Saturday night gives college football fans an epic clash of undefeated teams as the Indiana Hoosiers and Ohio State Buckeyes face off for the Big Ten Championship.
Not only will the winner of this game secure the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, but the Heisman Trophy will also be decided, as Julian Sayin and Fernando Mendoza look to stake their claims.
Here are my early Indiana vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, December 6.
Indiana vs Ohio State predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
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Early Indiana vs Ohio State spread pick: Ohio State -5.5
These two teams are near mirror images of each other on paper. The Indiana Hoosiers and Ohio State Buckeyes are both atop the rankings for EPA margin, passing success rate, and net points allowed per drive. They also both rank Top 5 in EPA/rush, EPA/pass, and points allowed per quality drive — on both sides of the ball!
For me, the difference lies in two places. First, Indiana has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, but the Buckeyes have NFL talent at almost every position on the field, especially on defense. It’s why they became just the second team in the modern era to hold every opponent to fewer than 17 points.
Secondly, there was little celebration after beating Michigan this weekend. You’d think there would’ve been more excitement after finally beating “That team up north” after multiple seasons of failure, but the Buckeyes seemed to understand they’ve got more unfinished business that extends beyond that rivalry.
The difference will be the Ohio State offense getting big plays, especially through the air. The Buckeyes rank Top 20 in explosive pass rate, while Indiana ranks in the bottom half nationally in explosive run rate and pass rate allowed.
One or two big plays could be enough to decide this game, and Ohio State should find them. I like the Buckeyes to cover the spread for the 11th time in 13 games.
Early Indiana vs Ohio State total pick: Under 48.5
The love for Ohio State’s defense isn’t to say that Indiana’s defense isn’t also very good. The Hoosiers have allowed multiple touchdowns just once in their last six games, and just twice in conference play.
This feels like a game where both offenses are going to be forced to grind out possessions. Both defenses tackle very well, get after the quarterback, and limit scoring opportunities.
The Buckeyes want to run the ball and dominate the clock. They limited Michigan to just 44 offensive snaps this weekend, and their run rate above expected is one of the highest in the nation.
In Penn State’s narrow defeat to the Hoosiers, the Nittany Lions ran the ball 33 times to help set up the play-action game. It led to multiple chunk completions, as Indiana allowed six throws of 15+ yards on the day.
It’s hard to see either team putting up consistent scoring. And if Ohio State gets the lead, it’s going to pound the rock and lean on the defense. That will keep this game in the 24-17 or 27-20 realm with the total going Under.
Indiana vs Ohio State odds
- Indiana vs. Ohio State spread: Ohio State -5.5
- Indiana vs. Ohio State moneyline: Indiana +185, Ohio State -225
- Indiana vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch Indiana vs Ohio State
- Indiana vs. Ohio State matchup
- Date: Saturday, December 6, 2025, 8:00 p.m. ET
- City: Indianapolis, IN
- Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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