LSU vs Purdue Prediction: Citrus Bowl Odds and Picks

Like many games in this 2022 bowl season, the Citrus Bowl between LSU and Purdue this afternoon features teams that look vastly different from those that college football fans saw play during the regular season. Departures both on the offensive side of the ball and coaching staff for Purdue will be offset by LSU losing much of its starting defensive line and some key receivers.

That said, this game will still feature quite a bit of talent and should prove quite entertaining. Jayden Daniels threw for more than 2,700 yards and led the Tigers in rushing, and he could reach multiple milestones in this game. The same goes for Devin Mockobee, as the Boilermaker freshman back is just 80 yards away from topping 1,000 in his first season.

With so many question marks on both sides of the ball for each team, it can be a bit difficult to find a good betting angle and figure out Bowl game odds in a matchup with one of the largest point spreads of any bowl game. Thankfully we are here to help you find value in our LSU vs. Purdue college football betting picks and predictions for Monday, January 2. 

LSU vs Purdue best odds

LSU vs Purdue picks and predictions

News broke on Thursday that LSU would be without the services of receiver Kayshon Boutte. After initially announcing his intentions to play in the Citrus Bowl and playing for the team in 2023, the junior receiver has now opted to enter the NFL Draft in hopes of being a first-round selection.

Boutte had a bit of a down year with just two touchdown catches, as he and Daniels never really seemed to develop the chemistry that many expected. That said, his departure adds to that of Jaray Jenkins and leaves LSU without two of its top three receivers on the year. 

But it’s the defensive side of the ball where the Tigers will feel the most loss. Defensive linemen Ali Gaye, Jaquelin Roy, and BJ Ojulari have all entered the NFL Draft, in addition to cornerback Mekhi Garner. While Roy as of now has stated he will still play, it denies the Tigers of their two best pass rushers and one of their best secondary players.

Thankfully it won’t leave the LSU defense having to worry about who covers Charlie Jones. That’s because Purdue will not have the services of the man who caught 110 passes for more than 1,300 yards and a dozen touchdowns.

He has opted out, along with starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell. After throwing for almost 3,500 yards and 22 touchdowns, backup Austin Burton is expected to take over at quarterback.

Purdue will also feel pain on the defensive side. Linemen Branson Deen and Lawrence Johnson are out of the game, a big loss for a front unit that allowed more than four yards a carry and was middle of the road in sack rate. 

The drop off in production behind Jones in the Purdue passing game is a massive one. Making matters worse, the second-leading receiver for the Boilermakers, tight end Payne Durham, has also opted out. That leaves no receiver for the team with 40 or more catches this season.

While fill-in assistant Drew Brees might be able to help draw up some plays for this offense to find points, I’m just not sure he’ll be able to get the offense going early when so many new players are having to step up.

That’s why I love LSU to be ahead by more than a touchdown at the halftime break. Head coach Brian Kelly has been known to take his foot off the gas too soon in games, and I worry LSU could allow Purdue a backdoor cover for that very reason, so stay away from the full game line. 

Purdue struggles to get to the quarterback and has been gashed repeatedly on the ground — just ask Iowa, who found a way to rush for 200 yards and put 24 points on them despite having one of the worst run games in the Big 10. Look for LSU to get some points early and be in control at halftime, while avoiding any second-half surprises. 

My best bet: LSU first half -7.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

LSU vs Purdue spread analysis

If these teams were at full strength, it would be an interesting game. But right now there’s little reason to believe Purdue has any real shot at pulling an upset.

LSU’s talent on both sides of the ball exceeds that of the Boilermakers, and having a backup quarterback throwing to backup receivers with a new coach is a daunting task in itself. That’s why Purdue opened as a huge underdog and now is getting better than two touchdowns. 

The Boilermakers reached the conference title game, but that was in large part due to the weakness of the Big Ten West. Wisconsin and Iowa both beat them, and Michigan handled them easily in the season finale. Purdue’s best wins came against Minnesota and Illinois — both fringe Top 25 teams.

LSU on the other hand had a very strong season, but fell short in the SEC Championship where it was handled by Georgia. It managed to put up 30 points, but 50 to the Bulldogs, the only team all season to score more than 38 against the Tigers.

That came the week prior at Texas A&M. They defeated Top 10 opponents Ole Miss and Alabama in consecutive games, and two of their four losses this year came at the hands of Top 10 teams.

LSU vs Purdue Over/Under analysis

The total in this game is fairly high at 56 points, but if you’re a follower of trends that shouldn’t be an issue. Purdue’s last six bowl games have all gone Over the total, as have LSU’s last four bowl games. It’s also gone Over in the Boilermakers' last four games against SEC foes, and in six of the Tigers' last seven overall.

When Purdue plays a team with a solid offense, scores have tended to get up there in 2022. Four of its last five games failed to reach 56 points, but that included tilts with Indiana, Northwestern, and Iowa. Prior to that spell, six of its first eight games hit at least 56.

LSU on the other hand has been in some shootouts this year. It saw the SEC Championship hit 80 — part of a run that saw at least 56 points scored in five of their last seven games. That was in stark contrast to earlier in the year, when just one of its first six reached the mark. 

LSU vs Purdue betting trend to know

The Over is 4-0 in LSU’s last four bowl games and 6-0 in Purdue’s last six bowl games. Find more NCAA betting trends for LSU vs. Purdue.

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