We all think we know so much, and then after just one weekend of this gloriously messy sport, we realize we know nothing.
Entering the weekend, the Texas Longhorns led the way in college football national championship odds, listed at +550 at FanDuel.
All of a sudden, no one really leads that conversation.
Latest College Football National Championship Odds: Crowded at The Top
The Ohio State Buckeyes and Georgia Bulldogs both sit together at +600, followed by the Penn State Nittany Lions at +650 (+600 for much of Saturday night) and Texas at +750.
That is the greatest gambling impact of the 12-team College Football Playoff. Even in the days of the four-team Playoff, the Longhorns' losing on Saturday would have thrown their Playoff hopes onto life support.
One more loss would have been fatal, given their schedule, which includes games against Georgia, Oklahoma, Florida, and Texas A&M.
Now, Texas can probably lose one more game this regular season and still make the Playoff. And the futures odds reflect a combination of Playoff likelihood and power ratings.
Most bookmakers will not downgrade the Longhorns’ power rating much based on one game, no matter how much Arch Manning struggled (17-for-30 for 170 yards and one touchdown with one interception). They'll trust Steve Sarkisian and Texas to figure things out before heading to Florida on Oct. 4.
The drop to +750 from +550 reflects a slight decrease in power rating, as well as a slightly increased chance of missing the Playoffs.
The Alabama Crimson Tide odds fell much further, to +1700 from +900, because their path to the Playoff is much murkier. First of all, getting dominated by what was expected to be a pedestrian Florida State team will hamper any Playoff résumé.
Secondly, the Tide still has trips to Georgia, Missouri, and South Carolina ahead of them, as well as games against Tennessee, LSU, and Oklahoma.
Navigating that SEC schedule with two losses seemed possible, but now two losses would leave Alabama at 9-3 and presumably outside the Playoff.
The drop in odds is not just about how bad the Tide looked. It is about the skyrocketing odds they miss the Playoffs entirely.
The biggest risers from this weekend? Percentage-wise, the Penn State Nittany Lions made the biggest move, to +600 and then back down to +650 from +700.
While they may be my national title pick, the real lesson from Week 1 is no one knows anything, and the title picture will consist of at least eight or nine teams this season.
Latest National Championship favorites
- Georgia +600
- Ohio State +600
- Penn State +650
- Texas +750
- LSU +1100
- Notre Dame +1200
- Oregon +1200
- Clemson +1600
- Alabama +1700
- Miami +3000
Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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