It’s time for the stretch run of the season as Week 12 brings plenty of matchups that could determine who reaches the College Football Playoff.
We’re taking a look at this week’s top games from a moneyline perspective and aim for a quality follow-up to Week 11’s unblemished record in this column.
Here are my moneyline plays and college football picks for Week 12 this weekend.
Week 12 college football moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Notre Dame vs  Pittsburgh |
(-465) |
 Arizona vs  Cincinnati |
(-215) |
 Iowa vs  USC |
(-275) |
 Virginia vs  Duke |
(+164) |
 Oklahoma vs  Alabama |
(+172) |
 Utah vs  Baylor |
(-320) |
 Texas vs  Georgia |
(-210) |
 TCU vs  BYU |
(-178) |
 Boise State vs  San Diego State |
(-142) |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 11-12.
Expert Week 12 CFB moneyline picks
Notre Dame vs Pittsburgh: Notre Dame (-465)
No. 9 Notre Dame is a wagon. The offense is averaging 7.3 yards per play, led by superstar Jeremiyah Love, and the defense has held four of its last five opponents below 4.5 yards per play. No. 22 Pittsburgh has racked up five consecutive wins, but has benefitted from soft matchups (91st in ESPN’s FPI’s strength of schedule).
Arizona vs Cincinnati: Cincinnati (-215)
Arizona is a bit fortunate to be 6-3, whereas No. 25 Cincinnati has been impressive en route to its 7-2 record. This Bearcats offense (eighth in EPA per play) will be the best unit on the field, so the defense will need to do just enough against an Arizona offense that underwhelmed against Kansas a week ago.
Iowa vs USC: USC (-275)
No. 17 USC simply has too much offensive firepower for No. 21 Iowa to match, especially in a letdown spot after last week’s last-second loss for the Hawkeyes. The Trojans are 7-2 thanks to a deadly offense (second in EPA per play), and will likely just need the defense to tread water to find a win at home.
Virginia vs Duke: Virginia (+164)
If quarterback Chandler Morris plays for No. 19 Virginia, this game is essentially a toss-up. Reading the tea leaves, it seems as though he has a 50% chance to play, so I’ll snap up the plus money on the Hoos against a putrid Duke defense (123rd in EPA per play) that makes every game an adventure. Virginia is still 8-2 and has a lot to play for, so Tony Elliott’s squad didn’t necessarily have its dreams crushed by Wake Forest last week.
Oklahoma vs Alabama: Oklahoma (+172)
There aren’t many upsets brewing in this week’s biggest games, but this could be an exception as No. 4 Alabama is simply begging for someone to hand them a second loss. The Crimson Tide don’t tackle well and have unimpressive metrics on that side of the ball (43rd in success rate), and they’re still a one-dimensional offense due to the utter lack of a running game (123rd in EPA per rush). Oklahoma’s disruptive defense (first in front seven havoc) can create issues, and the offense should improve down the stretch with quarterback John Mateer back to full health following a bye week.
Utah vs Baylor: Utah (-320)
No. 13 Utah is an analytics darling, ranking top 10 in EPA per play on both sides of the ball (10th on offense, sixth on defense). Baylor’s faulty defense (91st in success rate allowed) will be exposed here, especially in the trenches, where it’ll be a severe mismatch. Look for the Utes to move to 8-2.
Texas vs Georgia: Georgia (-210)
If we’re ranking units, No. 5 Georgia’s offense has been the best unit in this game, whereas the No. 10 Texas offense has been the worst. This game could get very interesting if the Longhorns continue their offensive improvement and the defense plays to its full potential, but there's too much projection on that side of things. Georgia is playing great football and has proven to be battle-tested, whereas I’ll need to see it before I believe it with a Texas team that's managed to underwhelm even in wins.
TCU vs BYU: BYU (-178)
No. 12 BYU had a letdown in Lubbock last week, but the 8-1 Cougars still have a lot to play for and will look better in Provo for a night game. The Horned Frogs are a talented football team, but they haven’t strung together consistent efforts, and the offense has been kept to 23 points or fewer in two consecutive games against beatable defenses (West Virginia, Iowa State).
Boise State vs San Diego State: San Diego State (-142)
This is a big game in the Mountain West, where the Boise State Broncos are tied with the San Diego State Aztecs atop the conference standings. SDSU was pathetic in last week’s 38-6 loss to Hawaii, but its nasty rush defense (first in rushing success rate allowed) will come in clutch against a Boise offense featuring a former walk-on (Max Cutforth) making his first start at quarterback.
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