Louisiana Tech vs Florida International Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bulldogs' Offense Gives Them Betting Edge

Between a revolving door of QBs finding success and a plethora of dangerous skill-position players, the Bulldogs' offense should produce more than enough to cover the spread against an FIU defense that won't be able to stop it. Read our NCAAF picks below.

Phil Naessens - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst
Oct 28, 2022 • 16:59 ET • 4 min read
Smoke Harris Louisiana Tech Bulldogs C-USA college football
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Week 9 of C-USA action begins with a matchup between Louisana Tech and Florida International under the Friday night lights of Riccardo Silva Stadium.

Louisiana Tech is hoping to end a two-game losing streak, while Florida International is fresh off a 34-15 victory in Charlotte. 

Who will win this Friday’s C-USA clash? Find out in my free best college football picks and predictions for Louisiana Tech vs. Florida International. 

Louisiana Tech vs Florida International best odds

Louisiana Tech vs Florida International picks and predictions

We have a C-USA battle Friday night between two schools without much to play for, but Louisiana Tech should cover the spread.

Louisiana Tech is currently a 6.5-point favorite, which mainly has to do with the status of senior QB Parker McNeil. McNeil was injured in the first quarter of last week’s loss to Rice but isn’t ruled out for Friday. Junior QB Matthew Downing slung three scoring strikes in relief, but he suffered a late fourth-quarter injury and is out for Friday.

Enter freshman QB Landry Lyddy and the Bulldogs will be just fine. Lyddy replaced Downing and threw a pair of touchdowns but failed on a game-winning two-point conversion in the Bulldogs' overtime loss to Rice.

Three quarterbacks and the offense didn’t miss a beat. The Owls' defense isn’t the greatest — ranking just 99th in defensive DVOA — but it is better than the Panthers' No. 126-ranked defense. 

Fortunately for Lyddy, the Bulldogs have a pair of playmakers in wideouts Tre and Smoke Harris. The Harris brothers have combined for 1,017 receiving yards with 11 TDs, and along with TE Griffin Hebert, will give Lyddy — or whichever QB is playing — solid hands who know how to find the end zone.

The Bulldogs' offense has to make some big plays because the Louisiana Tech defense is awful. They’ve allowed over 38 points in five of their seven tilts and 120 over the past three. The Bulldogs' defensive line has more bark than bite, but the secondary can make big plays and could make an impact Friday.

Sophomore QB Grayson James leads the Panthers' offense with 1,399 passing yards and eight TD passes alongside six interceptions. Senior wide receiver Tyrese Chambers hauled in 10 passes for 143 yards in last week's win over Charlotte, and RB Lexington Joseph has scampered for a trio of TDs, but that’s about it for the Panthers' offense.

This ballgame will come down to which offense executes better against a lousy defense, and that’s Louisiana Tech. It doesn’t seem to matter who takes snaps for the Bulldogs because the offense moves well behind McNeil and Lyddy. Lyddy has an excellent offensive line, is mobile, and has two talented wideouts capable of making big plays in the Harris brothers.

The FIU defense is one of the worst defenses in the country and isn’t good enough to stop them. The Louisiana Tech defense isn’t that much better, and while I expect FIU to find the end zone multiple times, the Panthers' offense isn’t good enough to outscore the Bulldogs and won’t be able to cover the spread. 

My best bet: Louisiana Tech -6.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

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Louisiana Tech vs Florida International spread analysis

We’ve already detailed why backing the Bulldogs is the best bet, but here are some additional notes that could be helpful.

The Panthers don’t have much of an edge in this contest but are +3 in turnover differential — the Bulldogs are at zero for the season.

Louisiana Tech is 58th in points scored, but its 39.3 points allowed is the second worst in the country. Meanwhile, the Panthers score the 12th-fewest points but allow the 15th-most points in the nation.

Florida International has one of the worst third-down conversion rates in the game. Louisiana Tech converts 35% of its third-down opportunities, good for 97th in the country. 

Louisiana Tech is 2-0 ATS as the favorite, while FIU is 2-4 ATS as the underdog. 

Louisiana Tech vs Florida International Over/Under analysis

The total is set at 57 points, which seems correct for these two bad defenses. I’m leaning Over but likely will wait until Louisiana Tech announces its starting QB.

No matter how bad a defense is, the offense must execute to beat them. FIU doesn’t convert third downs, doesn’t score points, and is 75th in the country in offensive DVOA and 99th in total first downs. Conversely, the Bulldogs' opponents get a first down on at least 65% of their offensive series.

Louisiana Tech allows 260 rushing yards, while FIU yields 160 per game. This bodes well for Bulldogs freshman RB Marquis Crosby and Panthers RB Lexington Joseph. If this turns into a ground-and-pound match, the score won’t finish near the total. 

The Over is 6-1 in the Bulldogs' last seven games and 2-5 in FIU's last seven. It's also 2-1 in the past three meetings. 

Louisiana Tech vs Florida International betting trend to know

Louisiana Tech is 3-0 in its past three meetings with FIU. Find more NCAA betting trends for Louisiana Tech vs. Florida International.

Louisiana Tech vs Florida International game info

Location: Riccardo Silva Stadium, Miami, FL
Date: Friday, October 28, 2022
Kickoff: 8:00 p.m. ET

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Louisiana Tech vs Florida International weather

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