Welcome back, college football. Welcome back, Big 12 parity. Welcome back, chaos.
The Iowa State Cyclones head all the way to Dublin to meet the Kansas State Wildcats despite the two being only Nebraska apart. Opening each season in Ireland is a bit odd, but in this instance, it also carries with it genuine College Football Playoff implications. The Wildcats are the frontrunners to win the Big 12, despite being just 3.5-point favorites this weekend.
My Iowa State vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks expect immediate Big 12 chaos.
Kickoff comes at noon ET on Saturday, August 23.
Iowa State vs Kansas State prediction
Iowa State vs Kansas State Best bet: Iowa State +3.5 (-115)
Few things are more reliable in September (or, in this case, August) than a proven and experienced offensive line. Betting on an underdog of more than a field goal with the better offensive line is rarely a bad idea.
Add in the more veteran quarterback, and taking the underdog here makes even more sense.
That will be the most crucial matchup in Dublin, one of the top two defensive lines in the Big 12 facing an offensive line returning 106 starts. An unstoppable force vs. an immovable object is always a delight.
On the other side of the ball, it will be a stoppable force against an unknown object. And again, that is an edge to Iowa State. Kansas State returns just two starters along the offensive line, and while they are known for their development, they now have to find cohesion without longtime offensive line coach Conor Riley.
Iowa State defensive coordinator Jon Heacock is undoubtedly ready to test that offensive line. Some blitzes would not be a shock as he trusts his linebackers immensely, and the Iowa State defensive line is also underappreciated, diminished a bit in 2024 by injury.
The edge in the trenches lies with the Cyclones on both sides of the ball. Catching that hook past three with that edge is delightful value.
Iowa State vs Kansas State same-game parlay
Iowa State’s defense is the underappreciated piece of this game. It returns two defensive backs who will stress Kansas State quarterback Avery Johnson. On a relatively cold day in Dublin — in the 60s in the evening, compared to 90 degrees of late in Manhattan, Kansas — Johnson may resort to running the ball even more.
He scored at least one rushing touchdown in six of his last eight games last year in his first year as a starter. It took a few weeks for offensive coordinator Matt Wells to best understand how to use his star quarterback, but once he did, Johnson became a scoring option.
Our deep-ball SGP: Cyclones bend but don't break
If expecting Avery Johnson to struggle in the passing game, and the Iowa State defense to encourage an Under in a game that traditionally starts slowly (three of the last four games in Dublin have gone Under their totals by an average of 8.67 points), then taking the moneyline on the short underdog is a savvy play when looking for a long shot.
Iowa State vs Kansas State odds
- Iowa State vs. Kansas State spread: Kansas State +3.5
- Iowa State vs. Kansas State moneyline: Iowa State +134, Kansas State -162
- Iowa State vs. Kansas State Over/Under: 50.5
Iowa State vs Kansas State betting trend to know
Matt Campbell has gone 4-1 against the spread against Chris Klieman in the last five seasons, Klieman’s entire tenure with Kansas State. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa State vs Kansas State.
How to watch Iowa State vs Kansas State
| Location | Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland |
| Date | Saturday, August 23, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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