One of the first games of Week 1 in college football features a non-conference battle this evening between the Kent State Golden Flashes and Central Florida Knights.
These two teams are currently on opposite ends of the spectrum entering 2023. Kent State went 5-7 last season and lost several starters, while UCF went 9-5 in 2022 and is bringing back a good mix of familiar names and talented transfers.
I analyze the college football odds and give my best bet in my free college football picks and predictions for Kent State vs. Central Florida on August 31.
Kent State vs UCF best odds
Kent State vs UCF picks and predictions
Expectations for Kent State this season are rather neutral. Following a 5-7 record last year — during which the Golden Flashes averaged 28.4 points per game (ranked 65th nationally) and conceded 29.0 points per game (90th) — the team's roster has faced further setbacks. UCF experienced the departure of key players, including its starting quarterback, top three rushers, leading receivers, and four offensive linemen.
The Golden Flashes defensive front saw a similar exodus, losing 11 of their top 13 defenders based on playing time. To make matters worse, Kent State's recruiting efforts during the offseason resulted in the lowest-ranked class in the MAC for 2023 according to On3 Recruiting.
Meanwhile, UCF averaged 32.9 points per game and conceded 23.6 points per game during its 9-5 performance last year. The Knights incurred fewer losses during the offseason, including just one of their top three leading rushers from 2022.
Defensively, they retained the majority of their top talent, and their advantageous position is further underscored by their impressive recruiting haul. Among the names that UCF swayed in the portal are corner Fred Davis II (Clemson) and linebacker Rian Davis (Georgia).
The disparity in talent between these teams is substantial and evident given the 36.5-point spread. Led by dual-threat QB John Rhys Plumlee and running back R.J. Harvey, the Golden Flashes are poised to exploit Kent State's nascent defense.
However, the challenge with the total lies in the potential limitation of contribution from an inexperienced Golden Flashes offense. Moreover, as the game gets lopsided, UCF is likely to ease off on its intensity.
Let's isolate the first half total instead. The 1H O/U is currently set at a manageable 30.5 points — a number that should be surpassed by halftime.
My best bet: First half Over 30.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Kent State vs UCF same-game parlay
First half Over 30.5
UCF first half -20.5
This is not a game where you will find a ton of player props, so we'll stick with our best bet and combine it with the UCF as -20.5 first half chalk.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Kent State vs UCF spread and Over/Under analysis
Devin Kargman is the newly appointed starting quarterback for Kent State, and the sophomore pivot brings a degree of experience from the previous season, albeit limited. Last season saw Kargman complete 29 out of 70 pass attempts, amassing 348 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. On the other hand, starting RB Xavier Williams sat out the previous season but showcased his potential in 2021 with an impressive 812 rushing yards.
Nonetheless, Kent State's lack of experience on the offensive line will play to its detriment. With the Golden Flashes missing four starters from last year, expect UCF dominate in the tenches and lead comfortably throughout.
While I'm inclined towards the first half total as my favored wager, the full game Over of 58.5 is also in play if UCF keeps its foot on the pedal for all four quarters. Additonally, four of the last five regular season games for the Knights have gone Over the total.
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Kent State vs UCF betting trend to know
Kent State allowed 38.2 points per game on the road last season. Find more college football betting trends for Kent State vs UCF.
Kent State vs UCF game info
| Location: | FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Thursday, August 31, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
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