, Utah’s +10,000 odds lead the way for the Big 12 in the national picture.
And no one should be weighed sincerely in this conversation outside the second tier. The 12-team Playoff requires a level of talent to survive 3-4 games with those stakes. Tough break, Miami and Texas A&M.
Latest National Championship favorites
- Ohio State +550
- Georgia +600
- Penn State +650
- Texas +700
- LSU +1000
- Oregon +1100
- Notre Dame +1500
- Alabama +1600
- Clemson +2200
- Miami +2500
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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