We could be in for an intense affair tonight when Mississippi State travels to Kyle Field to face off with Texas A&M in a key SEC showdown.
Mario Craver will take on his former team after transferring in the offseason, and my Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M predictions explain why he’s in line for a big game against the Bulldogs.
Read all about it in my college football picks for October 4.
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M prediction
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M best bet: Mario Craver Over 77.5 receiving yards (-114)
Don’t think for a second Mario Craver hasn’t had this game circled on his calendar for quite some time.
Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko can say Craver is treating this as “just another game” all he wants... but do you think the young man didn’t hear his former Mississippi State teammate Ricky Johnson say their receiving room had “a little selfishness” last season?
Oh, and let’s not forget how quarterback Blake Shapen said his current targets are “the most talented room that I’ve been a part of” before the season began. That’s gotta strike at Craver’s ego just a tad.
Craver tore Notre Dame’s pass defense apart in his breakout game on September 13, but had just four catches for 34 yards following the bye week as the Aggies defeated Auburn. That’s understandable, given the Aggies committed heavily to the ground game against an Auburn defense ranked sixth in total sacks.
But the Bulldogs have just seven sacks through five games, and they’ve allowed 15 passes of 20+ yards already. In fact, opponents are averaging an explosive pass play on almost 10% of dropbacks.
Only one receiver in college football has more 20-yard catches than Craver, and when Mississippi State played Tennessee, both Mike Matthews and Chris Brazzell II went for 100+ yards on six catches each.
The atmosphere at Kyle Field is going to be intense with a “Black Out” scheduled, and Craver will already be looking for both revenge and a bounce-back game. Getting his total this low, when he had 114+ yards in each of his first three games, feels like a steal.
Not only am I taking him to cover his total for my best bet, but I’m laddering him from 90+ yards up to 125+ yards — a prop that would pay out at +350 odds.
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M same-game parlay
Mississippi State will be without its starting right tackle, and facing a Texas A&M defense tied for sixth in the ground in sacks per game. The Bulldogs have already allowed 12 sacks, and Shapen has been hit repeatedly this season.
The Bulldogs rank Top 5 in rushing success rate. As such, I expect we’ll see them commit heavily to running the ball, and Shapen will finish with less than 200 passing yards for the fourth straight game.
The beneficiary of that game plan will be Fluff Bothwell. The Mississippi State running back looks like a bowling ball when he gets downhill, and the 5-foot-10, 230-pound back is averaging nearly six yards a carry. He’s also rushed for 328 yards in his last three games.
As well as the Aggies have played on defense, Notre Dame saw Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price combine for 162 yards on 35 carries. Texas A&M’s allowing an explosive run rate of more than 10%, and Bothwell will find a way to top his rushing total.
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M SGP
- Mario Craver Over 77.5 receiving yards
- Blake Shapen Under 205.5 passing yards
- Fluff Bothwell Over 63.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Craven the hunter
Giving the Bulldogs more than two touchdowns feels a bit high — especially against a Texas A&M defense ranked 98th in points allowed per quality drive. Mississippi State ranks 37th in that metric, and it’ll find enough scoring to cover the spread.
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M SGP
- Mario Craver Over 77.5 receiving yards
- Blake Shapen Under 205.5 passing yards
- Fluff Bothwell Over 63.5 rushing yards
- Mississippi State +15.5
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M odds
- Spread: Mississippi State +15.5 | Texas A&M -15.5
- Moneyline: Mississippi State +520 | Texas A&M -720
- Over/Under: Over 57.5 | Under 57.5
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M trend to know
Mississippi State has covered the spread in 10 of its last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Mississippi State vs Texas A&M.
How to watch Mississippi State vs Texas A&M
| Location | Kyle Field, College Station, TX |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | SECN |
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