If the Florida State Seminoles want to spring an upset at home on Saturday night, then they need to stick to what they do best: Run the ball.
Fortunately for the Seminoles, that is also the worst part of the Miami Hurricanes’ defense.
My Miami vs. Florida State predictions focus on the Seminoles’ ground game.
Read more in my college football picks for October 4.
Our best Miami vs Florida State SGP for Week 6
Florida State beat Alabama back in Week 1, in no small part, because Tommy Castellanos’s rushing attempts created such wretched run fits from the Tide defense that it would have been more accurate to say the Tide had no run fits.
However, Alabama had to know that was coming. Seminoles offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn has always run first and usually run second. Some credit simply has to be given to the design that confounded the Tide.
Now it is Miami’s turn, a defense more vulnerable against the run than the pass, and most vulnerable against snap-to-snap efficient runs than explosives. In other words, exactly what Malzahn hopes for.
That should set up Castellanos to clear this yardage prop for the third time in three FBS games this season, finding the end zone in all three games as well.
Asking Miami quarterback Carson Beck to keep up with Castellanos makes sense, especially when remembering that Virginia threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns against the Seminoles just last week.
Florida State’s defense is good, but not yet known as great, and Beck has the arm strength to emphasize that discrepancy.
Miami vs Florida State 3-leg SGP
- Tommy Castellanos Over 47.5 rushing yards
- Tommy Castellanos anytime touchdown
- Carson Beck Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
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