Missouri vs Oklahoma Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today — College Football Week 13

With one upset of Alabama, Oklahoma vaulted from outside the College Football Playoff picture to a potential first-round host — but that hinges on winning its final two games, neither of which is guaranteed.

Missouri, meanwhile, could get a lift with the return of its starting quarterback, one of several reasons this matchup could stay tight.

And in my Missouri vs. Oklahoma predictions, I can’t completely dismiss the possibility of the Sooners following up last week’s shocker with an equally surprising home loss.

Let's get into my college football picks before kickoff comes at 12pm ET on Saturday, November 22.

Missouri vs Oklahoma prediction

Missouri vs Oklahoma best bet: Missouri +7.5 (-120)

The Oklahoma Sooners reaching the College Football Playoff would be a joy. The Sooners may feature the best defensive front in the country, one that creates chaos and puts the offense in good position. Then quarterback John Mateer can dazzle with sidearm throws or reckless runs.

But if Oklahoma reaches the Playoff, the immediate worry will be its offense where it matters most. The Sooners struggle in scoring territory, averaging just 3.05 points per quality drive, No. 102 in the country, per CFB-graphs.com.

That is an indictment, if not also an unexpected indictment for an offense featuring one of the most creative playmakers in the country in Mateer. Oklahoma simply does not consistently turn quality drives into touchdowns.

Look at the Sooners’ losses: They did not manage a touchdown against Texas and they averaged 1.75 points per quality drive against Mississippi. In last week’s upset of Alabama, they again averaged 1.75 points per quality drive.

That can be survived when the defense scores, like it did last week against the Tide, but when the defense does not find the end zone, those offensive failures loom large.

Expect Missouri to thus play it safe on Saturday. Tigers head coach Eli Drinkwitz will act savvy enough to protect the ball and see how Oklahoma reacts.

The Sooners’ inability to finish drives ruins any confidence in them covering a spread of more than a touchdown against a quality opponent, a position Oklahoma has not actually been in yet this season.

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Missouri vs Oklahoma same-game parlay

Oklahoma's struggles finishing drives lead to a John Mateer emphasis in the red zone, hence his rushing touchdowns in six of his nine games this season.

Missouri vs Oklahoma SGP

• Missouri +7.5
• Oklahoma Team Total Under 24.5
• John Mateer Touchdown

Our deep-ball SGP: Don't expect much from Sooners offense

John Mateer has fallen short of this passing yardage prop in four of his five games since returning from hand surgery, managing all of 223 in the exception against Mississippi.

This is not necessarily a reflection of Mateer's health so much as it is the quality of Oklahoma's offense, or lack thereof, when facing quality defenses.

Missouri vs Oklahoma SGP

• Missouri +7.5
• Oklahoma Team Total Under 24.5
• John Mateer Touchdown
• Under 41.5
• John Mateer Under 217.5 Passing Yards

Missouri vs Oklahoma game predictions

Missouri vs Oklahoma moneyline prediction

It is a step too bold to predict Missouri will win this game, not when uncertain who will start at quarterback for the Tigers. Beau Pribula dislocated his ankle less than a month ago at Vanderbilt, but he has been upgraded to questionable for this weekend.

With Pribula at a genuine capacity, Missouri’s offense could actually worry Oklahoma. At that point, this moneyline may demand more consideration. But Pribula’s availability, let alone his effectiveness, will not be clear until kickoff or after kickoff.

Missouri vs Oklahoma spread prediction

Do not put faith in the Sooners to cover multi-score spreads this next month, and there could be a version of the Playoff field where Oklahoma is a two-score favorite in the first round, if it happens to slide up to No. 6 via upsets to teams like Georgia, Mississippi and/or Oregon.

Oklahoma has been more than a field-goal favorite against four Power Four teams this season, going 2-1-1 against the spread in those moments. But the Sooners have yet to be a multi-score favorite against anyone better than Temple, and their offensive deficiencies as the field shortens reduce the chance of ever getting ahead in a game state against a worthwhile opponent like Missouri.

Missouri vs Oklahoma Over/Under prediction

If doubting Oklahoma to score where it matters most, then the Under suddenly holds more intrigue. Pribula’s return does not assure any Over. In fact, it may increase the likelihood of an Under, the better quarterback more capable of protecting the ball and keeping the Sooners out of short fields.

Missouri vs Oklahoma odds

• Spread: Missouri +7.5 | Oklahoma -7.5
• Moneyline: Missouri +198 | Oklahoma -240
• Over/Under: Over 41.5 | Under 41.5

Missouri vs Oklahoma trend to know

Pribula’s last four starts all went Under their totals and by an average of 9.6 points. Find more college football betting trends for Missouri vs Oklahoma.

How to watch Missouri vs Oklahoma

Missouri vs Oklahoma latest injuries

Missouri vs Oklahoma weather

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