The eyes of the sporting world will fall on Indianapolis tonight, when the Indiana Hoosiers and Ohio State Buckeyes meet in a No. 1 vs. No. 2 matchup for the Big Ten Championship.
My Indiana vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for Saturday’s clash key on three players who have interesting matchups, both in their favor and against, where we should be able to find profit.
Indiana vs Ohio State props for Big Ten Championship Game
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Fernando Mendoza |
Under 206.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Jeremiah Smith |
Under 73.5 receiving yards | -114 |
| Max Klare |
Over 29.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Fernando Mendoza Under 206.5 passing yards
The Indiana Hoosiers thrive when throwing the ball by utilizing the run-pass option, but when the run game is stopped, or the short throws aren’t there, Fernando Mendoza has done a great job making throws downfield.
Those throws won’t be there against this Ohio State Buckeyes defense, for a variety of reasons. First of all is the NFL talent at every level of the defense.
They’ve got an excellent pass rush and a secondary that is among the best in the nation. It’s why they rank first in EPA/dropback and have allowed more than 173 passing yards just once all season.
Secondly, Indiana has struggled to prevent sacks when Mendoza drops back five or more steps, allowing one of the highest sack rates in the nation.
The other aspect is Mendoza’s struggles away from home. He’s completed 79.2% of his throws in Bloomington, with 25 touchdowns while averaging 253 passing yards.
Away from home, that completion rate dips to just 61.7%. He’s also thrown just seven touchdowns in those five games against four picks, and is averaging just 196.8 yards.
Jeremiah Smith Under 73.5 receiving yards
It’s easy to forget that Jeremiah Smith still has another full season of college football ahead of him, considering how good he’s been in less than two full seasons at the collegiate level, but his matchup on Saturday with D’Angelo Ponds is going to be a war.
How good is the Indiana cornerback? Well, he’s been targeted 39 times this season, and he’s only allowed 17 catches.
You read that right. The sophomore corner has allowed 120 passing yards the entire season. Michigan State receivers totaled 32 yards on five targets against him, the most yards he’s given up. And he didn’t give up a single yard in five games.
As good as Smith is, he’s had four games this season with less than 50 receiving yards, including the opener against Texas.
The Hoosiers held Smith to just 34 receiving yards last year. When Ponds and Smith were matched up, the corner allowed just one catch for nine yards against the receiver who stands six inches taller than him.
However, Ponds has plenty of experience dealing with that disadvantage against Smith. The two were teammates in high school, and that knowledge came in handy last season. I’m banking on him finding a way to keep him in check once again.
Max Klare Over 29.5 receiving yards
With Smith and Carnell Tate drawing all the attention on the outside, it should open some things up for Ohio State tight end Max Klare. And the Indiana defense has been prone to giving up big plays to opposing tight ends.
Penn State tight end Khalil Dinkins caught four passes for 40 yards, including a 23-yard pickup. Kenyon Sadiq caught two passes for 20 yards for Oregon, and had two more he should’ve held onto. And multiple other Big Ten tight ends picked up 20+ yard gains through the air.
Klare has registered 30+ receiving yards in just five games this season, but he’s caught at least four passes in six of his last eight. Julian Sayin has targeted his tight end 25 times over the past four games, with at least six in three of those contests.
I’m expecting Klare to have an uptick in usage, especially with Sayin facing a stronger pass rush than usual. That will help the Buckeye tight end clear his total as he becomes an important part of the game plan tonight.
Bet on CFB at FanDuel!
Make your college football bets at FanDuel, America's No. 1 sportsbook! Sign up now and by placing $5 on your first bet, you could win $300 in bonus bets if your wager is a winner!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
