Lane Kiffin and the Mississippi Rebels are on a mission for payback as they head to Lexington for their SEC opener against the Kentucky Wildcats.
In case you forgot, Kentucky shocked the Rebels last season with a 20-17 upset as 15.5-point underdogs — a loss that played a big role in keeping Mississippi out of the College Football Playoff.
But Kiffin went back to work in the transfer portal, reloading a roster that looks ready to contend again in 2025.
My Mississippi vs. Kentucky predictions break down how the Rebels can exorcise last year’s demons — and where to find betting value in our college football picks for this SEC clash.
Mississippi vs Kentucky prediction
Mississippi vs Kentucky best bet: Mississippi -8.5 (-110)
Last season, the Mississippi Rebels opened its SEC schedule by hosting the Kentucky Wildcats as 15.5-point home favorites. But the Rebels had lofty goals and overlooked the Wildcats, losing 20-17.’
While Mississippi must replace Dart, they’re set up nicely to exact some revenge against Kentucky this time around.
Kentucky was able to stifle Mississippi’s offense last year by controlling the clock and winning the time of possession battle almost two-to-one.
I’m not sure they’ll be able to do that this time around. Kentucky’s offense looked very one-dimensional against Toledo last week and was unable to effectively move the ball through the air with Zach Calzada under center. Calzada completed less than 50% of his passes for 85 yards.
And yes, Mississippi must replace Jaxson Dart and some other key pieces, but Austin Simmons got his tenure off to a good start, throwing for 341 yards in a 63-7 beatdown of Georgia State.
Maybe more importantly, it looks like the Rebels could have a little more balance in their game with running back Kewan Lacy.
This also isn’t the same Kentucky defense from a year ago that gave Mississippi fits. Only five starters return with all of their impact player now on NFL rosters.
After watching the Wildcats struggle with Toldeo, it is just hard to envision Kentucky keeping up with Mississippi in this spot. Lay the points with the Rebels and don’t look back.
Mississippi vs Kentucky same-game parlay
The Wildcats' pass defense took a big hit this offseason. They lost three starters on the defensive line, and their best cornerback, Maxwell Hairston, is now playing on Sundays with the Buffalo Bills. And it showed in their first game against Toledo as the Rockets threw for 270 yards.
Austin Simmons’ favorite target in Week 1 was Harrison Wallace III. He was targeted eight times, catching five of them for 130 yards and a score. Kentucky will be hard-pressed to cover Wallace without their top corner from a year ago.
Taking Wallace to go Over a modest receiving total of 44.5 and finding the endzone in this matchup looks like a great bet.
Mississippi vs Kentucky 3-Leg SGP
- Mississippi -8.5 (-110)
- Harrison Wallace III o44.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Harrison Wallace III Score a Touchdown (Yes: +140)
Our deep-ball SGP: Lucky Lacy!
- Mississippi looks more balanced on offense this year.
- Kewan Lacy rushed for 116 yards and scored three times vs. Georgia State.
- Lacy looks like an every-down back scoring at the goal line and also hitting a 42-yarder for a score.
Mississippi vs Kentucky 4-Leg SGP
- Mississippi -8.5 (-110)
- Harrison Wallace III o44.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Harrison Wallace III Score a Touchdown (Yes: +140)
- Kewan Lacy Score 2+ Touchdowns (Yes: +400)
Mississippi vs Kentucky game predictions
Mississippi vs Kentucky moneyline prediction
Mississippi overlooked Kentucky last season. That won't happen again this year, particularly with the Wildcats' roster taking a step back this season.
Mississippi vs Kentucky spread prediction
Not only is this a revenge spot for Mississippi, but Lane Kiffin knows how important style points are to the CFP committee. Kentucky won't be able to keep up with this Mississippi offense and Kiffin will run up the score if he gets the chance.
Mississippi vs Kentucky Over/Under prediction
Mississippi's defense may be a work in progress, but they are talented enough to slow down a Wildcats' offense that struggled to move the ball at times against Toledo. I'm not sure Kentucky will score enough to send this one Over, so I would lean the other way.
Mississippi vs Kentucky odds
- Spread: Mississippi -8.5 | Kentucky +8.5
- Moneyline: Mississippi -300 | Kentucky +240
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
Mississippi vs Kentucky trend to know
Mississippi has covered the Spread in nine of its last 14 games for +3.50 Units and a 23% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi vs Kentucky.
How to watch Mississippi vs Kentucky
| Location | Kroger Field, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Saturday, September 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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