Praising the Indiana Hoosiers usually comes with praise of their offense.
Landing one of the best transfer quarterbacks in this past offseason’s cycle furthered that thought, and Francisco Mendoza has lived up to the billing thus far.
But against the Illinois Fighting Illini, it may be the Hoosiers’ defense that dictates the primetime tilt.
My Illinois vs. Indiana predictions recognize the poor choice the Illini are likely to have to make.
When kickoff comes at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 20, Illinois may run too often in our college football picks.
Our best Illinois vs Indiana SGP for Week 4
No one wants to throw on Indiana these days. Opponents have run against the Hoosiers 10.2% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state, the 15th-highest rate in the county.
Why?
Because Indiana’s pass defense is suffocating thus far, as it was last season.
This is part of how the Hoosiers cover the spread so often under Curt Cignetti, going 11-3 against the spread when favored in his season-plus in Bloomington.
While Indiana enjoys an efficient passing game that can find success quite often, it forces opponents to find repeated successes rushing the ball to sustain drives.
And that is generally a failing strategy.
Illinois will still likely try it. The Illini generally call a balanced offense, but they find more success on the ground than through the air, both in terms of frequency and extent.
As a result, expect Bret Bielema to play into Indiana’s hands; Luke Altmyer will drop back less often, and Kaden Feagin will take more carries, all while essentially bettering the Hoosiers’ chances of winning by multiple possessions.
Illinois vs Indiana SGP
- Indiana -6.5
- Luke Altmyer Under 219.5 passing yards
- Kaden Feagin Over 60.5 rushing yards
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